AFL news 2022: Analysing the contenders for finals and players who will shape premiership race
Every team has injury issues. But has your club had a tougher than expected run this year? Check out the health ladder to see where everyone sits.
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AFL analyst David King has rated ladder leader Geelong as being in the most enviable list position heading into finals with “healthy star factor” still to inject into its line-up ahead of its September assault.
Describing list health as a team’s best player, King said the Cats appeared to have all their “ducks in a row” approaching the pointy end of the regular season.
Champion Data analysis of each club’s games lost this season to their best 22 found the Cats ranked equal fourth-worst in the league – only the Giants, West Coast and Essendon have lost more games to their best 22.
But importantly, the Cats have a strong list to pick from now. Just three prime Cats – Tom Stewart, Jed Bews and Brandan Parfitt – were unavailable last round. Sydney was the best-placed club with Peter Ladhams its sole best-team absentee.
Chris Scott’s men still have a fit weapon waiting on the sidelines to return after All-Australian defender Tom Stewart completes his four-game suspension, due back in Round 20.
King said consistency of personnel and group cohesion were two of the most crucial ingredients for any successful premiership campaign.
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The two-time premiership Kangaroo said the Cats were better placed than any side at the moment to take advantage of that list health leading into finals.
“Geelong, despite not having Tom Stewart, really have all their ducks in a row,” King said.
“The ruck change, (Rhys) Stanley is doing exactly what they are asking him to do, so (Jon) Ceglar is maybe breathing down his neck there as an off-season acquisition but we really haven’t seen him this year so would you have confidence making that change there?
“Stewart comes back in and there is a challenge to drop someone out of the team who is in pretty good form.
“I think the Cats are best placed. They are going to make it hard to select (Brandan) Parfitt who has missed quite a few weeks.
“Of those coming back in, Geelong has the luxury of a healthy star factor player coming in, no one else has that luxury.
“Geelong has got the luxury of a healthy player not in the team in Stewart, he is still training, he is still fit, he is not actually injured, he is suspended.
“So if you are looking for another reason to fall in love with Geelong, then there’s that.”
The list-health of premier Melbourne, fourth-placed Fremantle and the third-placed Brisbane Lions also appears strong.
The Demons and Dockers were ranked 15th for games lost to their best 22 (two), while the Lions were ranked 13th (three) last round.
While acknowledging Melbourne’s list was “reasonably healthy”, King felt there were a few more underlying struggles at the Demons.
“(Clayton) Oliver will be banged up with that hand for a period of time, but you would not think that it would impact finals,” the Fox Footy expert said.
“Max Gawn came back quickly from that ankle, that would still be lingering and his form hasn’t been the last few weeks what it was the first few weeks. His big games have been big, but he has in the main been so-so.
“So there are guys that are carrying injuries at Melbourne that are getting by.”
But King questioned whether the Demons would need to take a risk with injured forward Tom McDonald if he was able to get himself fit for the finals.
“Are you confident that after three months of absence that you can bring him in and it will work in a four week span?,” King said
“That’s a significant risk and you are dropping a healthy player to bring in the risk.”
Of the other players waiting in the wings to return ahead of the finals for the contenders, King was a fan was what ruckman Brodie Grundy would bring for the Magpies, but doubted the team could play the three talls – Grundy, Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox – together.
“You get an upgrade (with Grundy), wherever you put him, you get an upgrade,” King said.
“He could be a serious deep option inside 50m, he has shown that in the past, and then if he is a 30 per cent ruckman, then you are going to get a better 30 per cent than you are (with) Mason Cox.
“The way they play, it’s a selection choice. You just couldn’t do it (with three), you would be too tall and they like to play fast into that forward line.
“It’s a form decision. It’s a great luxury for Craig McRae.”
Richmond was ranked third on the list for games lost to best 22 with six out last round.
The Tigers expect superstar Dustin Martin and forward Tom Lynch to return for Round 20 and King said there was no player more important to the Tigers’ finals push than the Triple Norm Smith medallist.
“You never underestimate the champ. There is no party without punch, they would not have been the team they have been over the last five or six years without Dusty playing top-line football at the pointy end,” King said.
“He has been the difference maker in all those big games. The importance of Dusty, not just playing, but playing to a level that shapes games, is significant.
“I think the importance of Dusty to this group, Dusty in eight out of 10, nine out of 10 form is more important than any other player to their group. So he needs to be healthy, well.”
King said the most successful team at the end of the year ultimately had the least changes.
“If you can play consistent football with the same guys next to you week in, week out, which is always the case with the premier, the premier always plays the fewest or the second fewest players for the season,” King said.
“They build cohesion, they build a template, they can adjust on the run.
“Clearly those guys if they are young guys they have gathered a consistent season of experience and if they are elder players, then they know exactly what they are doing and they are pliable for the coach to utilise.”
PLAYERS WHO COULD SHAPE THE FINALS FOR TOP-EIGHT CONTENDERS
1. GEELONG
Tom Stewart (suspension)
Labelled the game’s best defender by Geelong coach Chris Scott earlier this year, Stewart is set to return to boost the ladder-leading Cats’ finals charge in Round 20 against the Western Bulldogs after serving his four-match suspension.
Stewart was rubbed out by the AFL Tribunal after his high bump on Richmond’s Dion Prestia in Round 15.
Despite the three-time All-Australian defender’s importance to the Geelong line-up, the Cats have remained unbeaten in his absence
Brandan Parfitt (broken hand) is closing in on a return after two months on the sidelines, while the Cats are also weighing up how to get games into talls Esava Ratugolea and Jonathon Ceglar before finals.
The Cats played the long game with Patrick Dangerfield ahead of his return and now, with three games under his belt, should have the Brownlow medallist primed for a finals assault.
2. MELBOURNE
Tom McDonald (foot)
McDonald’s bid to be fit to play a part in the Demons’ finals campaign is ramping up with the big forward set to take a step forward in his recovery this week.
The premiership forward is this week set to transfer from training on the Alter-G anti-gravity treadmill to some light on-ground running.
Sidelined since Round 10 after undergoing surgery to repair a Lisfranc foot injury, McDonald is still listed as six-eight weeks away from a return.
The earliest scenario would have McDonald available for the start of the finals series, should his recovery progress as expected, but eight weeks would have him fighting to return.
Having kicked 15 goals in the first half of the season before his injury, a McDonald return would provide a major boost for the Demons forward stocks in its quest for back-to-back flags.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Daniel Rich (hamstring)
Dayne Zorko (hamstring)
After having Covid sweep through the club, the Lions have now emerged as healthy as any team heading into finals.
Captain Dayne Zorko and veteran Daniel Rich head the list of inclusions for this week’s QClash against the Gold Coast.
Zorko and Rich have both been sidelined since Round 16 and, as the club’s two most experienced players, will be critical in the Lions’ quest to secure a top-four berth.
4. FREMANTLE
Sam Switkowski (back)
One of only two players at the Dockers rated as elite by Champion Data at the start of the season, a date for Switkowski’s return is still yet to be confirmed by the Dockers.
Switkowski has not played since Round 13, but the club hopes to provide a timeline for the small forward’s return next week.
Switkowski kicked 11 goals in the first half of the season before his injury and, with an elite tackle rating, the Dockers would also welcome the return of his forward pressure.
Dockers superstar Nat Fyfe could be primed to make an impact in the finals for the Dockers with five games now under his belt since his return from shoulder and back issues.
5. COLLINGWOOD
Brodie Grundy (knee)
Jordan De Goey (quad)
Ruckman Brodie Grundy and midfielder Jordan De Goey shape as two key inclusions for the Magpies as the team looks to strengthen its position in the top-eight in the run towards finals.
After 13 weeks sidelined with a PCL injury, Grundy is closing in on a return after the Magpies confirmed this week he had been cleared to make a comeback.
The Magpies expect De Goey, who has missed the past two games with a quad injury, to be available for the Round 20 clash against Port Adelaide.
After clocking a 10km session last weekend as he builds up his training volume, De Goey will look to complete a match simulation session on Sunday to prepare himself for a return.
Grundy has been in full training and full contact drills for the past two weeks, but his return could have the biggest influence on the look of the Magpies’ line-up leading into finals.
Back-up ruckman Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox have performed strongly for the Magpies in Grundy’s absence, raising questions over how the three talls fit together and whether one needs to make way.
6. SYDNEY
Josh Kennedy (hamstring)
Sydney coach John Longmire has backed Josh Kennedy to still play a key role in the Swans’ finals’ assault, but says the veteran understands the “evolution of the team”.
The midfield warrior is pushing for a senior return after making his comeback from a serious hamstring injury in the VFL last weekend.
Kennedy has not played since he badly injured his hamstring in Round 10 against Carlton.
Used as a medical substitute at times this year, the 34-year-old three-time best-and-fairest winner and 2012 premiership player potentially faces a changing role upon his return but there is little doubting the experience he affords the young Swans.
Longmire said Kennedy still had “plenty to contribute the rest of this year”.
“He’s all about (the) team … but he understands the evolution of (the) team and where his role suits in that process,” Longmire said this week.
“I’m sure he’ll contribute in the back-half of the year for us.”
7. CARLTON
Marc Pittonet (knee)
Pittonet is set for a return to bolster the Blues ruck division after missing a large chunk of the season with a knee injury.
The 202cm big man made his return with 15 disposals and 22 hit-outs through the VFL last weekend and is poised for a comeback to support Tom De Koning in the ruck.
Pittonet has been sidelined since Round 6 when he injured his PCL against the Dockers.
The Blues have had to rely on Jack Silvagni to provide some ruck relief alongside De Koning in Pittonet’s absence. Zac Williams is running out of time to make a meaningful contribution.
8. RICHMOND
Tom Lynch (hamstring)
Dustin Martin (hamstring)
You would struggle to find a bigger pair of inclusions across the league.
And the Tigers will be hoping the return of triple Norm Smith medallist Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch will provide the spark they need to help secure their spot in the finals.
The eighth-placed Tigers expect both Martin and Lynch to be available for the team’s Round 20 clash against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG.
Martin has been sidelined since Round 16, and Lynch Round 17, with hamstring injuries.
Richmond coach Damien Hardwick said the Tigers had hoped Martin would be fit to return this week against Fremantle but his progress had been slower than expected.
“He is pretty much on target. We were hoping he would be available for this week but it has been a little bit slower than we would have liked,” Hardwick said.
“But we are reasonably confident that he will be available for next week’s game v Brisbane.
“Tom will be very similar. They are both on the same path at the moment, so we presume those two would be available next week, we are hoping.”
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Caleb Daniel (knee)
The star defender has not played since Round 13 after undergoing an arthroscopy to repair cartilage damage in his knee.
The Bulldogs expect Daniel to be available for a return in the next one to two weeks as they fight to push their way into the final eight.
One of the Bulldogs’ most consistent performers, Daniel ranks among the elite in the league for disposals, handballs and above average for kicks and metres gained.
10. ST KILDA
Dougal Howard (knee)
St Kilda’s defensive general has been sidelined since Round 15 after undergoing knee tendon surgery, but remains on track to return in time to help the Saints’ finals push.
The Saints expect the key defender, who is ranked among the elite in the league for spoils, to return in one-two weeks.
St Kilda faces Hawthorn in Round 20, but it’s the big match-up against Geelong and its key forward duo Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron in Round 21, which the Saints would want a Howard return primed for.
The Saints were dealt a ruck blow with a calf injury ruling out veteran Paddy Ryder for four to six weeks. The 34-year-old is unlikely to return, at least not before the end of the regular season, so won’t be able to play a role in shaping the team’s finals fortunes.
11. PORT ADELAIDE
Scott Lycett (shoulder)
Sidelined since Round 4 after undergoing surgery for a dislocated shoulder, an exact timeline on Scott Lycett’s return still remains unclear.
Lycett underwent another procedure last week to washout his shoulder after showing signs of a potential infection last week. The club said the procedure did not reveal any infection, but he would remain on a course of antibiotics with a time frame for his return to become clearer over the next week.
As the team fights to stay in the finals’ frame, Lycett’s return would be a massive boost for the Power, which has had to rely on the makeshift ruck combination of Charlie Dixon and Jeremy Finlayson.
Originally published as AFL news 2022: Analysing the contenders for finals and players who will shape premiership race
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