New survey shows key group turning on Scott Morrison

Scott Morrison faces an uphill battle to be re-elected. And one key group turning on him could be what finishes the Prime Minister off.

Fears the women’s vote would turn against the Coalition this election appears to be playing out in shock new survey results.

The latest figures from news.com.au’s State of the Nation online survey shows support for Labor is growing and the women’s vote may help hand Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese the keys to The Lodge.

In a significant reversal, just 22 per cent of women aged over 18 said they intended to vote for the Coalition, compared to 31 per cent for Labor.

This compares with results ahead of the 2019 election when the vote was more evenly split — 25 per cent of women said they would support the Coalition, and 27 per cent backed Labor.

The Coalition’s large advantage among men also seems to have narrowed, with 30 per cent now backing the Coalition (down from 35 per cent in 2019) and 28 per cent supporting Labor (compared to 26 per cent previously).

The results come as Prime Minister Scott Morrison criticism from former Australian of the Year Grace Tame that she had been asked not to say anything negative about the PM.

A separate YouGov survey of more than 1000 young women aged 18 to 24 years old commissioned by Plan International Australia, found 60 per cent didn’t feel parliament had become more safe or equal in the last 12 months ­– despite multiple reviews into the toxic culture of Parliament and promises to fix things.

In total there were 13,277 responses to the news.com.au survey from readers aged over 18 on the question of who they intended to vote for. The survey was conducted between March 7 and April 14.

Around 29 per cent said they would vote for Labor, and 26 per cent supported the Coalition. Around 19 per cent were undecided.

Responses from the 9015 adults who completed the survey prior to March 30 (before the election campaign or release of the federal budget) varied to the 4202 adults who did the survey in the two weeks after this date.

Prior to March 30, 28 per cent said they intended to vote for Labor, and this rose to 30 per cent after that date. The Coalition’s vote also rose from 26 per cent, to 28 per cent.

Support for The Greens dropped slightly from 7 per cent, to 6 per cent, as did support for the United Australia Party (from 5 per cent to 4 per cent) and the Liberal Democratic Party, which fell from 3 per cent to 2 per cent.

Support for One Nation remained steady on 5 per cent.

Across both survey periods, the Animal Justice Party, Jacqui Lambie Network, as well as the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, all recorded 1 per cent support each. Around 19 per cent said they would vote for “other” parties than those listed.

Albo is preferred prime minister

Overall, Anthony Albanese was rated by 52 per cent of respondents as the preferred prime minister, compared to Scott Morrison on 48 per cent.

However, Mr Albanese had a higher rate of “neutral” responses when it came to people rating his performance as opposition leader, with 33 per cent providing this assessment, compared to 25 per cent who approved and 40 per cent who disapproved.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison had a much higher number of people (54 per cent) who disapproved of his performance as PM, while 16 per cent were neutral and 29 per cent approved.

Negative sentiment was particularly strong for Mr Morrison, with around 36 per cent “strongly disapproving” of his performance.

Anthony Albanese (right) was the preferred prime minister for news.com.au readers.

Young Aussies back Labor

Young people were also more inclined to vote for Labor, with support among the age groups 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44, ranging from 28 per cent to 32 per cent.

This compares with the Coalition’s vote, which ranged between 19 per cent and 21 per cent among these same groups.

However, the Coalition’s vote was higher among those aged over 55s, with 36 per cent supporting it, compared to 29 per cent for Labor.

The vote was evenly split among those aged 45-54 on 26 per cent each.

Support split among states

Labor also enjoyed higher support in the states of Victoria (30 per cent compared to 23 per cent), Western Australia (29 per cent versus 24 per cent), South Australia (29 per cent compared to 25 per cent for the Coalition), and Australian Capital Territory (33 per cent to 25 per cent).

It had a slight advantage in New South Wales (30 per cent compared to 29 per cent).

The Coalition’s vote was higher in Tasmania (26 per cent compared to 23 per cent for Labor) and Northern Territory (37 per cent compared 17 per cent). However, there were only 109 responses from NT, and 255 from Tasmania so this may not accurately reflect the population.

The Coalition also enjoyed higher support in Queensland (29 per cent compared to 27 per cent).

The results come as the latest Newspoll showed Labor has maintained a two-party-preferred vote lead of 53-47, and a Resolve Strategic poll for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age indicated Labor held a clear lead of 54 to 46 per cent over the Coalition in two-party terms.

Originally published as New survey shows key group turning on Scott Morrison