Crucial year looms for Joe Biden, Donald Trump as jostling begins over 2024 presidential election

Over a drink with his French counterpart, Joe Biden confirmed his plans for another presidential campaign. But will he face Donald Trump again?

Saint Croix, a beachside destination in the US Virgin Islands, is where Joe Biden does some of his best thinking.

He and his wife Jill are regular visitors over the holidays, including in 2019 as they mulled over launching a White House run against Donald Trump.

Last weekend, they were back again to soak up the winter sun and the sea breeze, and to consider whether the oldest US president in history would seek a second term.

This time, however, it was a question of when rather than if Biden would confirm his plans.

By averting a Republican red wave in November’s midterm elections, the 80-year-old bought himself time to announce his 2024 re-election bid on his own terms, and all but silenced calls from some Democrats for him to pass the baton to a younger leader.

US President Joe Biden plays golf during his St Croix vacation. Picture: Saul Loeb/AFP

It seemed only the First Lady could talk him out of running again.

But even before their winter getaway, she appeared to have made up her mind, reportedly telling French President Emmanuel Macron at a White House state dinner that they were preparing for the campaign.

Macron toasted Biden with his glass of wine, and his American counterpart raised his Coke.

At the halfway point of his presidency, it means the only candidates in the 2024 race so far are the two contenders from 2020: Biden and Trump.

This year will go a long way to determining whether either of them can win again. Returning from his vacation, Biden started the political year at a rundown bridge in Kentucky alongside Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, spruiking a federally funded upgrade that had been hampered by years of partisan gridlock in Washington DC.

“We can work together. We can get things done,” Biden said.

Joe Biden shakes hands with Mitch McConnell in front of the Brent Spence Bridge in Kentucky. Picture: Jim Watson/AFP

At that moment, McConnell’s Republican colleagues were embroiled in a once-in-a-century brawl to pick a new Speaker in the House of Representatives, after presumptive leader Kevin McCarthy failed to corral a band of rebels dubbed the “Taliban 20”.

According to David Smith, an American politics expert at Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, the open warfare that paralysed the House for days is “a portent of what is to come”.

He says the “bitter divide” in the Republican Party means they will struggle to pass any major legislation. Even if they manage that without Democratic support, their agenda will be blocked by the Democrats’ Senate majority.

And if Republican House leaders seek a bipartisan consensus, their hard-right members will likely rebel again.

This means Biden faces an almighty fight later this year to raise America’s debt limit and sign government spending bills, although, as Smith points out: “These showdowns never actually end well for Republicans when they’re seen as responsible for either shutting down the government or bringing the US to the brink of default.”

Kevin McCarthy loses yet another vote to be the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Picture: Mandel Ngan/AFP

Biden’s hands will also be tied in the event of a recession this year, although International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva says the US economy remains “remarkably resilient” in the face of a slowdown she expects will hit a third of the world in 2023.

To calm voters worried about the economy, the President will instead have to reprise his act from Kentucky by allocating and then spruiking trillions of dollars in already legislated initiatives, including on electric cars, high-speed internet and semiconductor manufacturing.

Smith tips Republican divisions in the House will see them pivot to prioritise committee probes targeting Biden’s weak points, including the border crisis and the questionable business dealings of his son Hunter.

While this could make some political hay, Republican National Committee boss Ronna McDaniel warned with an eye to next year’s election: “If we are divided, we will lose.”

Donald Trump sees in the New Year at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida. Picture: Joe Raedle/Getty Images/AFP

The shadow of Trump hangs over the Grand Old Party.

While his influence is waning – his candidates lost key midterm races and he failed to convince hard-right allies to back McCarthy – his anti-establishment brand of politics is overpowering traditional conservatism.

Nevertheless, despite the former president’s mounting legal problems – particularly over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election – his core supporter base remains strong.

If multiple Republicans challenge him for the 2024 nomination, Smith predicts this could cause a repeat of 2016, splitting the field and making Trump difficult to defeat.

That could be averted if the party rallies around Ron DeSantis. While the Florida Governor is unlikely to officially enter the race until the middle of the year, he sounded a lot like a presidential contender when he was sworn in this week after his convincing re-election win.

DeSantis did not name Biden or Trump, but he gave them both plenty to think about.

Originally published as Crucial year looms for Joe Biden, Donald Trump as jostling begins over 2024 presidential election