NBL grand final series: Latest news, previews for Sydney Kings v New Zealand Breakers

Worrying statistics have revealed a huge drop off from Sydney Kings in the back half of the NBL season which will give New Zealand hope as underdogs in the Grand Final series.

A late season statistical slide that’s sent the Sydney Kings into “coast mode” has opened the door for an uncompromising New Zealand Breakers side to dethrone the Kings and claim the NBL23 championship.

The Kings, the defending titleholders, have been the best team in Aussie hoops all season.

Sydney dominated for the majority of the regular season to lead the league in points and three-point percentage before producing a “concerning” drop in form in the remaining nine games.

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The Kings’ substandard form coincided with locking in top position, and the champs have conceded they took the “foot off the pedal”.

The slip in standards has seen Sydney take a step backwards in key statistical areas, including points scored, points conceded and three-point percentage.

The Kings have gone from giving up the second fewest points to the eighth most and from first in points scored to fifth in the league.

➡️ Seven points in 15 seconds
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➡️ A pure game-winning performance

Jarrell Brantley balled out last time he faced the Kings. Can he do it again in the Championship Series? 🏆

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Sydney’s late season slide has made them vulnerable heading into the grand final series, according to NBL legend and championship-winning Kings guard Shane Heal.

“I actually think the Breakers can win game 1 and potentially the series,” Heal said on this week’s Basketball Show.

“They’ve got five players who can score in double figures, just like the Kings have.

“The Kings deserve to be favourites for this series. They’ve been the best team in the league, and they are the reigning champions, so it is theirs to lose.

“But the Breakers are 11-3 on the road. They are not scared of going on the road and they bring a whole lot of offence.

“But it’s their defence, mobility and toughness that is going to trouble the Kings.”

Heal identified New Zealand’s defence as the key to beating the Kings.

The Breakers possess the league’s best defensive record on the back of potent frontcourt duo Jarrell Brantley and Derek Pardon.

Heal believes Brantley and Pardon’s athleticism will help the New Zealanders contain Kings star forward Xavier Cooks while Breakers’ back-court defence will limit scoring from the guards.

It's 1st vs 2nd for the NBL Chip & we take a deep dive into the series matchups in this week's Points Made thanks to UPCOZ! Here's some of the analysis from @ShaneHeal & @derekrucker5 - be sure to hear the extended discussion in our full show:
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“Will McDowell-White and Izayah Le’afa are both are really good players to defend the pick and roll against Walton Jr and DJ Vasiljevic,” he said.

“The Kings should be favourites to win the series, but I think the Breakers can cause some problems.”

Sydney and New Zealand are loaded with superstars, but Heal says underrated Breakers big man Rob Loe could prove to be the difference maker in the series.

Loe is only averaging 5.96 points per game, but he is shooting at 57 per cent from the field and has the ability to punish the Kings with his 211cm frame.

“The Kings traditionally have such a deep drop, so if you’ve got guards getting in there and you’ve got someone like Loe that sets the pick and pop, they either have to get in rotation or someone is going to get open,” Heal said.

“Loe is capable of being able to knock that down against that style of defence.”

Robert Loe looms as a key figure for New Zealand.

Sydney coach Chase Buford recently addressed his side’s late-season struggles.

He felt like the Kings intimidated rival teams during the middle part of the season before losing their way when a finals berth was clinched.

“We lost a little bit of that spark and went into coast mode or whatever you want to say and have struggle to find that rhythm, or drive, or juice or whatever you want to call it since,” Buford said.

“At the same time, not only people wanted to knock us off, but everyone at the end of the season we played was playing for their lives and I think we lost just a little bit of that edge and getting that back through the course of the first round was somewhat there.”

Former NBL MVP Derek Rucker has been high on Sydney’s championship chances all season, but he can see some cracks in the Kings’ armour.

Barry Brown Jr is a key player for the New Zealand Breakers. Photo: Steve Bell/Getty Images.

Rucker is concerned about the Kings’ defensive depth being strong enough to contain Breakers stars like Barry Brown Jr and Brantley.

“I’m wondering who is going to stop Brown Jr for the Kings,” Rucker said.

“Who can guard him in isolation situations, who can pick him up in transition and his movement off the ball?

“Now that is probably going to come down to Derrick Walton Jr but primarily it will be the case of Justin Simon, who should have been in the running for defensive player of the year.

“The only problem is that if you focus on Brown too much, the Breakers have also got Brantley who is also going to have to be guarded by Simon.

“Some of the Kings defensive liabilities I think may be exposed in this series.”

It’s why Rucker is tipping New Zealand to beat Sydney in the championship series, starting with Game 1 at Qudos Bank Arena on Friday.

“I think New Zealand are a better team,” he said.

“They’ve got more depth and I’m going to go with them to win the series.”

KINGS’ LATE SEASON SLIDE:

Sydney in the first 22 games of the season (record of 17-5)

Points Per Game – 95.1 (1st in the NBL)

Points Against Per Game – 85.0 (2nd in the NBL)

Field Goal % – 49.6 (1st in the NBL)

Three-Point % – 36.6 (Tied 1st in the NBL)

Sydney in their last 9 games of the season (record of 4-5)

Points Per Game – 93.6 (5th in the NBL)

Points Against Per Game – 93.6 (8th in the NBL)

Field Goal % – 43.8 (9th in the NBL)

Three-Point % – 35 (6th in the NBL)

Chase Buford recently addressed his side’s late-season issues.

KINGS STARS READY TO EMBRACE THE HATE

Michael Randall

There’s more at stake in this grand final series than a second-straight NBL title for combustible Sydney Kings’ sharpshooter Dejan Vasiljevic.

The gun guard’s No. 1 priority is helping his team topple New Zealand to create a piece of history in the Harbour City but he’s also aware the eyes of national selectors will be on the 25-year-old in what might be a last chance to bed down a Boomers berth among a swathe of Aussie NBA stars at August’s FIBA World Cup.

“I’m not here for individual accolades or trying to prove things to people, it’s just about winning a championship — but everyone wants a winner on their team,” Vasiljevic, who did not play in last week’s cup qualifiers due to the Kings’ impending title tilt, said.

The Boomers, coming off a generational bronze-medal achievement in Tokyo, are flush with talent – a good problem for coach Brian Goorjian and national selectors to have.

Vasiljevic is competing with the likes of veteran Melbourne United marksman Chris Goulding and NBA rookie Dyson Daniels for a spot on 12-man team and is excited by the prospect of suiting up alongside the country’s finest.

Xavier Cooks drives to the basket against New Zealand.

“Having the likes of Josh Giddey, Patty Mills and Joe Ingles and other stars like Dante Exum, who is killing it in Europe, and Nick Kay in Japan, on the team, to be a part of that would be pretty amazing,” Vasiljevic said.

“I think I’d be able to hold my own and it’s all about culture and coming in and fitting in the right way.”

A big performance against New Zealand in the best-of-five series would strengthen Vasiljevic’s Boomers claims as he and the Kings channel the basketball world’s hatred into the clash with the Kiwis.

“We’ve taken on the fact that nobody likes us, it’s the Kings v everyone else and that’s the motto we’re going to live by,” the 25-year-old said.

“It mostly comes out of the west in Perth and they’ve won multiple grand finals but now they’ve missed two and we’ve made the last two.

Breakers coach, Mody Maor.

“But no one wants us to be successful. We’ve got a very passionate ownership group, starting with Paul Smith, he leads the charge and hopes for us to back it up.

“We definitely feel it when we’re in the arena, no one likes us, everyone seems to play their best game against us, but we wouldn’t want it any other way.”

Vasiljevic praised the Breakers – who have been somewhat of a bogey team for the explosive sharpshooter – for their effort in going from last place in NBL22 to the grand final.

“Big shout out to them, they’re going to be physical, play aggressive defence, hard shows and offensively they’ve got so many weapons, so it’s about bringing the physicality for us to match it, starting defensively, getting up into the ball and then, once we get stops, get out and run,” he said.

DJ averages double-digit scoring against every team in the NBL this season – except the Breakers. His 8.7ppg comes on just 32 per cent shooting from the field and 28.6 per cent from deep, with key NZ defenders Barry Brown and Tom Abercrombie keeping him well below his season marks.

Dejan Vasiljevic has plenty at stake in the Grand

“There’s a lot of teams who lock into me defensively but that gives other players an opportunity in our team to go off,” he said.

“We’ve got Xavier Cooks, he’ll go off, you’ve got Derrick Walton Jr, I think I just bring such a presence being on the court, even if I shoot a low percentage. It’s about me watching the film before game one and picking and choosing my shots.

“Barry’s physical, just the way he plays up and in, he’s a tough-nosed defender and then Tom, he’s just very long and athletic, so it’s watching how to beat both of them and whoever else matches up on me.”

Regardless of how he shoots it in the grand final, you can guarantee there will be a DJ moment that breaks NZ hearts, just as he produced in game two of last season’s series against the JackJumpers.

“I’ve got a lot of belief and confidence in myself and the coaching staff and my teammates understand if they need someone to hit a big shot, they can turn to me,” he said.

“If it’s a win, it’s a team win, if we lose, it’s on me. I just relish those moments and I think I’ve grown into it.”

Originally published as NBL grand final series: Latest news, previews for Sydney Kings v New Zealand Breakers