KFC SuperCoach 2021: Grand Final week trade guide
Get the insight that could decide your KFC SuperCoach premiership from Champion Data’s fantasy expert. Who could get your decider off to a flyer? Plus trade tips.
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The penultimate round of the season was a disaster for plenty of SuperCoaches.
Three of the top-five scoring defenders missed through injury, while the withdrawals of Steven May and Patrick Cripps also compounded matters. In the end, many would have played one or potentially even two players short.
With the abolition of the pre-finals bye, we could find ourselves in the same predicament this week as clubs look to enter the finals fresh for a premiership assault. In saying that, the top-four teams do face off so hopefully they all go in full strength. But we could be in for another week of carnage at the selection table.
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If we turn our attention to the final round of the season, getting off to a flyer is absolutely paramount this week, especially from our vice-captain or captain choices.
If we look at the highest scoring players in opening quarters, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that Jack Macrae sits atop if the list – scoring 82 more points than any other player – averaging 40.7. He has collected at least 30 points in all but four opening quarters this season, so those with the VC on him Friday night will be hoping he gets a decent score on the board early.
One of the biggest improvers this season, Touk Miller, ranks second for points scored in opening quarters with an average of 38.6. He had 54 points to his name at quarter-time last round against Essendon, and scored a season-high 86 in Round 20 against Melbourne a few rounds earlier.
Rounding out the top-three scorers is Jack Steele with an average of 35.9. He has had at least 50 points to his name at quarter-time in three games, with a season-high of 69 in Round 20 against Carlton.
LEADING SCORERS IN OPENING QUARTERS IN 2021
Jack Macrae (WB) 40.7
Touk Miller (GC) 38.6
Jack Steele (StK) 35.9
Brodie Grundy (Coll) 34.9
Ben Cunnington (NM) 34.7
Sean Darcy (Frem) 34.5
Darcy Parish (Ess) 34.4
Sam Walsh (Carl) 33.5
Christian Petracca (Melb) 32.9
Zach Merrett (Ess) 32.7
The match margin largely dictates how many points are available in the final term. If the game is a blowout, then scoring points is a real battle, but if the game is close, then it’s a chance to really put the foot down and pump out a huge score, as Patrick Dangerfield did on the weekend, racking up 78 points in the final term against St Kilda in what was a close match throughout.
In terms of points scored in final quarters across the season, Clayton Oliver is the standout – averaging 30.4, with a high of 79 against Adelaide in Round 10. He has two other scores of at least 50 points in final quarters.
Marcus Bontempelli is a close second with an average of 29.6 points. The bulk of his final-term hauls were in the first half of the season though, scoring just 13.6, 24.8 and 19.6 points in the final term in the past three rounds. Bontempelli’s 60 points in Round 8 against Carlton is his biggest return.
LEADING SCORERS IN FINAL QUARTERS IN 2021:
Clayton Oliver (Melb) 30.4
Marcus Bontempelli (WB) 29.6
Sean Darcy (Frem) 29.5
Ollie Wines (Port) 29.2
Jack Steele (StK) 28.6
Zach Merrett (Ess) 28.1
Jack Macrae (WB) 28.1
Max Gawn (Melb) 27.5
Luke Parker (Syd) 27.0
ROOKIE WATCH
Hopefully we won’t have to rely on any rookies to make up the numbers in Round 23 as we did last week.
With a host of premiums missing last round, it was up our rookies to step up and fill the void and several of them did so admirably. Sam Durham rewarded his owners with a season-high 93 points in Essendon’s win against Gold Coast. With Jake Lloyd, Callum Mills and Steven May all expected to return for the final round of the season, hopefully we aren’t forced to call upon Durham again this round.
Jai Newcombe was another player who posted a solid score – also collecting a season- high 94 points. With an injury to James Worpel and the late withdrawal of Jaeger O’Meara, Newcombe was handed a prominent role at centre bounces – attending 10, ranked third behind Chad Wingard and Tom Mitchell. It was Newcombe’s defensive effort that once again stood out – applying 11 tackles.
Kieran Strachan came into the Adelaide side to replace the injured Reilly O’Brien and he took it right up to Max Gawn, breaking even in the hitouts-to-advantage with four apiece. Around
the ground, he recorded 11 disposals, two clearances and two tackles. He comes up against Todd Goldstein this round.
With defences in KFC SuperCoach hardest hit by injury, Jake Bowey and Nick Murray scored 62 and 64 points respectively. Bowey earned a NAB AFL Rising Star nomination on the back of his performance against the Suns, finishing with 18 disposals, six marks and five intercept possessions.
It has been another huge season in SuperCoach and as we head into the final round of 2021, best of luck to everyone in grand finals and to those that are vying for the overall prize!
ULTIMATE GRAND FINAL TRADE GUIDE
— Al Paton
It’s been a long, challenging and at times crazy season, but you made it — KFC SuperCoach grand final week is here.
If you’ve made it this far, give yourself a pat on the back. If you’ve got any trades left that’s an even more incredible achievement — and it gives you a huge advantage in the battle for premiership glory, and a summer of bragging rights over your mates.
SuperCoach teams were thrown into disarray by a series of outs in Round 22 which all seemed to hit our defensive premium stocks — Tom Stewart (34 per cent of teams), Jake Lloyd (37 per cent) — on top of Callum Mills (19 per cent) — all missed, and in a final dagger Steven May (10 per cent) was a late out for the Demons’ clash against Adelaide on Sunday.
Of that group, May and Lloyd are expected to return in Round 23, Mills is a maybe and Stewart probably won’t play again in 2021.
If you have a trade in your back pocket, some potential replacements are listed below — plus some possible one-hit wonders you could add to your squad for a Marlion Pickett-style grand final debut.
With no trades, you need to use vice-captain and emergency loopholes wherever possible and track what your opponent is doing. Shift your C and VC around to match them if you’re leading or get an edge if you’re not, leave moves to the last second and even employ some sneaky tricks to gain that all-important mental edge.
Choice of captain will also be vital. The order of Round 23 matches will play a big role in our decisions but here’s an early shout — Patrick Dangerfield averages 142.6 in his past five games against Melbourne with a lowest score against the Demons in that time of 128.
THE REPLACEMENTS
JORDAN RIDLEY $463,400
The Essendon defender has had a bit of a lukewarm year after a blazing hot start, but he represents fantastic value at $84k under his starting price despite averaging 99.6 for the season. He’s fresh off a 108 against Gold Coast and scored 122 the last time he faced Collingwood.
JACK CRISP $586,000
The form defender of the comp, Crisp has a five-round average of 119 and gathered another 30 disposals and 124 points in a big loss against the Lions. The No.1 target if money isn’t an issue.
CALEB DANIEL $514,100
Picking any Bulldogs player always comes with some risk given Luke Beveridge’s liking for throwing players into different positions but Daniel seems a safe bet. He attended a couple of centre bounces at the weekend but still took the bulk of the behind kick-ins and hit targets with his usual accuracy in windy Launceston. Had a stinker (55) against Essendon in Round 21 but still boasts a five-round average of 106.6.
BRAYDEN MAYNARD $527,800
Another Magpie to consider, Maynard emerged as a premo last year but struggled early in 2021. His back half of the season has been much better — scoring at least 93 in five of his past six games — and he has the ability to go big, scoring 130 against the Eagles and 142 against the Demons.
NICK VLASTUIN $487,600
If you want a grand final POD, there are two Tigers who are finishing the year with a bang. Vlastuin has missed a fair chunk of the season through injury but has scored at least 111 in four of his past five games and is fewer than 1000 teams. Liam Baker is even cheaper — $453,900 — and is coming off three straight tons.
ONE-WEEK WONDERS?
LANCE FRANKLIN $400,700 FWD
The KFC grand final specialist. Buddy is fresh after being managed against North Melbourne but needs a September tune-up — and 14 more goals to hit the 1000 mark for his career. Could they all come against Gold Coast this week? Based on the Suns’ form against Essendon you wouldn’t totally discount it, and we know Franklin has done it before. He averages a remarkable 111.6 in the final hoome-and-away round over 14 seasons and 147 in his past four SuperCoach grand final appearances, including a massive 183 against Carlton in 2017.
SEAN DARCY $648,800 RUC
We said about six weeks ago trading Max Gawn sideways to Darcy would be a high-risk but potentially high-reward move, and anyone who was brave enough to do it has been laughing ever since. Darcy is clearly the No.1 KFC SuperCoach ruckman of the past five rounds, averaging 127.2 points a game — 18 points more than Gawn and 32 more than Brodie Grundy. If you don’t have that amount of cash, No.2 on the list is Brisbane’s Oscar McInerney $567,500 (five-round av 121.3).
JAKE STRINGER $505,800 FWD
Stringer is on a mission to catapult Essendon into the finals and it’s hard to see Collingwood stopping him this weekend. If you are making a late Hail Mary play you want someone who can go big and we know Stringer can do that, scoring 147 against the Suns and 180 against the Hawks in recent weeks.
CHAD WINGARD $495,700 FWD
We’ve seen Wingard go on scoring runs in the past and he’s in the middle of another purple patch — averaging 116.8 over his past four games including two 130-plus scores. And another big return could be in store in Round 23 against Richmond, which has been leaking KFC SuperCoach points like a sieve in recent weeks.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2021: Grand Final week trade guide
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