NT News analysis shows Labor has a battle holding onto power in the 2020 election

A SEAT-BY-SEAT analysis of Territory Parliament one year out from the election shows the CLP can pull off a miraculous victory.

Michael Gunner is in the fight of his life to hang onto Government in 2020

A SEAT-BY-SEAT analysis of Territory Parliament one year out from the election shows the CLP can pull off a miraculous victory.

The analysis, by the NT News, shows if an election was held today Labor could lose seven seats, taking them from 16 to 9.

Labor won the 2016 election with 18 seats, however, Jeff Collins and Scott McConnell have since left the party and are now independents. Dumped minister Ken Vowles is still with the Labor party, however, it is unclear what will happen with him between now and next year.

The CLP, on the other hand, are predicted to pick up as many as 10 seats, taking them to 12 — still one short of a majority needed to govern in their own right.

If this prediction was to unfold, it would leave the balance of power with the independents, of which the NT News is predicting four will be elected — Terry Mills, Robyn Lambley, Kezia Purick and Delia Lawrie.

The analysis shows Labor would pick up only two seats — Nhulunbuy and Stuart.

The nin sitting Labor members predicted to be ousted from office are Gerry McCarthy in Barkly, Tony Sievers in Brennan, Dale Wakefield in Braitling, Lauren Moss in Casuarina, Ngaree Ah Kit in Karama, Sandra Nelson in Katherine, Chansey Paech in Namatjira, Paul Kirby in Port Darwin and Kate Worden in Sanderson.

But, as they say, a year is a long time in politics.

Arafura

Elected Member: Lawrence Costa (ALP)

Margin: 4.7%

Lay of the land: The ALP’s Lawrence Costa has arguably the lowest profile of any member in Territory Parliament and his list of achievements are minimal since being elected. He rarely speaks publicly on any issue. Costa snatched the seat, which includes the Tiwi Islands, from the CLP’s Francis Kurrupuwu in the 2016 election. The history of the seat shows it has been a Labor stronghold since 1983 and electors voted strongly Labor at the federal poll. But if the CLP can field a strong candidate, Arafura might be within reach, particularly with a relatively small margin to make up.

Prediction: ALP HOLD.

Lawrence Costa

Araluen

Elected Member: Robyn Lambley (IND)

Margin: 8.2%

Lay of the land: The former CLP Treasurer-come independent has been very effective speaking out against the Government during the past three years. Lambley is a fearless political operator and her former CLP cronies could learn a lot from her attack dog mentality. It’s up in the air whether Lambley will stay as an independent, join a new party or go back to the CLP, but whatever the case she looks a very safe bet to hold onto her seat. If she stays an independent, there’s a chance the CLP could run Joshua Burgoyne or Jacinta Price against her, however, they will likely be targeted at more winnable seats.

Prediction: IND HOLD

Robyn Lambley

Arnhem

Elected Member: Selena Uibo (ALP)

Margin: 14.3%

Lay of the land: Selena Uibo has been one of the better performers of the Gunner Government and was rewarded for her efforts and patience last year with the education and Aboriginal affairs portfolios. She is well known and popular within her electorate and should hold on for another term but could be vulnerable to an independent incursion from a strong indigenous candidate.

Prediction: ALP HOLD

Selena Uibo

Barkly

Elected Member: Gerry McCarthy (ALP)

Margin: 8%

Lay of the land: The Member for Barkly’s time is up in Parliament. McCarthy has kept a relatively low portfolio as housing and public employment minister, despite the fact the Gunner Government’s public service hiring freeze and wage freeze for its executives have been constant hot button issues. Meanwhile, Tennant Creek mayor and CLP servant Steve Edgington has been raising his profile and getting things done. If Edgington runs against him, McCarthy has slim chance of survival. He knows it too - his weekly column in the local paper the Tennant Creek and District Times has of late become his personal sounding board for his grievances with the mayor. It won’t be enough.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Gerry McCarthy

Blain

Elected Member: Terry Mills (IND)

Margin: 1.4%

Lay of the land: The former chief minister narrowly won this seat in 2016 and he has been effective in getting his message across as an independent. Like Lambley, it’s unclear whether he will remain an independent leading into the 2020 election but his effectiveness means he will be difficult to roll by either of the major parties.

Prediction: IND HOLD

Terry Mills

Braitling

Elected Member: Dale Wakefield (ALP)

Margin: 0.3%

Lay of the land: Dale Wakefield’s election in 2016 was an anomaly that won’t be repeated. It took an extraordinary set of circumstances for CLP heartland to elect a Labor member and that extraordinary circumstance was the deeply unpopular Adam Giles. Even then, Wakefield only won by a handful of votes. Presiding over the basketcase Territory Families hasn’t helped her case at all. For Braitling voters who want her out, August 2020 can’t come soon enough.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Dale Wakefield

Brennan

Elected Member: Tony Sievers (ALP)

Margin: 2.6%

Lay of the land: Palmerston is a weak spot for Labor and they won’t hang on to Brennan. While Labor heads boast Tony Sievers has strong name recognition in his electorate, some find the “Minister for Thumbs Up” a little irksome.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Tony Sievers

Casuarina

Elected Member: Lauren Moss (ALP)

Margin: 11.3%

Lay of the land: Moss was a surprise easy winner of this seat in 2016. She was thrust straight into a ministership which was a baptism of fire for someone who came from nowhere. The tourism portfolio has performed quite admirably under her watch however, she has been heavily supported by her chief of staff Mary Fall and Tourism department deputy chief executive Andrew Hopper. Because of her stressful entry into politics, there is speculation Moss may not even run in next year’s election. The CLP, providing they run a quality candidate, can win back the seat for the first time since 2001.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Lauren Moss

Daly

Elected Member: Gary Higgins (CLP)

Margin: 2.1%

Lay of the land: It’s fair to say Gary Higgins hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with his performance as Opposition Leader. He has plodded along in the role but you get the sense he’d rather be on the sidelines and leave the bickering to others. But he managed to hang on when almost all others were wiped out in 2016 and he will likely hang on again for what will likely be his final term.

Prediction: CLP HOLD

Gary Higgins

Drysdale

Elected Member: Eva Lawler (ALP)

Margin: 5.2%

Lay of the land: Lawler has been a semi-effective minister who is well-liked by her constituents in Palmerston. She was born in Darwin, has lived in the Territory a long time and has established connections. She has largely avoided the vitriol levelled at the Gunner Government and, for that reason, we think she can hang onto her seat - but only just.

Prediction: ALP HOLD

Eva Lawler

Fannie Bay

Elected Member: Michael Gunner (ALP)

Margin: 14.2%

Lay of the land: The Chief Minister has had a tumultuous time in office and will be in for the fight of his life to hang onto the seat he has held for 11 years. His government is clearly not popular with the electorate, however, Gunner is a relatively popular local member and is always out and about in his community and you can usually see him at the Parap markets every Saturday. It’s a big margin for someone to peg back so we think he will hang on - but only just. A seriously good CLP or independent candidate could make things interesting, however.

Prediction: ALP HOLD

Michael Gunner

Fong Lim

Elected Member: Jeff Collins (IND)

Margin: 7.8%

Lay of the land: Initially elected as a Labor member, Collins was dumped from Caucus when he spoke out publicly against the Gunner Government. He always held dreams of becoming the Attorney-General but never got close, forcing him to become a disgruntled backbencher. Collins is seen as someone who doesn’t do a great deal for his local constituents so it is highly unlikely he will hold his seat. Rumours continue to circulate that former Member for Fong Lim, Dave Tollner, may again run for a spot in Parliament. If he does, look out. There could be a potential smoky in the form of Lord Mayor Katrina Fong Lim (pardon the pun).

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Jeff Collins

Goyder

Elected Member: Kezia Purick (IND)

Margin: 25.3%

Lay of the land: The Speaker is a divisive figure in Parliament but has held her seat comfortably for the past 11 years. Purick has shown no intention of retiring from Parliament so if she runs again she will win easily again. It would take some sort of miracle to dethrone her from Goyder with such a big margin. In saying that, we feel Purick needs to be more of an advocate for the Territory in her role.

Prediction: IND HOLD

Kezia Purick

Johnston

Elected Member: Ken Vowles (ALP)

Margin: 14.7%

Lay of the land: This seat is potentially the most interesting of the 2020 election. Will Vowles still be a Labor member or will he be an independent come poll day? We’re predicting he will still be part of the Labor party at the time of the election, however, while Vowles will win his seat, it won’t go anywhere near helping Labor get a majority government. Labor have an important decision to make. Do they keep him in the tent or dump him now so they can get some sort of clear air?

Prediction: ALP HOLD

Ken Vowles

Karama

Elected Member: Ngaree Ah Kit (ALP)

Margin: 0.8%

Lay of the land: Ah Kit has been disappointing as a local member. She is rarely seen publicly despite coming into the role as someone with high hopes and expectations to deliver for her constituents. A quiet backbencher whose views on issues are not known, she is almost certain to lose her seat next year to former Labor leader Delia Lawrie who narrowly lost to Ah Kit last time around. If Delia runs next year, it won’t even be a contest. She will waltz back into Parliament.

Prediction: IND GAIN

Ngaree Ah Kit

Katherine

Elected Member: Sandra Nelson (ALP)

Margin: 0.5%

Lay of the land: Nelson was the first Labor member to be elected in the seat of Katherine since 1987. While she has announced her intention to not run in the 2020 election, she has been terribly disappointing as a local member. Seen everywhere prior to the 2016 poll, many Katherine locals say Nelson has been rarely spotted since she was elected. The CLP could put up a first year university student with only half a brain and they’d win back the seat with a huge margin.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Sandra Nelson

Namatjira

Elected Member: Chansey Paech (ALP)

Margin: 8.5%

Lay of the land: Sitting member Chansey Paech - who has ambitions for a long term career in politics - has indicated he will likely swap seats to contest Stuart next election. That makes Namatjira a bit of an unknown quantity. Whatever happens, you can be assured that ex-member Alison Anderson’s endorsement will go a long way in swaying voters one way or the other.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Chansey Paech

Nelson

Elected Member: Gerry Wood (IND)

Margin: 23%

Lay of the land: It’s hard to imagine a Territory Parliament without Gerry Wood. He’s been there since 2001 but the chicken farmer turned politician and amateur UFO spotter says this term will be his last. Whoever takes over from the hardest working MLA in the NT has big shoes to fill. While Wood will hope a good quality independent steps up to the plate, all eyes are on Gerard Maley who will likely contest for the CLP. However if former senator Nigel Scullion decides to cut short his retirement of shooting pigs and catching mudcrabs, Maley will have to try his luck elsewhere.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Gerry Wood

Nhulunbuy

Elected Member: Mark Yingiya Guyula (IND)

Margin: 0.1%

Lay of the land: Guyula pulled off the upset of the 2016 election when he toppled Labor’s Lynne Walker by only 8 votes. Walker has been quietly sitting in the background waiting for revenge and we think this is one of the very few seats the ALP can pick up next year. Guyula has been satisfactory as a local member but we think it will be difficult for him to hang onto the seat next time around and Walker will get her much-awaited revenge after four years of campaigning as a private citizen.

Prediction: ALP GAIN

Yingiya Guyula

Nightcliff

Elected Member: Natasha Fyles (ALP)

Margin: 26.9%

Lay of the land: Fyles holds the safest seat in the Territory and while she’ll be hurt at the ballot box it won’t be enough to remove her from the seat. She has been the best performing minister by far in this term of government and she is well respected by her constituents. The seat has been a Labor stronghold since 2001 and it won’t be changing next time around. If Labor don’t win government next year, expect Fyles to take over as Labor leader. We doubt she will challenge for the chief ministership between now and next year.

Prediction: ALP HOLD

Natasha Fyles

Port Darwin

Elected Member: Paul Kirby (ALP)

Margin: 2.8%

Lay of the land: Kirby took over from Ken Vowles as a minister when the latter was sacked by the Chief Minister. Kirby has hardly showered himself in glory since becoming a minister and with such a small margin, it is almost certain the seat of Port Darwin will go back to the CLP. The inside word is a distinguished lawyer is gunning for pre-selection to run for the CLP. Unfortunately for Kirby, it looks like he will be a one-term politician and he might have to head back to work for the unions - if they’ll have him.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Paul Kirby

Sanderson

Elected Member: Kate Worden (ALP)

Margin: 10.5%

Lay of the land: Worden took the seat from former deputy chief minister Peter Styles. She has largely been invisible since being elected to Parliament as a backbencher but has worked hard door knocking to fortress her electorate. Gunner has been reluctant to bring Worden into his inner circle and she has largely been left to run her own race in the electorate. Styles, or his high-profile wife Linda Fazldeen, are highly likely to run for the CLP against Worden next year. Both would make formidable opponents and the race will be a tight one.

Prediction: CLP GAIN

Kate Worden

Spillett

Elected Member: Lia Finocchiaro (CLP)

Margin: 13.1%

Lay of the land: Deputy Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro should have no trouble hanging on in Palmerston. She survived the 2016 CLP bloodbath by being the grey woman but being one in a team of two has meant she has had to put herself forward this term. Finocchiaro has grown well into the role and has become a formidable performer in Parliament and is well liked in her electorate.

Prediction: CLP HOLD

Lia Finocchiaro

Stuart

Elected Member: Scott McConnell (IND)

Margin: 25.4%

Lay of the land: Labor turned independent Scott McConnell says he wants to contest the urban Alice Springs seat of Braitling (where he has between buckley’s and none) which means Stuart is there for the taking by Labor. The bush seat voted strongly for Labor at the federal election which has buoyed spirits within the party.

Prediction: ALP GAIN

Scott McConnell

Wanguri

Elected Member: Nicole Manison (ALP)

Margin: 19.9%

Lay of the land: The Treasurer has had a tough time of it since Labor was thrust into power. She has been heavily criticised for allowing the Territory’s economy to suffer the way it has. There’s no doubt Manison is a great performer and well-liked by her constituents and while, like Fyles, she will suffer at the ballot box it won’t be enough to roll her. Many believe she is a future Chief Minister but that seems a long, long way away. If Gunner can’t hold onto power next year, you can bet your bottom dollar Manison and Fyles will be the two who lead Labor into the 2024 election.

Prediction: ALP HOLD

CURRENT STATUS: ALP 16 IND 7 CLP 2

Nicole Manison