Special feature: How the Northern Territory’s population has fallen in the past two years
THE Northern Territory has suffered a population drain in the past two years. Here is an in-depth look at the government data in detail and the explanations behind the drop.
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THE Northern Territory has suffered a population drain in the past two years.
Here is a look at the Territory Government’s data in detail and the explanations behind the drop.
Key facts
The NT’s population is 244,761 people.
In 2019, the Territory’s population decreased by 0.4 per cent, mainly reflective of net interstate migration (down 3,994 people) detracting from population growth, with positive contributions from natural increase (up 2,517 people) and net overseas migration (up 535 people).
As at December quarter (original numbers)
Total population — Natural increase — Net overseas migration (NOM) — Net interstate migration (NIM)
2014 — 242,753— 660 — 28 — -879
2015 — 244,090— 623 — -262 — -626
2016 — 246,183 — 700 — -67 — -971
2017 — 246,858 — 621 — -210 — -1,118
2018— 245,703 — 530 — -363 — -1,414
2019 — 244,761 — 529 — -429 — -1,113
Population growth
Population growth is the sum of natural increase, net interstate migration and net overseas migration.
As at 31 December 2019, the NT’s estimated resident population was 244,761 people, a decrease of 0.4% (942 persons) from the previous year.
This is well below the national increase of 1.4% over the same period and the NT’s 20‑year annual average growth of 1.1%.
Variations in net interstate migration and net overseas migration highlight the volatility in mobility of the NT’s population, which is largely driven by movement of the non-Aboriginal population to and from the NT in response to changing employment opportunities.
Natural increase
Natural increase is the most stable of the three components of population change and has been the major driver of growth over the past 20 years.
In 2019, natural increase added 2,517 people to the NT’s population, contributing 1.0% towards total population growth. The impact of natural increase on total population growth is greater in the NT compared to the rest of Australia, which contributed 0.6% to growth over the same period.
However, the NT’s annual contribution rate has continued to trend down and is below the 20-year average of 1.3%.
This is largely driven by a softening in births contribution to population growth over the last 10 years, which partly reflects a fall in the number of women aged 15 to 49 years in the NT.
The proportionate impact of deaths on the NT’s population remained relatively unchanged over the same period.
Interstate migration
Net interstate migration is the most volatile of the three population components and typically detracts from population growth, with a loss of 3,994 people to other jurisdictions in 2019. Though this is a 5.3 per cent improvement from the previous year.
The flow of people that move to and from the NT typically averages between 15,000 and 17,000 people per annum, both arriving and departing.
This is largely concentrated within the non‑Aboriginal population, with most Aboriginal population movements limited to within the NT.
ABS also provide annual preliminary results of interstate migration movements.
The NT generally has a much higher churn of migrants moving in and out than any other jurisdiction.
“While the scheme targets high-needs areas, it fails to address the main problems the Territory faces attracting and retaining people to the NT,” she said.
“Inadequate social and physical infrastructure, poor perceptions and attitudes about living in the Territory, and the harsh climate make it extremely difficult for the government to bolster population.
“The NT government would do well to consider a more comprehensive approach to population by not only seeking to attract specific skills but make improvements to infrastructure failings and seek to improve the territory’s image problems.”
In 2018, the NT and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) reported a far higher turnover rate of total migration than other jurisdictions.
However, unlike the ACT, the NT was the only jurisdiction to report a net outflow of overseas and interstate migrants.
The NT’s total turnover of 41,870 persons was 17% of the total population. In contrast, Victoria’s total turnover of 403,950 persons was 6.3% of the total population. Had Victoria the same turnover rate as the NT, over a million people would have moved in and out of the state in one year.
Migration to and from the NT varies by sex and age group.
The largest cohorts moving in and out of the NT in a given year are those who are in their 20s and early 30s.
In 2018, the total number of arrivals to the NT increased slightly, up by 30 people to 14,140. Despite this increase, the number of arrivals to the NT was still well below the 20‑year annual average rate of 15,629 arrivals.
The small increase in arrivals was reasonably well spread, with the exception of 35‑49 year old males (down by 70 arrivals compared to the previous year) and 20‑34 year old females (down by 130 arrivals).
Both of these groups have reported three consecutive years of declining arrivals.
The number of departures from the NT increased by 5.8% (up 1,010) to 18,370 people in 2018, with increases observed across all age groups.
People aged 20-34 years was the largest contributor to the overall increase, with 6,740 (up 360) people departing the NT.
There was also a large increase in the number of departures for people aged 50-64 years, with 2,270 (up 260) people departing over the same period.
The increase in departures is reflective of the completion of the construction phase of the Ichthys LNG project and subsequent lower workforce requirements.
At a more detailed level of five-year age groups, the latest interstate migration data has shown the trends in migration have shifted slightly, with the largest increases in interstate departures amongst those aged 30-34 and 35-39, rather than concentrated among slightly younger age groups.
In June, Chief Minister Michael Gunner rejected claims that the Boundless Possible campaign had been a failure.
“I think now we’ve got the best argument we can make for anyone moving to the Northern Territory now — we’re the safest and best place in the country,” he said.
“I discussed population during the last national cabinet meeting as well and made the case the NT does need those policy decisions by the Australian Government.
“The Productivity Commission recognised that the zone tax rebate no longer works for the purpose it was intended, to get Australians to move north and stay there, so the Australian Government has more leavers in to pull in its place than we do.
“We will keep pushing the case that the Territory is where you need to be, we have got the jobs and are great place to live.”
Overseas migration
In 2019, net overseas migration added 535 people to the NT’s population, well below the 20‑year annual average of 1,430 persons.
ABS also provide annual preliminary results of international migration movements. In 2018, the decline in net overseas migration was largely driven by a decline in the number of arrivals into the NT.
The number of arrivals by 20-34 year olds declined by 660 to 2,820.This is partly reflective of a decline in the number of arrivals on higher education visas and temporary and permanent skilled work visas in the year.
Partly offsetting the decline in overseas arrivals to the NT was a fall in the number of overseas departures in 2018.
This partly reflected a return to a more normal level of departures of those aged 65 and over (to 130) in 2018 after an unusually large number of departures in that age group the previous year. There was also a decline in the number of departures aged 50-64 years and those aged 0-19 years.
In September 2019, the Commonwealth released an updated plan to better manage Australia’s future population.
Key changes to the plan include a reduction in the total number of migrants to Australia and incentives to direct a greater share of migrants to regional areas.
These changes have not yet been implemented, but could impact on the NT’s overseas migration rates in the future.
The “Territory and Me” survey — conducted by researchers at Charles Darwin University’s Northern Institute — polled more than 5000 current and former Territorians on their intentions to stay in or leave the jurisdiction and their reasons for doing so.
It found that between 70 per cent and 80 per cent of overseas-born Territorians across all age groups planned on still living in the Territory in two years’ time, compared with just over 50 per cent of Australian-born residents in the “early career” bracket.
“We might expect young overseas born adults to remain in the Territory to complete tertiary courses or satisfy visa conditions, but the differences between overseas and Australian-born residents are maintained into retirement,” the survey report reads.
“This suggests once overseas migrants settle in the Territory, their attachment to the Territory remains strong throughout their life course.”
The report’s authors found overseas migrants would be “important to growing the Territory’s population in the future” due to lower rates of both leaving and intending to leave across all life stages.
“The results also suggest that, if we can retain overseas-born Territorians for five years, their odds of leaving reduce further,” they wrote.
Regional population
Greater Darwin
In 2018-19:
Greater Darwin’s population has declined by 0.8%. This is the second consecutive decline, down by 0.4% in the year prior.
The decline was primarily concentrated in Darwin city (down 2.5%) and its surrounding suburbs (down 1.5%).
Palmerston (up by 1.2%) recorded the strongest result, however this is well below the 10-year average of 3.0%.
Greater Darwin’s population is likely to stabilise into 2019-20 following the completion of the Ichthys LNG project.
The labour force from this project continues to recalibrate following the transition from the construction to the operational phase.
Rest of the NT
In 2018-19:
Population growth in the Rest of NT remained unchanged.
Katherine (up 0.2%) and East Arnhem (up 0.1%) recorded the strongest results.
East Arnhem returned to positive growth in 2018-19 following five consecutive years of decline, largely due to the closure of the Gove alumina refinery and associated surrounding businesses.
The ERP in Alice Springs (down 0.1%) has remained relatively stable, increasing by 31 people since 2016-17.
Population growth in Barkly (down 0.3%) and Daly-Tiwi-West Arnhem (down 0.1%) have continued to decline in 2018-19, albeit slower than the five-year average rate of decline of 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.
ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION
Region
Alice Springs — 39,317
Barkly — 6091
Daly - Tiwi - West Arnhem — 17,872
East Arnhem — 14,525
Greater Darwin— 147,255
Katherine— 20869
Total — 245,929
Major townships
Alice Springs — 26,390
Darwin — 83,828
Katherine — 10,717
Nhulunbuy — 3274
Tennant Creek — 3253
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