AFL trade period: The players in limbo and where every potential deal is at ahead of deadline day
Can Collingwood salvage its trade period? Will the Bulldogs budge on Josh Dunkley’s asking price? With the deadline looming, here is the latest on all the big deals.
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What becomes of the broken-hearted?
Adam Treloar has certainly had his heart broken by Collingwood over the past month, beaten down by a day-by-day drip-feed of rumours, innuendo and negative feedback.
And with only hours remaining in the trade period a potential return to the club he chose over Richmond all those years ago would fill him with dread.
As a trade period big on speculation and small on actual consequential deals comes to a close, some clubs are sitting back smoking a big Cuban cigar.
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The Lions landed their free agent Joe Daniher with a minimum of fuss and brought in a low-risk, high-reward half forward in Nakia Cockatoo who still could be anything.
Carlton finally nailed the Adam Saad deal to go with free agency acquisition Zac Williams then were left reeling with fresh doubts that their once-in-a-generation forward in Charlie Curnow will ever grace the field again.
Yet it is Collingwood’s officials which would have that sick feeling in the pit of their stomachs, without the cap relief they needed yet and wondering what damage has been done to the morale of their fans and their club.
The Pies can still save some face if the Dogs take Adam Treloar off their hands in the final hours of the trade period.
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But even then it takes a leap of faith for Luke Beveridge to ignore his dodgy hamstrings, to ignore all the badmouthing that has gone on about Treloar’s poor kicking and high-maintenance within Collingwood’s walls.
Here is one way some in the industry believe everyone can go home happy.
Essendon, with picks six, seven and eight, trades one to Collingwood for its No. 16 selection and its future first-round pick.
The Pies get pick eight to use on a kid, Essendon has two future first-rounders to satisfy the Dogs on Dunkley and the Dogs have an arsenal of pick 14 plus three first-rounders if they want to get a deal done on Treloar.
And Essendon gets to use pick 16 on GWS midfielder Jye Caldwell while getting pick 29 back for Orazio Fantasia and keeping picks six and seven.
Essendon will surely be assessing the Jeremy Cameron trade scenario wondering if they could swoop in if that goes as pear-shaped as it might.
They are aware Cameron only wants to get to one club – Geelong – but GWS couldn’t have made the Cats work harder on brokering a deal.
GWS says the only acceptable offer is three first-round picks — 13, 15 and 20 — aware they will drift out by at least three selections on draft night and just as knowledgeable about the draft booty the Cats secured for Tim Kelly.
They say why wouldn’t we keep him given he’s our best player?
Geelong says why did you lowball him on a $750,000 per season offer, with Cameron already having sacrificed more than any other player in COVID due to a back-ended deal the Giants thrust upon him?
Geelong might have to end up handing over all those three picks, and yet it will leave them with only four first-round picks on their list the club actually drafted.
One of them is Joel Selwood, with No. 10 pick Cockatoo and No. 22 selection Lachie Fogarty having departed for the Lions and Carlton respectively at a club that is going all in for that “Dangerflag”.
Geelong might yet win the flag next year with Jeremy Cameron, but its entire ethos this decade has been to challenge without giving away its long-term sustainability.
On Thursday they might just have to choose between their immediate future and their medium-term goals.
David Teague must have gone to bed at night these past weeks dreaming of Adam Saad streaming through the middle of the MCG and hitting Charlie Curnow laces-out 40m from goal.
There is no other way of putting it — Curnow’s latest injury is a career-threatening blow that will diminish his power even if he does find a way to come back from it.
But in some ways the acquisition of Saad and Williams to add pace off half back and in the midfield is even more important now given Curnow’s injury.
Carlton has forwards who will need quick ball movement and elite delivery including Mitch McGovern and Tom de Koning, even if Harry McKay and Levi Casboult have proven they are capable however the Sherrin enters forward 50.
Blues fans will quickly fall in love with Saad, just as they did with Jack Martin.
Consider his match-ups this year: Eddie Betts goalless, Tom Papley goalless (although the Swan kicked three on other opponents), Dan Butler goalless, Liam Ryan one goal, Luke Dahlhaus goalless, Lincoln McCarthy goalless, Ben Ainsworth one goal, Jason Castagna one goal.
Lachie Fogarty was good enough to play 15 games for Geelong in his first year, so giving up very little to give him a second chance after two injury-plagued years makes sense, even if the Darcy Lang experiment failed dismally.
So as premiers Richmond sits back doing almost nothing, the chasing pack will spend the final hours of this insane season trying once more to build a list to reel in the club that has established a dynasty.
JON RALPH’S FIVE DEALS TO WATCH ON DEADLINE DAY
Jeremy Cameron (Greater Western Sydney)
Geelong might have to relent on its desire to retain one of its three first-round picks (13, 15 and 20) if it wants to get this deal done without having to drag Cameron into the pre-season or national draft.
GWS wants all three and has an earlier pick in the pre-season draft, even if the Cats did push him there with a price on his head.
And if the Cats gave up 13 and 15 to a rival to get a top-10 pick, leapfrogging the GWS No. 10 pick in the national draft, there is no guarantee another club wouldn’t pick the 2019 Coleman Medallist ahead of them.
Josh Dunkley (Western Bulldogs)
The Dogs have the whip hand because they don’t really want to lose a contracted midfield star, adamant their asking price for Dunkley is two first-round picks. He’s not actually worth that but if the Dons want to get him they might have to pony up a deal of that scope.
They can trade one of their No. 6-8 picks for a late first-rounder and a future first-rounder and then offer two first-rounders to the Dogs but who knows if they will eventually accept that deal.
Adam Treloar (Collingwood)
He has had his medical with the Dogs and would shape as an arguable upgrade on Dunkley, and the Dogs can’t get both given they have promised Dunkley more midfield time which Treloar would automatically take away.
They Dogs will spot an opportunity to turn this trade period into a win – already with the No. 1 overall pick in Jamar Ugle-Hagan coming up plus Stef Martin and Mitch Hannan – by getting more for Dunkley than they give up for Treloar.
Jaidyn Stephenson (Collingwood)
Hasn’t ruled out a move to the Roos, who have picks including 2, 11 and 28. Rivals would have given the world for this exciting half forward after his Rising Star win but given he’s owed more than $1.5 million over the next three years and had a massive form slump this year he’s gettable.
No word yet on what it would take to secure him, but at least he isn’t saying no just yet.
Jack Higgins (Richmond)
When you won three of the last four flags with a list still in the sweet spot you can afford to do very little, with Richmond upset cult hero Jack Higgins is set to get to St Kilda.
St Kilda offered a future second-round pick – which wasn’t enough – but could St Kilda give up pick 64 for Richmond’s 79 or another pick swap to sweeten the deal sufficiently?
Alex Witherden (Brisbane Lions)
Gets to West Coast where he will add an instant hit of rebound run-and-carry to the Eagles’ back line. Strange he didn’t get more love at Brisbane Lions. LOCK IT IN
Lochie O’Brien and Paddy Dow (Carl)
They are the two interesting ones who have been discussed but no serious offers have emerged for the youngsters. They face big years along with another early pick Liam Stocker in 2021. O’Brien was linked with Collingwood on Wednesday. UP FOR GRABS
Tom Phillips (Coll)
Wingman has been leapfrogged by Josh Daicos and is also on decent coin. Hawthorn has only mild interest and is saying no at this point. Could Essendon emerge late to run the lines on the outside? UP FOR GRABS
Mason Cox (Coll)
Key forward was linked to Sydney Swans but may have to stay. If so, Collingwood probably ask him to take a pay cut to align more closely to his output. UP FOR GRABS
Jordan De Goey (Coll)
Collingwood close to re-signing him for two more years, but is trying to clear some more cap space first. What condition will he come back in is the big question. LOCK IT IN
Martin Gleeson (Ess)
Gleeson is free to a good home if any club wants him but there are no takers. Bulldogs aren’t keen. UP FOR GRABS
Orazio Fantasia (Ess)
Fantasia has said he will have no problems returning to Tullamarine but a deal should get done. Port Adelaide’s second-round pick (No. 29) plus a swap of some future picks should improve the deal enough for Essendon. LOCK IT IN
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Charlie Constable (Gee)
On-baller can’t get a look-in at Geelong. Could potentially work at Carlton, or Fremantle. No takers at this stage but wants more senior opportunities which won’t come at Geelong in 2021. DON'T COUNT ON IT
Brandan Parfitt (Gee)
How many times does he have to say no to GWS? Not going there. LOCK IT IN
Esava Ratugolea (Gee)
Wants to stay at the Cattery, where he could take over from Rhys Stanley in the ruck next year. Had a modest season but has enormous upside. Continued links to GWS have frustrated his camp. LOCK IT IN
Jack Steven (Gee)
Could walk away from his AFL career. Has taken some time to weigh up whether he wants to take a payout or commit to the professionalism required at the top level. DON’T COUNT ON IT
Jye Caldwell (GWS)
The Giants are shattered to lose Caldwell who wants to start a new chapter at Essendon. Clean inside and out and can have an impact forward. Lenny Hayes was a big fan. Bombers could secure pick No. 20 from Geelong and trade it on to Giants for him. LOCK IT IN
Jackson Hately (GWS)
On-baller will get to Adelaide for potentially pick No. 40 otherwise the Crows can get him for nothing in the pre-season draft. Reckon he will flourish with more senior opportunities. Great get for Crows. LOCK IT IN
Jack Gunston (Haw)
The Hawks are adamant they aren’t trading Gunston, despite chatter, so it would take a stunning trade offer to change their minds. Everything is up for grabs in trade period and the Pies are definitely keen, but Gunston and the Hawks seem certain he’s staying. DON'T COUNT ON IT
Ben Brown (North Melbourne)
Will get to Melbourne on a four-year deal. A pick swap between the Demons and Crows on Tuesday delivered pick 33 to the Dees. which could be enough to make it happen. LOCK IT IN
Jack Lonie (St Kilda)
Has been offered a one-year deal at St Kilda but he is trying to secure a two-season deal elsewhere. No word yet on whether he has been able to do that, with Hawthorn one club needing more small forwards.
UP FOR GRABS
Nick Hind (St Kilda)
Essendon has expressed interest in the small half-forward with dancing feet, having watched him when he played in their own VFL team. Out of contract and out of the team in the finals at St Kilda so the Dons would feel they could secure him for a late pick. UP FOR GRABS
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