NT’s population decline won’t be as bad as federal budget forecast, says leading economist

THE extent of the Northern Territory’s population decline over the next three years won’t be as terrible as it’s chalked up to be in the recent federal budget, according to a leading Territory economist.

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THE extent of the Northern Territory’s population decline over the next three years won’t be as terrible as it’s chalked up to be in the recent federal budget, according to a leading Territory economist.

Airlie Asia director Ian Satchwell said he had a few issues with the way the federal budget had calculated their population projections.

The federal budget papers forecast the Territory’s population would fall from 241,000 in 2020 to 234,000 in 2023 — losing about 2000 each year.

But Mr Satchwell said these numbers did not appear to have taken a natural increase in population into account.

In 2019, natural increase added 2517 people to the NT’s population, contributing 1 per cent towards total population growth.

“If we add conservatively 2200 net natural increase per year, we get a population much bigger than their projection,” Mr Satchwell said.

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An aerial view of the Darwin CBD. Picture: Tourism NT

“However, the NT should still brace for a decline over coming years.

“It’s fair to say the Territory could lose about 1 per cent of its population in two years due to the collapse of inward overseas migration.

“We are highly dependent on overseas migrants for skills in the NT, with ongoing negative net interstate migration being a drain on skills.

“It’s safe to assume as well that the Territory’s pattern of interstate movement will continue as the coronavirus pandemic eases and people begin to move more freely.”

However, demographer Dr Liz Allen from the Australian National University said the projections in the federal budget were consistent with the population data on population trends produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

“The Northern Territory has experienced net losses of people moving from the Territory to other areas in Australia, very small increases from overseas migration, and natural increase which doesn’t offset the losses from internal migration,” she said.

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“The trouble for the NT will be to ensure that economic downturn doesn’t result in more than expected movements out of the Territory, leading to even more pronounced population decline.”

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