Chances of La Nina in 2020 now at 70 per cent, Bureau of Meteorology says

THE Bureau of Meteorology has warned the chances of an earlier, wetter wet season is three times more likely than normal

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THE chances of an earlier, wetter wet season peppered with tropical cyclones is three times more likely than normal, the Bureau of Meteorology has warned.

The BOM on Tuesday confirmed the chances of a “La Nina” developing this year is now at 70 per cent, roughly three times the normal likelihood.

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La Nina basically means, for Australia, an increased risk of rainfall — particularly in central, eastern and northern parts of the country.

BOM’s climate operations manager Dr Andrew Watkins said a La Nina typically brings cooler and cloudier days, more tropical cyclones, and an earlier onset of the first rains of the wet season across the North.

“Climate models suggest that further ocean cooling and intensification of Trade Winds may occur over the coming months, which has triggered the Bureau to shift from a La Niña Watch to a La Niña Alert,” he said.

The last significant La Niña event was in 2010-11, which was the Australia’s wettest two-year period on record beating the previous record from the La Niña years of 1973-74.

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Several notable tropical cyclones occurred the La Nina summers of 2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 2012, including Tropical Cyclone Carlos – which brought so much rain it set the record for Darwin’s wettest ever month and caused the evacuation of 300 people from Nauiyu to Batchelor due to major flooding in the Daly River.

Another notable cyclones were Tropical Cyclone Grant, which formed over the Arafura Sea, and Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi.

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