Which two teams do the stats back to make Super Bowl LIX? NFL Championship Round Preview

Only four teams remain: who are the two that the stats back to meet in New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX?

Jaymz Clements

@jaymzclements

4 min read

January 23, 2025 - 1:39PM

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NFL Playoffs Champions Round Week 3 Preview with NFL Straya

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A ticket to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX is on the cards this week after one of the all-time great weeks of NFL action.

Last week the NFL playoffs delivered a jaw-dropping Divisional Round, with four wildly entertaining games seeing a huge upset, a devastating last-gasp loss and plenty of angst, but in the end, NFL fans now have a pair of AFC and NFC Championship Games for the ages.

With the NFC’s No. 1 seed Detroit being knocked out by the Washington Commanders and rookie QB Jayden Daniels, the scene is set for a huge NFC title game featuring two divisional rivals as the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Eagles host Washington, following the Eagles heart-stopping snow-game win over the LA Rams.

In the AFC the two-time reigning Super Bowl champs Kansas City held off CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans with a helping hand from the ref crew and the re-emergence of Travis Kelce to now welcome in long-time rivals Buffalo, after Josh Allen and company rode a huge pair of Mark Andrews miscues to fend off the Baltimore Ravens.

Monday now delivers two incredibly fascinating Conference Championship games.

While the Bills are 4-0 over the Chiefs in their last four regular season games, Kansas City and Buffalo have met in the post-season three times in the past four seasons - with Kansas City winning all three of those playoff match-ups, including one of the best games of all time, the infamous ‘13-seconds’ AFC Divisional Round matchup in 2022.

Meanwhile, the 6-seed 12-5 Commanders visit their divisional rival Philly for the third time this season, having split the two regular season match-ups.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, both the higher seeds are heavy favourites to make it through to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on February 10, with the 15-2 Chiefs 9-0 at home this season, and 15-0 as a favourite (and Mahomes 3-0 against Allen in the playoffs), while 14-3 Philly went 10-1 at the Linc (including nine straight), and are 13-3 as a favourite this year.

But there are two stand out stats that perhaps give two of the four remaining teams more than a glimmer of hope.

First, Buffalo’s offence this season has been substantially more efficient than Kansas City’s, and that was never more evident than last week, when last week against Houston the Chiefs running game managed less than 70 yards, and the passing game outside of Travis Kelce’s 117 yards managed a total of 9 completions and 60 yards.

The Bills defence so far this post-season has allowed only 88 yards a game on ground and 192.5 in the air. If Buffalo’s defence can contain Kelce in the passing game and stymie the Chiefs two-headed run game of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt - and on offence Josh Allen can continue to show his improved poise and patience that has seen him throw 28 TDs and only 6 INTs for the year - it stands a good chance of breaking its playoff duck against Mahomes and Kansas City.

This Sunday will be the fourth time in five seasons that the Chiefs and Bills will meet in the playoffs.

Will the Chiefs make it four straight playoff wins against the Bills, or will Buffalo end the losing streak? pic.twitter.com/bN4s9xVOR9
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 21, 2025

The other stat that screams out for consideration is the battle of the run game in the NFC title tilt.

This regular season, the Commanders run defence was ranked 30th in the league in yards allowed per game (137.5) and 8th worst in TDs allowed (18).

Even in last week’s 45-31 win over Detroit, Washington still allowed 201 yards on the ground to Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions.

On the flip side, Philly’s run game behind superstar running back Saquon Barkley was ranked 2nd in yards per game (179.3) and were equal-2nd in rushing TDs (29).

Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles against the Los Angeles Rams. Picture: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Behind Aussie Jordan Mailata, Barkley has rushed for 2,005 yards and 13 TDs on 345 carries this year.

If Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is healthy and able to utilise receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in order to open up the run game with Barkley, it could be a rough day for the Commanders and star rookie Jayden Daniels.

Add in the fact that Philadelphia owns the top defence in the NFL in terms of total yards allowed per game (278.4) and it points firmly in favour of the Eagles heading to Louisiana.

The bonus stat working in Philly’s favour?

The fact that Jayden Daniels is only the 6th rookie QB all-time to make the Championship Round.

Jayden Daniels will be just the SIXTH rookie quarterback to start a Conference Championship game since the NFL merger in 1970 ðŸ‘ pic.twitter.com/RNe2TM3YUa
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 22, 2025

... And all five of those prior to him lost.

So the big NFL Championship Round questions remain.

Will the Eagles run over the top of the Commanders defence?

Can Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offence get off to a flying start and put pressure on the Eagles defensive front the way they did to Detroit last week?

If they do... can Daniels be the first rookie QB to make a Super Bowl?

After winning the turnover battle last week 3-0, is Josh Allen able to control his game enough and look after the ball to give his offence a chance against KC?

Or will Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team do what they’ve done all year and ride their defence (and do just enough on offence) to yet another Super Bowl appearance... and a chance to become the first team ever to manage the Super Bowl three-peat?

Find out in NFL Straya’s Championship round preview above.