Run Home: See where your club will finish the 2022 season on our predicted ladder

The door is ajar for an unlikely – but mathematically possible – Bombers finals appearance. Here’s how the final five rounds have to play out for Essendon to make it.

Al Paton

@al_superfooty

7 min read

July 19, 2022 - 3:52PM

News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom

How high can the Swans finish. Picture: Getty Images

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Dare to dream, Bombers fans.

After a disastrous start to the season there was talk of rebuilds and even replacing the coach. But suddenly Essendon is on a roll.

They have won three of their past five, taking the scalps of Brisbane, Gold Coast and St Kilda. Meanwhile, the teams above them are stumbling with seemingly no one wanting to secure eighth spot. Mathematically, Essendon can overtake them all and play finals. But is it probable?

The first part of the equation is for the Bombers to run the table for the rest of the season, and looking at the fixture that’s not a far-fetched idea, with their toughest opponents at the start and finish of the run home. If luck finally goes against Collingwood on Sunday after a string of close wins, the Bombers then face North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium), GWS Giants (Giants Stadium) and Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium), before a final-round showdown against Richmond that could decide eighth spot.

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Can Jake Stringer lead Essendon back into the finals? Picture: Michael Klein

With the Dons only able to get to 11 wins and with a poor percentage (86.1), the key is for none of their rivals to reach 11 victories for the season. Given the recent form of Richmond, St Kilda and Co and their difficult fixtures that might not require anything too outlandish. The trick is everything has to go Essendon’s way – and it needs to fulfil its end of the bargain.

Here’s how the key results would have to fall over the next five rounds for the Bombers to make it:

ROUND 19

Essendon d Collingwood

Fremantle d Richmond

Geelong d Port Adelaide

Brisbane Lions d Gold Coast

Melbourne d Western Bulldogs

West Coast d St Kilda

ROUND 20

Essendon d North Melbourne

Collingwood d Port Adelaide

Geelong d Western Bulldogs

Brisbane Lions d Richmond

ROUND 21

Essendon d GWS Giants

Hawthorn d Gold Coast

Fremantle d Western Bulldogs

Geelong d St Kilda

Port Adelaide d Richmond

ROUND 22

Essendon d Port Adelaide

Geelong d Gold Coast

ROUND 23

Essendon d Richmond

Hawthorn d Western Bulldogs

Sydney d St Kilda

If that all happens, the final ladder will look like this:

FINAL LADDER

1. Geelong 18-4

2. Melbourne 17-5

3. Brisbane Lions 17-5

4. Sydney 16-6

5. Fremantle 16-6

6. Carlton 14-8

7. Collingwood 13-9

8. Essendon 11-11

9. Richmond 10-12

10. Western Bulldogs 10-12

11. Port Adelaide 10-12

12. Gold Coast 10-12

13. St Kilda 10-12

14. Hawthorn 9-13

15. Adelaide 6-16

16. GWS Giants 5-17

17. West Coast 4-18

18. North Melbourne 2-20

... and the first week of finals will look like this:

QF: Geelong v Sydney

QF: Melbourne v Brisbane Lions

EF: Fremantle v Essendon

EF: Carlton v Collingwood

Go Bombers.

LADDER PREDICTOR: POWERHOUSE CLUB SET TO MISS FINALS

– Will Hogan

With some shock results in round 18 the run home has been turned on its head.

There’s now just five games remaining and the domino effect for top four and eight calculations is real.

We’ve taken a look at every finals contender’s run home to try and determine who might finish where and what the first round of finals could look like.

1. GEELONG (13-4, 137%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3.50, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.02

R19: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R20: Western Bulldogs (GMHBA) W

R21: St Kilda (GMHBA) W

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Predicted finish: 1st

The Cats further strengthened their premiership credentials with an emphatic win over Carlton on Saturday night. Tom Stewart has one more game on the sidelines but they’ve covered his absence well with Zach Guthrie and Zach Tuohy important against the Blues. Sam Menegola will miss a week with concussion but aside from that there’s no other injury issues down at the Cattery as they begin their run of five games in a row against current bottom eight sides.

The Lions are closing in on a top two finish. Picture: Getty Images

2. MELBOURNE (13-4, 132.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3.25, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.10

R19: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R20: Fremantle (Optus) L

R21: Collingwood (MCG) W

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) L

Predicted finish: 3rd

The Dees bounced back against finals aspirants Port Adelaide in Alice Springs and it has helped their hopes of locking in a top two spot. The Demons’ final five games aren’t easy but if they can manage three wins while continuing to nurse key players Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Luke Jackson back to full fitness then it’ll put the reigning premiers in good stead.

3. BRISBANE (12-5, 126%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $11, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.80

R19: Gold Coast (Gabba) W

R20: Richmond (MCG) W

R21: Carlton (Gabba) W

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) W

Predicted finish: 2nd

The Lions were back to their damaging best accounting for the Giants on Saturday and it was duly needed. There are some critical games for Chris Fagan’s men during their run home and this weekend’s Q clash is a non-negotiable if they are to lock in a home final. It is a tough run home for the Lions who are still hoping to get their best available side on the park after being ravaged by Covid.

4. FREMANTLE (12-5, 120.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $11, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.70

R19: Richmond (Marvel) W

R20: Melbourne (Optus) W

R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) L

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka) W

Predicted finish: 5th

The Dockers’ shock loss to the Swans could have a flow on effect on their top four hopes. After a brilliant month Saturday night’s performance against a side also vying for the double chance does hurt. It now makes the next three weeks crucial with five consecutive wins needed to ensure they finish above Sydney. If not, they could be heading for a home elimination final instead

Collingwood celebrated another tight win on the weekend. Picture: Getty Images

5. COLLINGWOOD (12-5, 106.3%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $18, Top 8: $1.15, Top 4: $4

R19: Essendon (MCG) L

R20: Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R21: Melbourne (MCG) L

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) L

Predicted finish: 7th

Collingwood has become the master at close games and every win is critical as they surge towards a finals appearance. But it is a very tough run home and this week’s blockbuster against Essendon is no longer a certainty it once might have looked only a few weeks ago. The Pies will get back Jordan De Goey and Brodie Grundy soon while Taylor Adams should be back this week. All things considering, the Pies are well placed to play finals under new coach Craig McRae.

6. SYDNEY (11-6, 120.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $9, Top 8: $1.05, Top 4: $1.45

R19: Adelaide (SCG) W

R20: GWS (SCG) W

R21: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 4th

Sydney’s shock win over the Dockers has thrown the door wide open for the Swans to swoop in on a top four spot. Their injury list is relatively healthy with just Peter Ladhams on the sidelines while youngsters Errol Gulden and Chad Warner continue to shine. Seven wins in a row heading into September would have the Swans as genuine contenders.

7. CARLTON (11-6, 113.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $13, Top 8: $1.10, Top 4: $5.50

R19: GWS (Marvel) W

R20: Adelaide (AO) W

R21: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 6th

The Blues failed in their big test after a crushing defeat to Geelong on Saturday night but they will get their chance to make amends with games against Brisbane and Melbourne coming up in a tricky finish towards finals. Michael Voss will analyse how they fell apart against the Cats and will hope the tables can turn for their next challenge.

Michael Voss is set to take the Blues back to finals. Picture: Getty Images

8. RICHMOND (9-8, 115%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $21, Top 8: $1.80, Top 4: $13

R19: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R20: Brisbane (MCG) L

R21: Port Adelaide (AO) L

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 9th

The Tigers have gone from potential top four hopefuls to locked into a genuine battle for the top eight. The loss to North Melbourne has given some teams below a chance at swooping in and the Tigers’ supposed ‘soft’ draw home now becomes tricky. Fremantle, Brisbane, Port Adelaide at home and now an in form Essendon will make the race for the eight interesting. A loss to the Power or the Bombers could make things very interesting.

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 112%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $67, Top 8: $2.70, Top 4: $51

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 8th

The rollercoaster season down at Whitten Oval continues and the Dogs can’t be written off just yet. Marcus Bontempelli reminded everyone of his stature in the competition and the return of Bailey Smith was welcomed. If the Dogs can get on a roll and the Tigers slip up then the eighth spot could be theirs.

10. ST KILDA (9-8, 101.7%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $2.70, Top 4: $51

R19: West Coast (Optus) W

R20: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R21: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) L

Predicted finish: 11th

The Saints were very disappointing on Friday night and it has hurt their finals chances. Wins over the next two weeks are musts and then it gets extremely difficult with the Saints set to be without Paddy Ryder after he was injured against the Dogs. A top eight spot now unlikely for Brett Ratten and his players.

The Tigers are in danger of slipping out of the eight. Picture: Getty Images

11. PORT ADELAIDE (8-9, 106.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $81, Top 8: $4.50, Top 4: $101

R19: Geelong (AO) L

R20: Collingwood (MCG) L

R21: Richmond (AO) W

R22: Essendon (Marvel) L

R23: Adelaide (AO) W

Predicted finish: 12th

The Power stumbled at their first hurdle in their tricky run home but are still clinging to the chances of a finals appearance. We have them slipping to 12th but they could still manage wins over Collingwood, Richmond and Essendon which could see them finish eighth. Ken Hinkley will still be saying never say never.

12. GOLD COAST (8-9, 104.7%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $7, Top 4: $101

R19: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R20: West Coast (Metricon) W

R21: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

R22: Geelong (Metricon) L

R23: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 10th

The Suns just had to win on Sunday and now face an uphill battle for their inaugural finals appearance. They should still manage three wins in their final five games but it won’t be enough.

FINAL PREDICTED LADDER

1. Geelong (18-4)

2. Brisbane (17-5)

3. Melbourne (16-6)

4. Sydney (16-6)

5. Fremantle (16-6)

6. Carlton (14-8)

7. Collingwood (13-9)

8. Western Bulldogs (12-10)

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9. Richmond (11-11)

10. Gold Coast (11-11)