The Phantom’s SuperCoach pre-season: Mid-price forward analysis
The Phantom’s SuperCoach is in full swing. Today, it’s time for mid-price forwards. Can we trust Toby Greene? Will Jack Billings play in the midfield? The Phantom runs the rule over the best mid-priced options.
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The Phantom’s SuperCoach is in full swing. Today, it’s time for mid-price forwards. Can we trust Toby Greene? Will Jack Billings play in the midfield? The Phantom runs the rule over the best mid-priced options.
THE SAINTS
Jack Billings
(St Kilda $437,600)
After averaging 109 points in the final five rounds of 2017, The Phantom thought 2018 was going to be Billings’ year.
To those who followed my lead last summer, I’m sorry.
The skilful 23-year-old exploded out of the blocks with a 133-point performance in Round 1 but it was all downhill from there – for the first half of the year anyway.
Billings spent most of his time inside 50 and failed to have any real impact in the following 10 rounds, posting seven scores of 65 or less and losing almost $200k from his starting price tag.
He was sent back to the reserves after the Round 11 clash with the Eagles but, after 53 disposals and three goals for Sandringam, Billings was recalled in Round 13.
From that point, the creative left-footer was used predominantly as a midfielder, posting three SuperCoach tons and averaging a more-respectable 93 points per game.
The big question heading into 2019 is how will coach Allan Richardson use the game-breaker?
The Phantom’s Verdict: If we could be sure Billings would start – and stay – in the midfield, he presents enormous value, regardless of how much he burned you last year.
Jade Gresham
(St Kilda $429,600)
After three years playing predominantly as a small forward, St Kilda’s Jade Gresham, who Champion Data rank as the Saints only elite player, believes he is ready to transition into a full-time midfielder.
“(I’ve been) mainly playing forward the last three years and pinch hitting in the midfield … hopefully this year I’ll do a lot of work in the midfield,” Gresham said at the start of St Kilda’s 2019 campaign.
And The Phantom thinks he’s ready, too.
In his draft year of 2014, the Northern Knights captain averaged 29 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 146 SuperCoach points per game.
On numbers, he was the best-performed midfielder in the TAC Cup.
But in his first two seasons in the competition, the creative Gresham was used in the forward line. And with a good effect, booting 41 goals and assisting 28 others in his first 40 games.
In 2018, despite being the only general forward in the competition to rank elite for disposals, goals and goal assists per game, Gresham’s midfield minutes increased and he tallied 22 more clearances and 72 more disposals than the previous season.
His potential as a full-time AFL midfielder — who can be damaging forward of centre — became obvious late in the season. In his first 56 games, Gresham tallied 24 disposals or more on just two occasions.
The first-round draft pick reached that mark in four of the final six games of 2018.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’m a huge fan but the price makes it hard to squeeze him in. As does the make-up of St Kilda’s best 22. But he’s a smoky for top-6 forward status.
NEW COLOURS
Tom Lynch
(Richmond $425,600)
When you are a key-forward playing in a team which struggles to get the ball to you on a regular basis, it’s hard work.
In 2018, Gold Coast averaged 47 inside 50s per game – the second-lowest in the competition – and only one more in 2017.
Still, Lynch posted some impressive numbers during his time at the Suns.
The 26-year-old kicked more than 40 goals in four consecutive between 2014 and 2017 and took a league-high 62 contested marks in a standout 2016 campaign.
Last season, Lynch recorded a huge 180 points against the Blues in Round 2 before failing to score more than 71 in six of the next eight games and then succumbing to a persistent knee injury in Round 14.
But it’s a different story at Richmond in 2019.
The Tigers put the ball inside 50 13 more times per game than the Suns last season and took, on average, 13 marks inside 50 per game – the second-most in the competition.
The Phantom’s Verdict: If he can fit into Richmond’s structure, an average of 90 or more is almost a given.
BIGGER ROLE
Brandan Parfitt
(Geelong $425,600)
In 2018, the 20-year-old added a huge 26 points to his average after posting five SuperCoach tons, including a 168-point performance against the Saints in Round 4.
The tough midfielder-forward was averaging 104 points per game in the opening five rounds before a foot injury saw him miss the following four weeks.
And, although he posted three more scores in excess of 100 in his final 13 games, Parfitt couldn’t recapture the same form and finished with a 80-point season average.
But it was still an outstanding season for a 20-year-old in his second year in the competition.
In a star-studded Geelong side, Parfitt ranked second for tackles inside 50, third for goal assists and fourth for total tackles and marks inside 50, despite missing a month of football.
And going by pre-season reports, Parfitt’s midfield time could increase in 2019 after improving his endurance and starring in recent match simulation.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Get ready for another scoring spike in 2019.
SECOND-YEAR SPIKE
Jack Higgins
(Richmond $392,700)
Despite spending most of his debut season forward, Higgins posted six scores of 87 or more, including two SuperCoach tons, in 18 home-and-away matches.
Then, in his first final, the 19-year-old tallied 20 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six inside 50s, two goal assists, one goal and 108 SuperCoach points.
With the Tigers winning the clearance 56 per cent of the time Higgins attended the centre bounce, expect him to feature more through the midfield in 2019.
After all, Higgins averaged 144 SuperCoach points across his entire junior career – breaking Tom Rockliff’s longstanding record — playing in the midfield.
The Phantom’s Verdict: My heart says yes but my head says there might not be enough value at the price.
THE INJURY RISK
Toby Greene
(GWS $354,600)
There is no question Greene is a great SuperCoach scorer.
As a ball-winning midfielder, Greene averaged 94 points or more in two of his first three seasons in the game.
In an unbelievable run of form, the 25-year-old averaged 128 points in the final seven games of 2014.
He then moved forward in 2015 and became a matchwinner.
While his scoring never reached the same heights, he recorded impressive averages of 83, 90 and 96 over the next three years, despite winning less possession.
Greene booted 104 goals in 64 home-and-away matches during this time and in 2016, the star Giant ranked first in the AFL for goal assists, third for inside 50s and fourth for score involvements.
But it’s his fitness and suspension history that’s come under question.
Over the past two seasons, Greene has missed a total of 21 matches and failed to play more than four games in a row last year.
A serious foot injury was the major concern in 2018 and, after ankle surgery prior to Christmas, he’s yet to recommence full training.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s a bargain if he’s ready for Round 1 but that’s no certainty. And neither is Greene staying on the park.
Joe Daniher
(Ess $277,800)
The star Bomber only managed seven games, scoring 58 or less four times, in 2018 after being put on ice after an ongoing battle with the dreaded groin injury osteitis pubis.
But in 2017, Daniher was All-Australian after a huge breakout year saw him add 19 points to this SuperCoach average.
The 200cm key forward, who finished third in the Coleman Medal, scored more than 85 points in 11 of his 22 games and posted six SuperCoach tons.
Daniher ranked sixth in the competition for marks inside 50, seventh for contested marks and ninth for score involvements.
If he can get back to anywhere near this type of form, he’s great buying at a heavily-discounted starting price.
And in a strong sign he’s on track for Round 1, the 24-year-old participated in recent match simulation at Essendon training.
The Phantom’s Verdict: A strong JLT Series showing will see his ownership spike – and for good reason.
Originally published as The Phantom’s SuperCoach pre-season: Mid-price forward analysis
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