Territory election on a knife’s edge, shock polling shows

THE NORTHERN Territory election result is balanced on a knife’s edge with Labor unlikely to hold on to its majority and Territory Alliance emerging as a serious force, new polling reveals.

The Northern Territory election result is balanced on a knife’s edge with Labor unlikely to hold on to its majority and Territory Alliance emerging as a serious force, new polling reveals. Pictured is the NT’s Parliament House. Picture: Katrina Bridgeford

THE NORTHERN Territory election result is balanced on a knife’s edge with Labor unlikely to hold on to its majority and Territory Alliance emerging as a serious force, new polling reveals.

An independent MediaReach poll, commissioned by Territory Alliance, and obtained by the NT News shows a hung parliament is the most likely outcome on August 22.

The poll predicts Labor could be wiped out in the key battlegrounds of Palmerston and Alice Springs, with Territory Alliance the party most likely to pick up those seats.

The CLP appears to have made up little ground since its disastrous 2016 election result, with most disaffected Labor voters either undecided or shifting to Territory Alliance.

The poll predicts Territory Alliance and Labor will each likely win at least seven seats, the CLP at least two, with at least two independents.

But with a large percentage of voters to make up their minds, seven seats are considered too close to call.

MediaReach accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 election, even forecasting the possibility then chief minister Adam Giles could lose his seat of Braitling – a result few others anticipated.

The results of Media Reach's independent polling for the upcoming NT election.

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Preferences are set to play a crucial role in the 2020 election outcome with Chief Minister Michael Gunner the only candidate in any seat polling at more than 50 per cent.

Labor is tipped to maintain its long-term hold over much of Darwin’s northern suburbs but even in a best-case scenario the poll predicts it will win only 12 seats, one short of a majority.

If the poll result was replicated on election day, Mr Gunner, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison, Tourism Minister Lauren Moss and Health Minister Natasha Fyles would all hold their seats comfortably.

Joel Bowden has increased his primary vote since winning the Johnston by-election in February and Ngaree Ah Kit is ahead in Karama.

But Kate Worden could be under threat from Territory Alliance candidate Amelia Nuku in Sanderson.

Territory Alliance is given a narrow chance of attaining a 13-seat majority, however, this relies on the unlikely scenario of a flawless campaign and favourable preferences from the CLP and Labor.

And even in a best-case scenario, the CLP is tipped to win just five seats.

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CLP leader Lia Finocchiaro will hold Spillett and Ian Sloan looks in a strong position in Daly. Port Darwin is shaping as a tight three-way contest between the CLP’s Toby George, Labor’s Paul Kirby and TA’s Gary Strachan. Labor’s Mark Monaghan and Territory Alliance’s Jeff Collins are neck-and-neck in Fong Lim, where the CLP’s Kylie Bonanni polled just 7 per cent.

The shift away from Labor is most pronounced in Palmerston, Katherine and Alice Springs.

Territory Alliance deputy leader Robyn Lambley is likely to retain Araluen, while star candidate Dale McIver is ahead in Braitling.

Voters appear to have deserted Labor in Namatjira with the CLP’s Bill Yan just ahead of TA’s Matt Paterson.

Katherine will be fought between Territory Alliance and the CLP with Labor yet to announce a candidate.

Territory Alliance leader Terry Mills’s popularity in Palmerston appears to be having an impact with his party ahead in Blain, Brennan and Drysdale.

Kezia Purick is well ahead in Goyder while Nelson shapes as an interesting battle between Independent Beverley Ratahi, Territory Alliance’s Andy Harley and the CLP’s Gerard Maley.

Yingiya Mark Guyula looks in a strong position to hold Mulka.

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About 200 voters in each of 21 seats were surveyed via robocalls for the poll, that was conducted in May and June.

Four seats – Gwoja, Arnhem, Arafura and Barkly – were too difficult to poll.

In final seat allocations. the pollster assumed Gwoja, Arnhem and Arafura will remain with Labor, with Barkly between Labor and the CLP.