YouGov poll predicts Labor Claire Clutterham to beat Liberal James Stevens in eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt

A federal election opinion poll is predicting Greens preferences will be crucial in deciding the Liberal stronghold of Sturt, Paul Starick writes.

The eastern Adelaide Liberal stronghold of Sturt is within Labor’s grasp for the first time in decades because of the party’s waning brand strength and a predicted Greens preference flow.

Polling released by YouGov on Thursday morning projects Labor will win Sturt, snaring 50.7 per cent of the two-party preferred vote with a 1.1 per cent swing.

This would be the first time Sturt, which stretches from Hope Valley in the north to Leawood Gardens in the south, has been in Labor hands since 1972.

Rival pollster RedBridge, though, expects Liberal incumbent James Stevens to add to the Liberal primary vote in Sturt.

YouGov projects Mr Stevens will attract 37.7 per cent of the primary vote, compared to 31.9 per cent for Labor’s Claire Clutterham, 14 per cent for the Greens’ Katie McCusker, 5.9 per cent Other, 5.7 per cent for One Nation’s Peter Bogatec and 4.8 per cent for independent Verity Cooper.

Preferences from Greens candidate for Sturt Katie McCusker are poised to be highly influential come Saturday. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Dean Martin

This would be a six-point slump in Mr Stevens’ primary vote since the 2022 election and a three-point One Nation increase, while Dr Cooper, a GP from the prominent brewing family, is likely to snare some Liberal support.

YouGov’s projections assume only a slight rise in Labor support from 30.66 per cent at the 2022 election, despite Prime Minister Anthony Albanese rating Ms Clutterham as “certainly future ministerial material”.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with Labor Sturt candidate Claire Clutterham. Picture: NewsWire / Roy VanDerVegt

The key to Labor’s projected victory is preference flows from the Greens and others outstripping One Nation’s – that will probably end up with the Liberals.

High-profile former defence minister Christopher Pyne survived spirited Labor challenges during his 26-year reign in Sturt, which he held from 1993 to 2019.

Mr Pyne, who was renowned as a tenacious on-ground campaigner, survived a swing of almost 6 per cent against him when the Howard government was deposed in 2007.

Labor’s Mia Handshin lost by just 1712 votes, having gained 41.46 primary support, when the Greens vote was 6.41 per cent.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton with Sturt MP James Stevens at a Greek Orthodox Easter Service in 2023 at Athelstone. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Emma Brasier

Mr Stevens lacks the profile of his predecessor Mr Pyne, who zealously sought the spotlight, but he should definitely not be written off in the face of a Green preference wave.

A director of pollster RedBridge Group, Tony Barry – a former Pyne adviser – told The Advertiser: “On our data, James Stevens has high net favourability numbers and a strong re-elect figure, so we expect him to add to the party vote. In qualitative research, voters in Sturt believe they have shared values with Stevens and their perceptions are that he is aligned with their priorities.”

Whatever the result, it is unlikely that Sturt will be decided on Saturday night.

Originally published as YouGov poll predicts Labor Claire Clutterham to beat Liberal James Stevens in eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt