Weather forecast: La Niña odds rise from 50% to 70%, a two in three chance

A greater chance of a La Niña means Territorians should brace for hotter (humid) nights and a wetter than average wet season. Read what’s in store for the build-up.

NORTHERN Australia is one step closer to knowing whether or not this wet season will be “wetter” than normal.

The Bureau of Meteorology announced on Tuesday that the chance of a La Niña wet season being declared rose from 50 to 70 per cent.

In simple terms, BoM senior meteorologist Billy Lynch said it was a two in three chance that the oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon would make another summer a sodden one.

“I should point out that’s three times greater than normal in any normal year,” Mr Lynch said.

Mr Lynch said the odds of a tropical cyclone would increase if a La Niña was declared but “every La Niña is a bit different” and the amount of rainfall depended on where the tropical lows sat on the weather map.

Darwin local Bridgette Vanderwolf on the look out for an early wet season Picture: Glenn Campbell

An example of this in recent history is the severe flooding on the east coast of Australia throughout the first five months of this year.

“Normally with a La Niña we would expect above average rainfall so last wet season did not go to script, I guess you could say,” he said.

“And the biggest reason for that was just the way the tropical lows formed mostly on the east coast.”

A typical Top End wet season scene. A man spectates mother nature and her power from the safety of the Nightcliff jetty. Picture: Glenn Campbell.

Although the odds are looking like it will be a wet summer, Mr Lynch warned that the call could not be made until at least October and no concrete predictions about the nature of the La Niña could be declared.

“What it might mean for us at this stage is it’s going to increase the chances of seeing a wetter than average build-up,” Mr Lynch said.

Rainfall always brings temporary respite to a humid day or night but Mr Lynch said regardless of the early rainfall, people should still be prepared for a hot and sticky build-up.

“We can’t say that the build-ups are not going to be terrible. It will still be terrible, but hopefully a little less terrible because there will be a better chance of getting one of those cooling afternoon thunderstorms,” he said.

Mr Lynch said if a La Niña was declared, it would increase the chances of an earlier monsoon season start date.

What Build-Up? Cold weather to hang around

TOP Enders can celebrate the continuation of the Dry with cooler morning conditions expected to continue this week.

Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) senior forecaster Moses Raico said the cool Monday morning starting the week of August 15 was due to a dry south-easterly surge, which pushed across the Top End.

It comes after days of growing heat and humidity across the Top End.

“We’re starting to see that drier air push right up into the northwestern parts of the Top End,” Mr Raico said.

“We are expecting severe fire danger ratings for the Darwin and Adelaide River area or even northern Daly district and that’s going to continue for the next couple of days.”

Mr Raico said this week’s cool change was not the last of the dry surges for the year with next weekend predicted to be on the cooler end of the thermometer, confirming the precious Dry was “absolutely not” over yet.

Avid fisherman Jim Simpson and carer Shalee Muller took advantage of the “perfect” weather conditions with a flick of the line at Stokes Hill Wharf on Monday.

Jim Simpson and his carer Shalee Muller enjoying the 'perfect' cool weather for fishing at Stokes Hill Wharf on Monday morning. Picture: Floss Adams.

“It’s been a bit humid these last few days but it actually feels really nice out here today,” Ms Muller said.

“It’s not as hot today so I thought why not, it’s perfect weather.”

The lowest minimum temperature this week for Alice Springs is 3C, Katherine 9C and Darwin 18C.