This evaluation should be openly tendered and awarded to the most qualified and able people with the skills to deal with the complexities involved

THE NT needs intergenerational change in alcohol harm, built on intervention trials, independent evaluation and the long-term picture

THE NT needs intergenerational change in alcohol harm, built on intervention trials, independent evaluation and the long-term picture.

Matt Cunningham raises important questions in his piece reporting increases in alcohol-related hospital attendances and in alcohol-fuelled assaults and domestic violence over the past 12 months.

This is very sad news and warrants serious consideration which explores all of the potential factors involved.

The government introduced a range of measures recommended by the independent Riley review in line with best practice from around the world, and based on key public health success stories (eg drunk-driving).

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All of these interventions impact differently on different drinkers, and we need to measure a wide range of impacts over time to be confident of overall trends.

Simple reporting of raw numbers and industry anecdotes are unlikely to give us the information required to make genuine improvements.

Pre-COVID, we saw 10-40 per cent reductions in assaults and hospital admissions from 2017 levels; they were early results.

Properly conducted evaluations need time to assess the trends, partially because of the need to be able to use the appropriate statistical models, and because interventions need to become embedded.

Of course, as a price-based intervention, we would expect that the impact of the minimum unit price (MUP) would be undermined during JobKeeper when people have more money to spend on alcohol; especially those who are dependent.

As JobKeeper is removed, we may see some reductions occur, but sadly, the trauma on families and communities will likely drag out for quite some time.

A well-designed analysis will need modelling that accounts for welfare and royalty payments.

The data showed that pre-COVID/JobKeeper, wholesale sales of cheap wine dropped by 50 per cent and there was no significant change in other beverages and this was not in line with the anecdotes of frontline workers and the hospitality industry; they only see specific cases/customers.

We have not seen reliable data since. It would be very helpful if the alcohol industry made their sales data available at suburb level in real time so that we can all know what data they are talking about.

It’s crucial to have all sources of data before making a conclusion.

This is particularly relevant in the post COVID/JobKeeper time, with many variables at play.

For example, the introduction of an additional emergency department may increase the convenience of accessing emergency care, potentially increasing numbers.

A comprehensive evaluation needs to unpick the potential impacts of these factors – not just make simplistic conclusions based on raw numbers.

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This work will take time and expertise. The government has committed to an independent, three-year evaluation.

This evaluation should be openly tendered and awarded to the most qualified and able people with the skills to deal with the complexities involved, as the NT government has reported they are currently doing.

Only then will we be able to draw confident conclusions about the impact of MUP on harm.

Peter Miller is a violence prevention and addiction studies professor at the School of Psychology, Deakin University