SA state election 2026: YouGov poll tips Malinauskas Labor to annihilate of SA Liberals

Labor is heading for a victory of staggering proportions at next March’s state election, an exclusive opinion poll reveals. See the stark numbers.

SA Premier Peter Malinauskas address Defending Australia 2025 at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman

Peter Malinauskas is storming towards a historic election landslide that would consign his Liberal rivals to a future-threatening two seats, a bombshell opinion poll reveals.

In extraordinary support for a government nine months from an election, Labor is holding a record 67 per cent to 33 per cent lead in two-party preferred stakes.

The YouGov poll shows Labor’s first-preference support has surged to 48 per cent – an eight-point jump from its landslide 2022 victory – while the Liberals are languishing at 21 per cent, a 15-point slump.

If repeated at the March 21 state election, the Liberals would hold only the electorates of Chaffey and Flinders – in the Riverland and Eyre Peninsula respectively – in the 47-seat lower house.

The annihilation would mirror the Liberals’ Western Australian disaster at the hands of Labor in 2021 – the biggest landslide victory in Australian history, in terms of seats held by a governing party.

Following a metropolitan Adelaide wipe-out at May’s federal election, the Liberal Party would be pushed to the brink of oblivion in the state.

YouGov director of public data Paul Smith said: “An election held today would be the biggest win for the Labor Party in South Australian electoral history.

“A uniform two-party preferred swing of 12.4 per cent to Labor would see Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia among the 11 of the 13 Liberals in state parliament losing their seats, a catastrophic defeat.

“The Liberals being reduced to only two seats would be the worst result in 168 years for the conservative side of politics, going right back to the first state election in 1857.”

Mr Smith said the only worse result than the SA poll forecast for the conservative side of politics, anywhere in Australia since Labor’s formation, was the 2021 WA election.

In that result, Mark McGowan-led Labor secured 69.7 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, 2.7 per cent more than YouGov is projecting if an SA election was held now.

The poll of 903 people, taken from May 15-28 in the federal election aftermath, shows primary and two-party support for the Liberals has collapsed even since that rout, when they were left without a metropolitan Adelaide seat.

YouGov analysis shows only 66 per cent of SA Coalition voters at the May 3 federal poll now intend to support the state Liberals at next March’s election.

Extraordinarily, Labor’s highest primary support is among the traditional Liberal over 65s base, with 55 per cent backing the ALP and 25 per cent the Liberals.

Labor even nears majority primary support outside Adelaide, with 48 per cent compared to the Liberals 27 per cent.

Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia speaks at the SA Press Club leaders' debate on March 21. Picture: Brenton Edwards

Primary support for the Liberals is mired below 30 per cent in every age group, region and education level, with the strongest results outside Adelaide (27 per cent) and among the 65-plus age group and tertiary educated (both 25 per cent).

“The Liberal vote collapse is most marked among younger voters where they have only 15 per cent support among 18-34 year olds, placing them third behind Labor and the Greens,” YouGov’s Mr Smith said.

Mr Malinauskas is likely to respond by repeating previous warnings to his troops that unfolding events can change political fortunes rapidly.

Asked by The Advertiser after Labor’s historic Dunstan by-election in March last year if he was concerned about arrogance creeping into his government, Mr Malinauskas bluntly replied: “That is something that won’t be tolerated … The test for us as a team isn’t the size of majority in the parliament or a particular vote outcome. The test is whether or not we’re getting things done, whether or not we’re delivering for the state.”

Mr Tarzia had been optimistic after his budget reply speech on Tuesday, in which he laid out a broad policy framework and vowed to scrap stamp duty for first-home buyers on established houses or apartments up to $1m in value.

“This coming election, South Australia is at a crossroads. Labor's path is predictable: more spin, more debt and broken promises,” he said.

“But the Liberal path is crystal clear: homes for the next generation; affordable, reliable essential services there when you need them; a budget that honours taxpayers dollars; safer streets, stronger regions, and a booming economy.”

Originally published as SA state election 2026: YouGov poll tips Malinauskas Labor to annihilate of SA Liberals