Fate of four key seats including Arnhem and Fong Lim to be decided as NTEC recount begins
THE political future of Labor frontbencher Selena Uibo and candidates in three other key seats could be decided today
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THE political future of Labor frontbencher Selena Uibo and candidates in three other key seats could be decided today as the NT Electoral Commission shifts into full count mode.
The NTEC will be correcting the two candidate preferred counts across five seats, four of which remained in doubt yesterday, as ballot papers are recounted.
Algorithms in Arnhem will switch to projected flows between Ms Uibo, who is ahead on first preferences, and independent Ian Gumbula while Katherine, Fong Lim and Blain will switch to a two-way fight between Labor and the CLP.
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An NTEC spokesman said the election night two-party preferred was only indicative and had been determined prior to the start of counting.
“The two-candidate preferred is wrong in some divisions in virtually every election, all states and federal,” he said.
“In this election the introduction of a third major party made the determination of the TCP for election night more difficult.”
Almost 4000 postal votes were counted on Sunday, with NTEC staff able to finish up in less than three hours.
Overall, the postal vote flow had minimal impact on the outcome thus far, though election boffins, including Tasmania’s Kevin Bonham and ABC’s Antony Green, have tipped Labor’s Sid Vashist to retain Barkly and frontbencher Paul Kirby to retain Port Darwin.
Dr Bonham said postal votes had “somewhat unexpectedly” increased Ms Lambley’s lead in the nailbiting race for Araluen and she “should now survive barring counting errors”.
Namatjira, which earlier Sunday was tipping ever so slightly to Labor’s Sheralee Taylor, could now go to CLP’s Bill Yan.
Labor’s Anthony Venes and CLP’s Ian Sloan are neck and neck on first preferences in Daly.
Neither Chief Minister Michael Gunner nor Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro made an appearance on Sunday and it’s understood the CLP leader has not yet called Mr Gunner to concede defeat.
At the moment Labor has comfortably claimed Fannie Bay, Wanguri, Nightcliff, Casuarina, Karama, Gwoja, Sanderson, Johnston, Port Darwin and Drysdale.
Arafura has more than likely been won by Labor’s Lawrence Costa.
Labor has probably lost Braitling’s Dale Wakefield, though Charles Darwin University Professor Rolf Gerrisen thinks there’s a slim chance she could pull through on preferences.
Regardless, the retirement of Gerry McCarthy in Barkly, will require a cabinet reshuffle.
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Sanderson MLA Kate Worden’s spectacular swing of 8 per cent to Labor in the bellwether seat, where she now sits on 60 per cent of first preferences, could see her move to the frontbench.
The CLP has comfortably retained Spillett and will claim Nelson. ‘
Both parties are hopeful in Blain and Brennan.
The two certain independent candidates are Goyder’s Kezia Purick and Yingiya Guyula in Mulka.
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