Former US national security adviser H.R. McMaster lifts lid on Trump’s AUKUS stance, China threat and Iran

Donald Trump’s former national security adviser has warned that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party are preparing for war – and looking for signs of weakness in the West.

Former US national security adviser HR McMaster has issued a stark warning about China’s military ambitions, saying that Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is preparing for war – and looking for signs of weakness in its Western adversaries.

Donald Trump’s former adviser believes the AUKUS alliance, comprising Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, will remain robust as defence agendas align against what he termed the “axis of aggressors” in China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea.

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In an exclusive interview for News Corp’s Defending Australia forum, Mr McMaster, speaking to former Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer, said China’s aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific region should be cause for concern.

Over the past two decades, China had invested a 44-fold increase in its defence budget and a 400 per cent increase in its nuclear arsenal, the former US Army Lieutenant General said.

“We have to take this seriously, I think, and recognise that the CCP … is preparing for war,” he said.

“What the message should be … from Australia and the United States to our friends in Asia and beyond is, hey, it’s not a choice. It’s not a choice between Washington and Beijing. It’s a choice between sovereignty and servitude.”

US President Donald Trump with National Security Adviser HR McMaster in his first term. Picture: AFP

In May, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te called on European leaders to stand in the face of a “new totalitarian group”. Xi subsequently issued a statement asserting China’s claims on Taiwan and opposing “any form of ‘Taiwan independence’”.

Mr McMaster believed that statement signalled the Chinese leader’s readiness to act on his ambitions of invasion and, he warned, a flashpoint for further conflict.

A show of strength, Mr McMaster said, was critical.

He drew parallels between the “self-defeat” of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan under the Biden administration and Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine.

“It looks to me like we were green-lighting the invasion,” he said.

“The perception of weakness is provocative and Xi Jinping, I think, is looking for signs of weakness.

“If our potential enemies conclude that our will is zero, I think we’re in a very dangerous situation. It’s a heck of a lot cheaper to prevent a war than to have to fight one.”

Last week, Australia’s crucial AUKUS nuclear submarine deal was clouded by a Pentagon review into its alignment with the America First agenda, while Australia remains subject to growing pressure from the Trump administration to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP.

Mr Trump has never publicly stated his opinion of the $368bn AUKUS trilateral submarine program struck under his predecessor Joe Biden between the US, Australia and the UK.

Former Oval Office insider Mr McMaster, who acknowledged the president’s past failings in negotiations with former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, described Donald Trump as a man who “learns conversationally” and whose approach to foreign policy was reflexively contrarian.

But he believed a continuation of the AUKUS relationship, the US-Australia bilateral alliance, and NATO alliance was in the President’s best interests.

“He’s not an ideological person, and he sees himself as a disrupter,” he said.

“He’s in the hospitality business, so his public persona is very brash, you know, maybe borderline offensive … but he typically is pretty gracious in person. He can be engaging and he does listen.

“He doesn’t really maybe understand the depth of our relationship and the degree to which we’ve sacrificed alongside one another … but he does understand how our interests coincide.”

China, he said, would prove a crucial negotiation chip for Australia.

“China wants to own the ocean. It’s in both our nation’s vital interests to ensure freedom of navigation,” he said.

“We know that China wants to create servile relationships across the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

“They tried that with Australia through economic coercion and failed. I think (Trump) respects that. He respects the fact that Australia has stood up to Chinese Communist Party coercion.”

Mr McMaster believed Mr Trump’s Congress would be urging the president to preserve relationships with US allies as threats from the “axis of aggressors” in China, Russia, North Korea and Iran loomed increasingly larger.

Former Trump administration National Security Adviser HR McMaster says Australia and the US’s interests remain aligned. Picture: AFP

“We’re not a monarchy, and there still is a very strong consensus in favour of our alliance,” he said.

“(Trump) has Congress who cares about our relationships, he has people in his administration who I’m sure are telling him: ‘Mr. President, if we shoot all of our allies to get to China, China wins’.

“I have confidence that we are going to get to a positive agenda. It’s just a question of how painful it is before that happens … I hope it’s not too painful.”

On the Middle East, the former national security adviser said he was deeply sceptical of ongoing nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, saying the previous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under the Obama administration was effectively a “political defeat”.

Last week, Mr Trump called on Israel not to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, saying a deal remained close if Tehran compromised. That call was ignored, with Israel since declaring a special state of emergency after Iran returned fire on pre-emptive strikes levelled last week.

“Can you do that (block nuclear ambitions) through negotiation? I pretty much doubt it,” Mr McMaster said.

“The long-term prospects for an agreement that really blocks Iran’s path to the most destructive weapons on earth – which ought to be the objective – are pretty dim.

“I think it’s going to come down to enrichment or no enrichment ... (but) how the hell do you really trust these people?”

Originally published as Former US national security adviser H.R. McMaster lifts lid on Trump’s AUKUS stance, China threat and Iran