KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: 11 things you need to know for Round 23

Selecting the right captain can be the difference between KFC SuperCoach glory and heartbreak. Get the best tips from the SuperCoach investor and SuperCoach Plus.

One of the biggest days on the Australian sporting calendar is upon us — the KFC SuperCoach Grand Final.

The engines of the Grand Final motorcade – albeit virtual – are warming in anticipation for the annual parade through the epicentre of Melbourne’s barren central business district.

As always, there will be heartbreak but most importantly, there will be KFC SuperCoach glory for those who successfully navigate what looks to be a bumper Round 23 fixture.

SCROLL DOWN FOR 11 SUPERCOACH PLUS STATS TO HELP YOUR TEAM

Our resident expert and KFC SuperCoach Investor, Daniel Begala, shares his key coaching gospel that will position your side for premiership glory as the curtains draw on Season FY21.

NORM SMITH

Premierships are built on exceptional teams, coaching and game-day nous.

There is, however, always an individual performance that swings the fortunes in the premier’s favour and trumps all comers.

They like to go by the name or pseudonym of Norm Smith.

It’s when the pressure gauge is at its highest that the cream rises to the top.

So I ask you this question coaches, who will be Norm Smith in your KFC SuperCoach portfolio this weekend?

Once the teams are named on Thursday, you will need to carefully determine your non-playing loophole options and then make the all-important nomination as to who you believe is the best candidate for Norm Smith honours (ie, captaincy).

The Begala Brigade is considering the services of five big game players: Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Mitchell, Josh Kelly and Patrick Dangerfield for captaincy honours this weekend.

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Patrick Dangerfield could rise to the top in KFC SuperCoach grand final week. Picture: Alison Wynd

If you get this right, coaches, a 40-50 point buffer on your opposition could be the catalyst that inspires a KFC SuperCoach premiership celebration on Sunday night.

Run the numbers.

Run the historical match-ups and performances.

But most importantly, choose your captain (or Norm Smith) wisely.

HEROES AND HEARTBREAK

There is a heartbreak story in Grand Final week every year.

Within our quad of 30 players, there are bound to be hard-luck stories amongst the players who miss the best 22.

History is littered with tales of emergencies and 23rd men who have been painstakingly close to bathing in premiership glory.

This week, however, is different.

As we experienced first-hand during preliminary final weekend, selection carnage is an unfortunate element of our game and must be considered with the upmost trepidation.

The AFL has scrapped the pre-finals bye and this may lead to some untimely absences to key blue-chip stocks at the most pivotal moment of our year.

Don’t be surprised if one of your “emergencies” outside of the best 22 has a career performance that rockets them into contention for a premiership medallion.

Through the use of emergency loopholes, The Begala Brigade will give emergencies Tom Highmore, Jai Newcombe, Ned Reeves and Kieran Briggs every opportunity to work their way into the premiership side should their performances warrant consideration.

It’s these players who will define your premiership aspirations in the event that an epidemic of “general soreness” afflicts the top eight-bound sides in Round 23.

Another 90-plus score off the bench from Jai Newcombe could be the difference if injury strikes in your KFC SuperCoach grand final.

Once teams are confirmed, plot those loopholes, schedule reminders and prepare your side for a premiership heist.

It could be the least expected asset in your portfolio that pivots the Grand Final in your favour.

Best to luck to all readers, coaches and investors in this week’s “Big Dance”.

I hope you have enjoyed my anecdotes and KFC SuperCoach guidance this year, too, and it’s helped rocket your side into premiership contention this weekend.

Signing off in FY21,

The SuperCoach Investor.

SUPERCOACH PLUS: 11 STATS TO HELP YOUR TEAM

After weeks of pre-season planning and 22 rollercoaster rounds, we are finally here — KFC SuperCoach grand final week.

If you’re still alive in league competition, this is your chance to stamp yourself as a SuperCoach immortal.

And thousands of players are still playing for rankings bragging rights that you can carry all the way to the 2022 KFC SuperCoach season.

With trades at a minimum across the competition — more on that below — many coaches will play the final round with a less than perfect squad, for many players including an on-field zero or two.

But all is not lost. There are still buttons you can push, levers you can pull and decisions you can make to give yourself the best chance of success in Round 23.

This is where SuperCoach Plus comes into its own.

SuperCoach Plus subscribers get exclusive access to a suite of tools and stats, and weekly analysis articles like this one — plus an extra $1000 in your pocket if you claim the final weekly prize of the season.

And don’t forget your 12-month SuperCoach Plus subscription will give you access to more fantastic tools to play SuperCoach Racing (coming soon!) and SuperCoach BBL.

1. Choosing the right captain (and vice-captain) this week is more important than ever, and SuperCoach Plus has a trove of historic stats to help us get it right. There are some fantastic options across the weekend, starting on Friday night when the Bulldogs and Port Adelaide face off for a top-four spot. Jack Macrae is the obvious go-to man as the No.1 KFC SuperCoach scorer this season. He has a three-round average of 140 and only one score below 124 in his past eight, and averages 123 in his past three against the Power. Marcus Bontempelli has a very similar record — a three-round average of 124 v Port — and averages 124 at Marvel Stadium this year. The next standout is Tom Mitchell, who tackles the Tigers at 1.35pm on Saturday. The Hawks ball magnet is back to his best with a five-round average of 136.2 and while his recent record against Richmond isn’t unbelievable (average 118 in his past three), we know the Tigers give up more points than any other team to opposition midfielders. If you need to seal the deal, here are Mitchell’s past five scores at the MCG this year: 147, 142, 118, 171, 150.

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2. Don’t have Macrae, Bontempelli or Mitchell, or their scores aren’t up to scratch? There are more options to choose from. Dayne Zorko could destroy West Coast and Lachie Neale could end a frustrating year on a high if he can continue his past form against the Eagles — his past seven against them are all over 100, including 166 last year. And Saturday night’s showdown for the minor premiership could be a KFC SuperCoach goldmine. Patrick Dangerfield averages 120 at GMHBA Stadium over his career and his past five scores against Melbourne are 140, 154, 126, 138 and 155. Clayton Oliver isn’t far behind. He averages 126 in his past five against the Cats and 134 from two games at the Cattery. The trip down the highway doesn’t agree with Max Gawn or Christian Petracca as much — they average 102 and 80.7 at the venue.

3. If you get to that point in the round without a captain or need to pull something out of the bag to score a famous come-from-behind victory, we’ve got some more names for you. Josh Kelly is fresh off a big 148 against Richmond and his past three scores against Carlton are 101, 131 and 205. Teammate Lachie Whitfield averages 127 in his past five against Carlton and if you get all the way to the last game of the round, Aaron Hall scored 133 against the Crows back in Round 4 and should score well again. But the ultimate Hail Mary play could be Brodie Grundy. The Magpies ruckman looks like he’s just waiting to get to the finish line in 2021 but his record against Essendon is incredible — four of his past six scores against the Bombers are 150-plus.

Josh Kelly could finish the year with a bang.

4. Some names to avoid this round — Sam Walsh was tagged by Matt de Boer in Round 14 and scored a season-low 71 points. He has another date with the GWS tagger on Saturday night. Zach Merrett’s record against Collingwood is modest, scoring 116 earlier this year but 87 and 78 in his two previous encounters with the Pies. And Jack Steele really doesn’t like the Dockers, scoring 87, 85 and 54 in his past three against them.

5. Steele had a remarkable game against Geelong in Round 22, storming to almost 100 points at halftime then hitting a brick wall. After Champion Data’s post-match scaling Steele earned 80 points in the first half from 21 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six clearances, four score involvements and four tackles. After halftime he managed nine disposals but just two contested possessions, two clearances, one score involvement and one tackle — and 20 KFC SuperCoach points. For Tom Hawkins, the scoring was almost the reverse in the same game. He earned just 24 points in the first half from five disposals and two marks but came home like a steam train with 84 points in the second half when he had nine disposals, three goals and six score involvements including a hitout to advantage that led directly to a Geelong goal.

Max Gawn is set to present one of the biggest KFC SuperCoach selection dilemmas of 2022.

6. Max Gawn will always be a KFC SuperCoach favourite, but he isn’t the scoring powerhouse of recent times. He continues to share ruck duties with Luke Jackson, attending 52 ruck contests against the Crows last week while Jackson attended 31. Gawn had just four hitouts-to-advantage for the game — his fewest of the year — failed to take a contested mark and had just one score assist. He also lost 19.5 points from negative acts including ineffective spoils, dropped marks, hitouts sharked and free kicks against. Considering all that, he did well to finish with 100 KFC SuperCoach points!.

7. Matt Flynn, take a bow. The injured GWS ruckman won’t play this weekend but he is set to be crowned the best KFC SuperCoach buy of 2021. Flynn started the season at $123,900 and is currently valued at $400,800, a gain of $276,900 — the most of any player. His closest challenger is Hawks rookie bolter Lachie Bramble, who has added $256,400 to his starting rookie price tag — with a break even of 53 this week and a projected score of 78, he’s set to fall about $10k short of Flynn’s profit (although with Richmond’s recent form, anything is possible). Other massive 2021 money makers included Errol Gulden (+$246,300), Tom Highmore (+$237,300), Sean Darcy (+$228,700) and Jack Ziebell (+$227,500).

Matthew Flynn made a giant KFC SuperCoach profit.

8. On the other side of the coin, Brisbane’s Jarrod Berry has the unwanted title of the biggest money loser in KFC SuperCoach this season. He started the year worth $521,500 but has played just 12 matches, many affected by injury, for an average of 45 — and a whopping $263,000 price drop. Second on the list is teammate Lachie Neale, who has shed $247,200 from his sky-high Round 1 price tag. Marc Murphy (-$240,300) and Michael Walters (-$210,900) have also dropped substantially in value while the sixth-largest price drop was by Max Gawn, who has lost $186,100 despite averaging 119 points a game.

Trent Bianco made his debut at the perfect time for KFC SuperCoach.

Caleb Poulter was another popular trade target.

9. Two Magpies head the list of most traded-in players for 2021. Trent Bianco was added to 76,697 teams, making him the most popular trade target, edging out Caleb Poulter’s 71,934 trades. Callum Coleman-Jones (66,289), Jai Newcombe (64,871) and Dayne Zorko (51,021) round out the top five most-wanted. Errol Gulden was one of the best pre-season rookie selections but after he started to lose value and then got injured, KFC SuperCoaches couldn’t trade him out fast enough. A total of 97,123 pulled the trade trigger, making him the most traded out player this season ahead of Dustin Martin (86,990), Braeden Campbell (82,878), Josh Dunkley (75,612) and Tom Powell (74,264).

10. Kangaroos skipper Jack Ziebell will finish the year as the most popular player in KFC SuperCoach, featuring in 62.9 per cent of teams — a competition-high. He edges out Max Gawn (60.3 per cent), Rory Laird (58.1 per cent) and Jack Macrae (53.2 per cent). Gawn has climbed four spots from the pre-Round 1 list, with Laird the only other player to retain his top-10 ranking (climbing from No.8). Brodie Grundy was in No.1 spot in the pre-season and has slipped to No.5, but most of those around him in March have well and truly disappeared from the top 10 — Matt Rowell (No.2 to No.126) and Lachie Neale (No.8 to No.70) show how much can change in the course of a season.

Jack Ziebell finishes the season in more KFC SuperCoach teams than any other player.

11. Out of trades? You’re not alone. In total 67,916 SuperCoaches have used up their full allocation and are leaving the final round to fate (and the tips above!). And that gets even starker at the top of the rankings — of the top 10,000 ranked players, only 1359 have any trades left. Of the top 1000, 884 have zero trades. And just four of the top 100 ranked players can make a trade this week. Good luck!

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: 11 things you need to know for Round 23