If the evidence shows a policy is not working, the government needs the courage to move on

Alcohol causes a huge amount of damage in the NT and the government was right to try to address this issue … Yet it lets itself down by cherrypicking the data that points to their success while keeping quiet the evidence that might reveal their failure, WRITES MATT CUNNINGHAM.

STATISTICS can sometimes tell you a lot.

There are also times when they tell you not much at all.

Take this example: If you enter the words “Bayview” and “midges” into Google you’ll find this gem from a housing developer. “Bayview has the lowest complain (sic) record of all Darwin suburbs in respect of mosquitoes and midges.”

This will come as a surprise to anyone who’s ever been to Bayview, then spent the next five days furiously scratching their ankles. Perhaps the residents of this exclusive suburb have simply resigned themselves to the company of these little biters and figured there’s no point complaining.

The Bayview example is worth considering when it comes to examining the success or otherwise of the NT government’s alcohol reforms.

Some data sets will give us good insight into whether the reforms have been effective, others will prove about as insightful as a self-reporting survey on Bayview midges.

MORE MATT CUNNINGHAM OPINIONS

Colour of skin shouldn’t mean voice not heard

Speech must remain free in a democracy

Alice Springs crisis must be fixed

Alcohol causes a huge amount of damage in the NT and the government was right to try to address this issue.

Its reforms have been the most significant of any administration in the country – possibly the world.

Yet it lets itself down by cherrypicking the data that points to their success while keeping quiet the evidence that might reveal their failure.

From the outset the government has been deliberately vague about how its reforms would be assessed. The most obvious gauge would be alcohol-related assaults and emergency department presentations. The government had volunteered this information in October 2019 when it appeared its reforms were having a positive impact.

Yet as of last month, the alcohol-related hospital presentations had not been published on the government’s evaluation website for almost a year. When we asked for and obtained this information it showed there had been significant increases in alcohol-fuelled hospital presentations across the Territory in the past 12 months.

More significantly, there has been consecutive year-on-year increases in alcohol-related emergency department presentations in Darwin and Palmerston in each year since the introduction of the alcohol floor price.

MORE NT NEWS OPINIONS AND EDITORIALS

NT’s COVID vaccine rollout program needs to be much better

The Beach Club is a perfect example of the innovation we need, why dump it?

Maningrida in youth crime crisis

The Darwin and Palmerston data is considered particularly relevant when assessing the floor price, as the Top End doesn’t have measures used in other centres, such as police on bottle shops.

The data shows there was a 5.5 per cent increase in alcohol-related ED presentations in the first 12 months after the floor price was introduced, and a further 11 per cent increase the next year. Couple this with the fact alcohol-related assaults in Darwin are at their highest level since 2011 (and 2014 for Palmerston) and it would appear to indicate the floor price is struggling to have an impact when it comes to reducing alcohol-fuelled harm.

It’s a different story to the one the government was trying to tell 12 months ago. “The Territory Labor government’s alcohol reforms aimed at cutting alcohol related crime and anti-social behaviour and harm across the NT are working,” it boldly declared in a press release on April 29, 2020. In light of recent data, that statement looks a bit like George W Bush putting the “Mission Accomplished” sign up on the USS Abraham Lincoln six weeks after the beginning of the Iraq War.

But there are still people ready to find success in the government’s reforms. In February, Deakin University PhD candidate Nicholas Taylor and Professor of Violence Prevention and Addiction Studies Peter Miller published a piece on The Conversation website pointing to the floor price’s success.

The argument was based on steep reductions in cask wine consumption (48.48 per cent in Darwin and Palmerston and 50.57 per cent across the NT) with the authors reporting there has been no notable substitution for other products. Police are now telling a different story, saying they have seen a marked shift from wine to spirits, in particular Bundaberg Rum.

HOT NEW DEAL: $1 for 28 days subscription offer

Professor Miller delivered a more sober assessment in last week’s Sunday Territorian, arguing it was crucial to have all sources of data before making a conclusion. Other factors such as having an extra emergency department at Palmerston and the impact of COVID stimulus payments needed to be considered. Professor Miller also stressed the importance of an independent evaluation of the reforms.

This is crucial. There are many people hoping the government’s measures will fail, but at least as many invested in their success. None should be involved in determining their effectiveness. And if the evidence shows a policy is not working, the government needs the courage to move on.