How Territorians can help our population crisis by doing one simple thing with Medicare

OF course we are all doomed, and there’s nothing we can do.Shops are shutting and people are leaving the place in droves. Most worrying, loss of population will lose us GST income, writes CHIPS MACKINOLTY

Chips Mackinolty says Territorians can do one simple thing to help with our future

OF course we are all doomed, and there’s nothing we can do.

Shops are shutting and people are leaving the place in droves. Most worrying, loss of population will lose us GST income.

While preparing for Cyclone Trevor last week, the latest statistics told us the NT population dropped by 0.2% in the September 2018 quarter—just as there have been net population slides over six other quarters in the last five years.

The main problem for population loss? Interstate migration.

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But before the usual pundits start blaming the current—or indeed any previous—Northern Territory government for the continuing loss of population to interstate migration, we need to understand some of the great myths of what really makes up growth in the Territory’s population.

And we need to understand what we, as Territorians, can do pretty much straight away to get more accurate figures for our population, and secure our share of the GST—and we don’t need the government to do anything. We can do it ourselves.

The first myth is that the major source of population growth in the Northern Territory has been through migration from interstate — it’s complete nonsense.

Since this data was first collected in 1981, interstate immigration has only been in positive territory 30 per cent of the time. Indeed, while the Territory’s population has roughly doubled over that time, net loss to interstate movements totaled 26,261 people between June 1981 and March quarter 2018—more than 700 people a year. Of this, nearly 15,000 net losses have occurred since December 2012.

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Since 1981, the overwhelming and only real contribution to population growth has been the birth rate and overseas immigration.

It is reasonably well documented that the Territory has by far the highest population turnover of any jurisdiction in the nation—seven per cent in 2009—which suggests the popular wisdom, that the voting population “churns” about 30 per cent between the local four year election cycle, is pretty well on the mark.

The second myth is that our population growth has been dependent on “major projects”—particularly extractive industries. Again, this is simply untrue.

The only significant periods of population growth from interstate migration have been sharply aligned to developments in the Northern Territory economy: the “empire building” following self government in the early 1980s, the defence build up of the mid-1990s, and government-led capital works projects between 2007-2009. But as those periods of economic activity tapered off, people left in their thousands.

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While general economic activity increased during these booms—and was sustained over the longer term—and Inpex features heavily in this general increase.

But what about Inpex? Unlike previous “booms”, it apparently contributed nothing to interstate population growth—quite the opposite. While figures were bandied about of around 8,000 jobs being made available through Inpex and related work, interstate migration was in the negative—to the tune of 10,500 people between 2011-2017.

Aerial of Inpex's Ichthys LNG Project

What can explain this?

Simple. The kind of worker involved. Unlike previous economic expansion periods, the workforce was overwhelmingly imported. They were predominantly FIFO short termers and workers here for only a year or so. While there was some local employment, the vast majority was from elsewhere.

But why should this matter?

For the simple reason that the overwhelming majority of the latest boom were males aged between 18-30 years old. This is a demographic that is notoriously disinclined to go to doctors or seek medical help beyond on-site first aid—at best.

What this means is that—again overwhelmingly—they are entirely unlikely to change their residential details with Medicare. They will still be registered back in their home towns in Queensland, WA or wherever. The strong suspicion is that few Inpex workers—among many others—ever thought to do it.

What the hell has that got to do with anything?

Again pretty simple. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) relies in part on the five yearly national census—but in large part its work also involves data collection at far more regular intervals. In the case of population change such as interstate migration—every three months. Obviously, the ABS doesn’t hang around airports or highways leading in and out of the NT counting who’s coming in and out of the place. Instead, its “inter censal” count for this purpose is primarily based on changes in residential addresses for Medicare card holders, an anonymised method which counts all citizens other than defence force personnel which are calculated in other ways.

Change of residential address? Something young males tend not to be bothered with—which is why the influx of significant numbers of workers for the big projects rarely register—even though they might spend many months and years on the job here in the Territory, use our roads, boat ramps and sports grounds, and benefit from many other tax paid community facilities.

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And why is this important? Well, apart from helping all of us with planning, each person living as a resident is counted towards GST receipts. At the moment the rough calculation is $10,000 a head per annum. A thousand people is worth $10 million to the Territory citizens, and not just as a one off payment—but for the years to come that you stay here.

And from my point of view, having been involved over many years in health policy and advocacy, the GST dollars we are missing come at the expense of funding front line health services, and translating research into better treatment on the ground. At this level, the GST saves lives of Territorians.

So what can we do? Let’s start a campaign to make sure all Territorians have their Medicare address registered here at home.

For you? You may have come here for a short visit, fell in love with the place and got a job—so change your Medicare registration.

And the same goes for your family and your friends. Ask them where they are registered, and persuade them to bring it up to date—you can do it on the Internet.

At your workplace, check it out with your colleagues—see if they are locally registered for Medicare, even if they have been here for a few years.

Own a business? Check with your employees—and certainly make sure any interstate recruits get their Medicare details up to date when they start work with you.

And big places such as mines, hotels, construction businesses, tourist operations, hospitals, schools, universities and research institutes? Make it a condition of employment that your workers change their Medicare details. Make sure your interstate students update their details. Medical clinics? Ensure your new patients bring everything up to date.

And you blokes between 18 and 30? Pull your bloody fingers out and get it done.

Chips Mackinolty is a long-term Territorian who currently works for the Alice Springs-based Researcherenye Wappayalawangka—Central Australia Academic Health Science Network. His Medicare details are up to date.