The recent history of top-four sides that has Geelong in trouble this year
A quick glance at past years shows how hard it is going to be for Geelong to claw its way into premiership contention over the remaining games this season.
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Geelong should deservedly hold stronger belief than any other side in the AFL given what it has achieved over the last 15 years.
But the maths are making a charge to the top four and proper premiership contention look more and more unlikely.
Saturday’s loss to Fremantle meant the Cats are two games back from the top four and three games away from the top three and they can hardly afford any slip ups on the run home.
Geelong has 13 games to come in the home-and-away season and will likely need to win 11 of them to earn the double chance, if history is any guide.
Outside of the shortened Covid season, only one team – GWS Giants in 2017 – has grabbed a double chance with less than 15 wins in the last eight years.
And 15 wins will almost certainly not be enough this year, with a strong top half of the ladder and one extra game on the calendar than most years, thanks to the insertion of Gather Round.
If we be generous and give Geelong hope of making the four with 15 victories – Collingwood finished fourth with 16 wins last year – even then the odds don’t look so great.
The Cats famously have a backended home-ground draw, with seven games to come at GMHBA Stadium.
That is an always welcome and handy buffer to help bank wins.
Even among those home games are contests against in-form teams Melbourne, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs, plus tricky meetings with Essendon and Fremantle.
Right now, Geelong should probably be underdogs in games against the Dogs in round 12 at Marvel Stadium, the Power in round 14 at Adelaide Oval and the Lions at the Gabba in round 19.
But to get to 16 wins, Geelong can only afford to drop two matches in the entire run home.
We saw last year the Cats can absolutely go on a winning run and the team will look dramatically different if a bunch of key players do make their returns by the bye, turning a middling side on paper to an intimidating force.
Yet, that intimidating force lost the first three games of the year when mostly healthy.
History tells us that teams outside the top-four almost never make premiership run but the Cats will hold firm belief they can win four on the trot in September if they hit Spring with their best side in tact.
They deserve and have earned that faith.
The way the numbers look though, the Cats may look back in anger at losses to Carlton, Gold Coast, Richmond and Fremantle in the first half of this year as the games that ruined their back-to-back dreams.
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Originally published as The recent history of top-four sides that has Geelong in trouble this year
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