‘Missing the big picture’: Defence experts rubbish Marles’ claims on Indonesia

Defence experts have cast doubt on the government’s claims that there are no plans for Russian air force jets to operate out of Indonesian bases, pointing to the two nations’ close ties.

Defence experts have cast doubt on the government’s claims that there are no plans for Russian air force jets to operate out of Indonesian bases, saying that the Albanese government was “missing the bigger picture” of what is happening between the two nations.

“The speed of the government’s denial tells me they don’t really know what’s going on,” said Peter Jennings, former head of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, of the government’s claims that there were no plans for Moscow to gain access to Indonesian air bases as reported by a leading defence industry publication.

“It’s not as though they’ve got complete visibility or anything like that in terms of Indonesia, and the strategic thinking of Russia is just a complete black box, so I think the haste with which they’ve come out to say there’s nothing to see here is itself puzzling and probably misleading.”

Russian security chief Sergei Shoigu has recently visited Indonesia, and Vladimir Putin has had multiple conversations with Indonesia’s president.

Saying that “where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” Jennings said that Indonesia and Russia have a long relationship dating back to the Cold War, and that recently there have been multiple meetings between the Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Jennings noted that Russian Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu visited Indonesia in February to discuss defence and security co-operation, adding that in 2017, the Russian Air Force sent two nuclear capable strategic bombers to visit the same air base in eastern Indonesia that was reportedly under discussion.

The ability for Russia to operate there “is mostly valuable because it complicates the American position in Guam, and so the Americans will be very conscious of what’s going on.”

Indonesia's newly sworn-in President Prabowo Subianto shakes hands with Australia's Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles.

Strategic Analysis Australia founder and director Michael Shoebridge added that “Defence Minister Marles is missing the big picture of what’s happening between Indonesia and Russia under new President Probowo by focusing on whether or not there might be a Russian ‘base’ for aircraft in Indonesia.”

“Marles’ cast iron assurances that nothing is happening hide the bigger problem … What we know is that Indonesia’s president Prabowo has spoken openly about wanting to grow the defence relationship between Jakarta and Moscow, and he’s put actions around his words to make this happen.”

“So, despite Mr Marles telling us that the security agreement he signed with Prabowo back in August last year was a historic deepening of the Australia-Indonesia defence relationship, Russia and Indonesia are getting closer and working together more,” he said.

Originally published as ‘Missing the big picture’: Defence experts rubbish Marles’ claims on Indonesia