The Phantom’s SuperCoach pre-season: Premium defender analysis

The Phantom’s SuperCoach pre-season is here. In the first session, we look at the top-priced defenders for 2019. Is Jake Lloyd too expensive? Can we trust James sicily? The Phantom runs the rule over the best premium options.

The Phantom's Pre-season: Premium Defenders

The Phantom’s SuperCoach pre-season is here. In the first session, we look at the top-priced defenders for 2019. Is Jake Lloyd too expensive? Can we trust James sicily?

The Phantom runs the rule over the best premium options priced at $475k or higher.

Jake Lloyd, right, is the early favourite to finish as the top-ranked SuperCoach defender in 2019.

SURE THINGS

Jake Lloyd

(Sydney , $608,000)

After recording a season SuperCoach average of 87, despite averaging 26 disposals per game, some shared the view – The Phantom included – Lloyd was not damaging enough to make up for the uncontested nature of his game and become an elite scorer.

How wrong we were.

In 2019, although he failed to win more contested possession, the 25-year-old, through a sheer weight of numbers, added a huge 25 points to his average.

Lloyd amassed 639 disposals, hitting the target with 507 of them, ranking him fifth in the competition. The skilful defender ranked second for kicks, second for rebound 50s and fourth for metres gained in the AFL in an outstanding season which earned him a place in the All-Australian squad.

Lloyd posted seven scores of 120 or more, three of them in excess of 140 to finish as the seventh-ranked scorer in the game.

His team-mates trust him with the ball in hand and always look to him as the go-to man out of defence. Unless heavy opposition attention comes, Lloyd should maintain his scoring.

And given he took majority of Sydney’s kick-ins last season – and there were a few with the Swans ranking as the hardest side to convert scoring shots against in the past three seasons - his numbers could even increase with the new stat ruling.

THE PHANTOM’S VERDICT: Hard to see him falling out the top-3 scorers in 2019 and, with a number of popular defenders sharing the round 14 bye, the Swans week off in Round 13 helps. Starting price point could be the only issue.

Rory Laird

(Adelaide $587,600)

Joining Lloyd in the likely top-three is the Adelaide ball magnet.

Just when you thought he couldn’t win any more football, he does.

Laird increased his disposal average from 27 to 29 in 2017 before pushing the figure to 32 last season, ranking him fourth in the competition.

The 25-year-old reads the play better than most with only Alex Rance, James Sicily and Phil Davis tallying more intercept possesions per game in 2018.

And while we’re talking decent company, only Tom Mitchell averaged more effective disposals than Laird.

The All-Australian defender, who finished sixth in the Brownlow Medal and won Adelaide’s club champion award, added eight points to his SuperCoach average despite the Crows winning three less home-and-away matches last year.

Laird’s consistency has improved, too with the neat-kicking right-footer posting 13 SuperCoach tons and scoring 84 points or more in all-but one game. He failed to reach that mark seven times the previous year.

THE PHANTOM’S VERDICT: As safe as selections come, given the Crows should bounce back in 2019. Lock him in.

James Sicily, middle, at Hawthorn training.

CAN WE TRUST THEM?

James Sicily

(Hawthorn $570,400)

Can we really trust the playmaking Hawthorn defender? No.

But will some SuperCoaches still pick him anyway? Definitely.

And they should – you don’t win by playing it safe.

While Sicily was suspended on two separate occasions last year and missed a further six weeks through injury, the aggressive 24-year-old posted eight SuperCoach tons – four of them in excess of 120 – as he made his name as a premier intercepting defender.

Sicily averaged 23 disposals per game – 18 of them effective – seven marks, five rebound 50s and nine intercept possessions in 2018.

And, given his effectiveness by foot, Sicily took the most kick-ins at the Hawks and should also benefit from the scoring change.

Of all defenders last season, only Lloyd, Laird and Elliot Yeo, who has lost his dual-position status, averaged more SuperCoach points last season.

THE PHANTOM’S VERDICT: Sometimes, even though you can’t trust someone, you just have to take the plunge. There are safer selections in SuperCoach but Sicily’s ceiling is as high as any in the defender pool.

Jeremy Howe

(Collingwood $497,200)

Although he did miss five home-and-away matches through injury last season, Howe’s trust issues aren’t related to his ability to stay on the park.

It’s the inconsistent scoring.

In the past three seasons, excluding the injury-affected Round 19 score in 2018, Howe has posted 12 scores of 120 or more but also failed to score more than 70 on another 12 occasions.

It’s the reason the high-marking Collingwood defender has failed to average more than 94 points in his career.

But the scoring ceiling is there as the 30-disposal, 12-mark, 149-point performance against the Tigers in Round 6 last year proves.

Can he put it all together in 2019?

THE PHANTOM’S VERDICT: Looms as a nice point-of-difference and could be slightly underpriced given scoring potential.

Carlton veteran Kade Simpson shows no sign of slowing down in his 17th season.

THE VETERAN

Kade Simpson

(Carlton $570,300)

After the 34-year-old’s average fell by 12 points in 2017, it looked like his days as a SuperCoach premium were coming to end.

But with the season-ending injury to Sam Docherty ahead of the 2018 season, Simpson was, once again, the main man at half-back.

Simpson posted seven scores of 120 or more – four of them in excess of 140 – to record a season average of 105 – the second-highest of career.

With another devastating knee injury to Docherty, the responsibility again falls on Simpson, who is entering his 17th season in the competition.

But there’s no concern over his durability with the left-footer playing a remarkable 286 out of a possible 292 games in the past 13 years.

THE PHANTOM’S VERDICT: Besides a number of better-value options, there’s still no reason not to pick him.

NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK

Lachie Whitfield

(GWS $542,100)

After showing plenty of potential, a move to half-back in 2018 saw the former No. 1 draft pick take the competition by storm and earn All-Australian selection for the first time.

It also saw the dashing 24-year-old record the first three-figure average of his career – one that would have ranked him as the fifth defender last season.

A closer look reveals Whitfield averaged 110 points per game between Rounds 11 and 21 in an outstanding run of form which featured eight SuperCoach tons.

Whitfield increased his disposal average by three in 2018 and ranked fifth in the competition for metres gained and uncontested possessions per game.

And the best thing? He’s available as a SuperCoach defender in 2019.

THE PHANTOM’S VERDICT: Shares the Round 14 bye with a number of popular selections but it’s hard to see him finishing outside the top-6 by the year’s end. The only concern is greater attention from opposition taggers.

Harris Andrews is a young key defender on the rise in SuperCoach.

Harris Andrews

(Brisbane $480,100)

While, unlike Whitfield, Andrews has always been classified as a defender, 2018 was the year he announced himself as a top-line SuperCoach scorer.

Before the nasty collision with Jeremy Cameron in Round 14, the strong-marking Andrews had posted six SuperCoach tons to average 97 points after 12 rounds.

While he recorded two scores in the 60s upon return, the 22-year-old finished the year with three scores of 90 or more.

Andrews, who ranked second for one percenters per game in the AFL and averaged 16 disposals at an elite 85 per cent efficiency, is the rock of the Brisbane defence and a key defender we can bank on in SuperCoach.

THE PHANTOM’S VERDICT: If his early-season form last year is anything to go by, he’ll be worth well-and-truly over $500k very soon.