New projections NT will have 350,000 people by 2046

THE Territory’s population could increase by a massive amount, by 2046, according to a new projection by the Department of Treasury and Finance, with one place alone set to grow by 21,000

The Department of Treasury and Finance says across all Territory regions, Palmerston is projected to grow the fastest at 2.4 per cent annually over 2016-36. Picture: Michael Franchi

THE Territory’s population could hit 350,000 by 2046, according to a new projection by the Department of Treasury and Finance, with Palmerston alone set to grow by 21,000.

The NT Government has released its 2019 Population Projections, which found the Territory was expected to have about an extra 106,000 people between 2016 and 2046.

The medium-growth projection would have the NT hit 351,607 in 2046 compared to 245,678 in 2016 — which equates to an annual average growth rate of 1.2 per cent.

Territory resident population, actual results and projections, 1996 to 2046 (at 30 June). Source: NT Department of Treasury and Finance

This is in contrast to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which shows the NT’s population declined last year, sitting at 245,854 in December 2018.

But the government’s new projections signal that the Territory will slowly begin to recover from this decline by 2021 with an annual average growth rate of 0.5 per cent.

Across all regions, Palmerston is projected to grow the fastest at 2.4 per cent annually and increase by more than 21,000 over 2016-2036 to hit about 57,000, compared to the Darwin suburbs where the annual growth will crawl at only 0.4 per cent and the population increase by 5215 over the same period. From 2016 to 2036, population numbers are expected to increase by about 10,000 in Darwin city, 4000 in Alice Springs, 3000 in Katherine and 1000 in East Arnhem.

The Barkly is the only region projected to go into decline and lose about 300 people over the same time — but the new solar farm plan might have something to say about that. The Department of Treasury and Finance’s projections also show the Aboriginal population is ageing faster, with the proportion of Aboriginal people over the age of 65 set to almost triple, jumping from 3.6 per cent in 2016 to 9.1 per cent in 2046.

Over the same time period, the proportion of non-Aboriginal persons aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 8.3 per cent to 11.4 per cent.

The projections report said this trend was a result of the model assumptions of a greater increase in life expectancy of Aboriginal persons and a greater number of non-Aboriginal seniors over 65 choosing to leave the Territory.

Overall the NT’s Aboriginal population growth is projected to remain relatively constant over 2016-21 at an annual rate of about 1.1 per cent, compared to 0.1 per cent for the non-Aboriginal population.