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Trump v Harris: Massive war chests to win the White House

The Democratic Party didn’t skip a beat in shifting its loyalty -- and a $A146.5m war chest -- from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. See how it compares to the Republican Party’s campaign.

Donald Trump is set to face Kamala Harris. Picture: Supplied
Donald Trump is set to face Kamala Harris. Picture: Supplied

The ink had barely dried. Within hours of Joe Biden signing the death warrant of his 2024 presidential campaign, the carefully coiffed battle plan of Kamala Harris began rolling over the corpse of her predecessor’s legacy.

Control of @BidenHQ social media handles almost immediately went to @KamalaHQ. Gone were the Dark Brandon laser eyes and in was the slightly off-putting Chartreuse green of the Gen Z “Brat” meme.

The first order of business, prioritising a digital campaign targeting some of Ms Harris’ most consequential voting blocks, presaged how the Democratic Party sees its path to defeating Donald Trump in November.

The new @KamalaHQ didn’t go with millennial pink or Gen X goth, and presidential blue was relegated to the newly converted Harris storefront in Delaware. That elderly guy was old, stodgy and out of touch. Slime green says hello fellow kids, this new girl is a hip, wine aunt vibe shift.

Last week, the British pop star Charli XCX posted on X that Vice President Kamala Harris “IS brat.”
Last week, the British pop star Charli XCX posted on X that Vice President Kamala Harris “IS brat.”

But like the Chartreuse liquor that the campaign hue is branding on, Ms Harris is seen by a large swath of American voters as uniquely pungent.

The #bratgirlsummer will attempt to fix that.

“The Vice President is in a strong position to take on Donald Trump and win in 104 days,” said Jen O’Malley Dillion, the key architect of Ms Harris’ campaign strategy.

Ms Harris was the weakest against Mr Trump in polling of would-be challengers like Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, governors like Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania) or JB Pritzker (Illinois), or Senators Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota), Cory Booker (New Jersey) and Raphael Warnock (Georgia).

US Vice President and Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Picture: AFP
US Vice President and Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Picture: AFP

In the money match-up, Ms Harris’ personal fortune of an estimated $US8 million ($A12.2m) puts her at a Goliath disadvantage to Mr Trump’s $US5.7 billion ($A8.7m).

She’s even well behind third party candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr, who has estimated net worth of $US15 million ($A23m).

But like O’Malley Dillion, the rest of the Democratic Party didn’t skip a beat in shifting its loyalty – and $US96 million ($A146.5m) war chest – to Ms Harris.

Barack and Michelle Obama Endorse Kamala Harris

The former Biden campaign manager turned Harris campaign manager outlined the path to victory in a memo to supporters that boasted of the seamless transition of the president’s candidacy to that of the vice president.

“From day one, the Biden-Harris campaign has not only been prepared to win a close election, it has been designed to win a close election. Vice President Harris will now inherit that robust campaign operation,” Ms O’Malley Dillion said.

US Republican Presidential nominee former President Donald Trump. Picture: Getty Images/AFP
US Republican Presidential nominee former President Donald Trump. Picture: Getty Images/AFP

The key word there is “inherit”. That’s not a contest. It’s a coronation.

The backroom machinations began well before Ms Harris secured the public endorsements of party elders like Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi.

Before delegates unofficially pledged their majority support, effectively making Ms Harris the presumptive nominee. Even before Mr Biden put pen to paper.

To outsiders, it looked like a slow-moving palace coup. It’s why high-profile holdout Barack Obama was thought to have first backed a “process from which an outstanding nominee emerges”.

US President Joe Biden, with Vice President Kamala Harris. Picture: AFP
US President Joe Biden, with Vice President Kamala Harris. Picture: AFP

Mr Obama’s lack of immediate endorsement was seen as a shrewd political manoeuvre to avoid the appearance that Ms Harris was the party’s anointed chosen one; an awkwardly undemocratic proposition for a party running on saving democracy.

While others could yet step forward, the key contenders have already thrown their support behind Ms Harris and time is fast running out to mount a serious challenge.

The States have different deadlines for candidates to be formally placed on the ballot, with the earliest in Ohio falling on August 8.

The DNC Rules Committee voted on Thursday to a compressed timeline for its process to nominate a presidential candidate. In Australian time:

July 28: Candidates must declare their candidacy by filing with the Convention’s Secretary by 8am AEST.

July 31: Candidates must meet the qualification requirements; at least 300 signatures from delegates with a maximum of 50 of those people representing any one state.

August 2: The earliest the “virtual roll call” will be held if only one candidate declares.

August 4: If more than one declares, voting is expected to begin.

August 8: The Ohio deadline. The presidential and vice presidential nominees will be chosen before this date to ensure ballot access in the state.

August 20 to 23: A “ceremonial” state-by-state roll call will be held at the Democratic National Convention to recognise the presidential and vice presidential nominees.

US President Joe Biden speaks during an address to the nation about his decision to not seek reelection. Picture: AFP
US President Joe Biden speaks during an address to the nation about his decision to not seek reelection. Picture: AFP

The virtual roll call is designed to lock up the nomination and avoid the first “open convention” – where candidates compete for delegates in rounds of voting – in more than half a century.

The last open convention was held 56 years ago when Democrats convened in Chicago after historically unpopular president Lyndon B Johnson dropped out. Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the nomination but went on to lose to Richard Nixon.

Ms Harris has to formally secure more than 1976 delegates to become the party’s nominee. If she doesn’t, it blows the convention wide open. Having already unofficially secured more than 3100 of the party’s 4000 total, the focus shifts to the Veepstakes.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Picture: Getty Images via AFP
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Picture: Getty Images via AFP

The current favourite for the VP spot is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who would bolster the ticket in a key swing state and, as a Jewish man, combat charges of anti-Semitism in the party.

Renowned pollster Frank Luntz said Arizona senator, and former astronaut, Mark Kelly, has the edge.

“His centrist approach and anti-gun work is seen as both complementary and additive to Kamala Harris’ ticket,” Mr Luntz said. “Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, but Arizona is still significant and a key swing state. Kelly’s selection would take Arizona off the GOP target map.”

Others include Governors Roy Cooper (North Carolina), Andy Beshear (Kentucky), and Tim Wals (Minnesota). Ms Whitmer, Mr Buttigieg and Mr Pritzker are also possibilities, should they not declare candidacy.

There are about 90 million reasons why no one is likely to challenge Ms Harris, but it boils down to what Ms O’Malley Dillion said was her biggest campaign strength: That inheritance.

In addition to the $US96 million ($A146.5m) war chest, Ms Harris inherits a 1300-strong campaign team that no rival could match.

The Trump campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission claiming Ms Harris was perpetrating a “heist of Joe Biden’s leftover campaign cash — a brazen money grab that would constitute the single largest excessive contribution and biggest violation in the history of the Federal Election Campaign Act”.

Trevor Potter, a former Federal Election Commission chairman and current lawyer for the Harris Campaign Legal Center, says the $US96m will only need to be refunded if Ms Harris is not on the ticket.

“Because Biden and Harris share a campaign committee, the Vice President and her running mate can continue using the campaign’s existing funds for the general election,” he said.

At least one of the five FEC commissioners agrees. Dara Lindenbaum said Ms Harris automatically gets access to the Biden campaign funds if she secures the presidential nomination.

The Biden campaign’s war chest along with the $US126 million ($A192.2m) donated since the president’s withdrawal, gives Ms Harris about $US220 million ($A335.5m) with 100 days left in the race.

Money matters.

Republicans had $281 million ($A428.7) cash on hand at the end of June. RFK Jr, by comparison, had a relatively bleak $US5.5 million ($A8.4).

In the four days after Mr Biden dropped out, the Trump machine outspent the Harris team $US68 million ($A103.7m) compared to $US2.6 million ($A4m) in television and radio advertising, or a ratio of 25 to 1.

Film crews captured footage at Ms Harris’ first rally as presumptive nominee in Milwaukee to create her first campaign ad, which began airing on Friday.

The 79-second clip featuring a Beyonce song, Mr Trump’s mugshot, and the slogan “We choose freedom”, targeted voting blocks that Ms O’Malley Dillion outlined in her path to victory memo as being key: Black, Latino, Asian, young and women voters.

Almost all of those demographics (other than women) had been moving in increasing numbers away from the Democratic Party and towards Mr Trump before Mr Biden drooped out.

Ms Harris almost immediately improved that outlook, opening more paths to victory than just through the “Rust Belt” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Mr Biden was banking on.

Ms Harris’ battle plan is designed to bring the “Sun Belt” states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina into play by the time she faces Mr Trump on the debate stage, previously scheduled for September 10 but now likely to change, and well before the election on November 5.

The first salvo of that strategy began when Charli XCX this week tweeted “kamala IS brat”, invoking a girl who is a little messy, says some dumb things and might have a breakdown, but who feels herself and is honest.

Whether the vibe of Ms Harris’ so-called #brat moment succeeds or fails will depend on whether it’s a genuine grassroots movement that just fell out of a coconut tree, or merely a viral marketing meme that’s less Chartreuse and more of an astroturfed green on the RGB colour wheel.

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Original URL: https://www.ntnews.com.au/news/world/trump-v-harris-massive-war-chests-to-win-the-white-house/news-story/49a3e36e461c7d2b16b0cdf5be2d7e9d