Live results in the key seats that will decide election

Today’s federal election could come down to the wire between Labor and the Coalition. Here are live results in the key seats.

Saturday’s ballot looks like it could be a close contest with dozens of seats potentially in play.

Labor needs to secure an extra seven electorates (and keep the ones it already has) in order to form government with a majority of 76 seats.

Labor polling shows it is on track to secure victory and a basket of up to 20 marginal seats will decide the election.

The five seats it is reportedly most confident about winning are Pearce, Swan, Boothby, Chisholm and Reid.

Meanwhile the Coalition has been targeting the Labor-held seats of Gilmore, Corangamite, McEwen, Hunter, Parramatta, Lyons and Lingiari. It’s also expected to reclaim the seat of Hughes from former Liberal turned United Australia Party leader Craig Kelly.

But the so-called teal independents could provide a curve-ball with polling showing candidates in Goldstein, Kooyong and Wentworth have a real chance at booting out sitting Liberal MPs including Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

There are also many more seats, particularly in New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania, that could throw up surprise results.

Follow live results for the key seats:

Here are 18 seats that could decide the election results.

Pearce, WA

The retirement of former attorney-general Christian Porter has created an opportunity for Labor’s Tracey Roberts, the Wanneroo mayor, to snatch the seat away from the Liberal party, who has nominated candidate Linda Aitken, a Wanneroo councillor and clinical nurse specialist, as his replacement.

While Pearce is held on a two-party preferred margin of 7.52 per cent, Labor could pick up the seat according to a YouGov poll, The West Australian reported.

Interestingly, Defence Minister Peter Dutton predicted in March that if the Coalition held on to Pearce, they would win the election.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese pictured with Pearce candidate Tracey Roberts in Wanneroo, Perth. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

Swan, WA

Held with a small margin of just 2.69 per cent, the Liberals will face a tough battle to keep the seat of Swan after the retirement of Steve Irons.

Business owner Kristy McSweeney is Mr Iron’s successor and is facing off against Labor’s candidate, engineer Zaneta Mascarenhas.

Boothby, SA

Labor is hoping the “honeymoon” effect of popular new state Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas will get it across the line in Boothby, which is held on a slim margin of 1.38 per cent.

Health care executive Rachel Swift is running for the Liberals after the retirement of Nicolle Flint. Polling has shown Labor’s Louise Miller-Frost has a good chance of securing the seat.

Chisholm, Victoria

The Chinese Australian vote will likely play a crucial role in Chisholm, which is held by Liberal MP Gladys Liu on an ultra-thin margin of 0.57 per cent.

It won’t be easy for union official Carina Garland though, she’s listed last — at number 12 — on the ballot paper.

PM Scott Morrison with Chisholm MP Gladys Liu. Picture: Jason Edwards

Reid, NSW

This western Sydney seat is looking like a close contest, with Liberal Fiona Martin facing a strong challenge from Labor’s Sally Sitou, especially after Ms Martin appeared to confuse Ms Sitou with another Asian-Australian.

The diverse seat is held on a margin of 3.18 per cent.

Gilmore, NSW

After gaining national attention amid the Black Summer bushfires, popular state Liberal Andrew Constance, made the jump to federal politics but the polling does not look good for him.

It seems Mr Constance’s popularity may not be enough to overcome disdain for Scott Morrison.

The seat is held by Labor’s Fiona Phillips on a 2.61 per cent margin.

Corangamite, Victoria

Liberal candidate Stephanie Asher, who is also the mayor of Geelong, is hoping to pick up the seat of Corangamite from Labor’s Libby Coker.

The seat is held on a small margin of 1.07 per cent.

McEwen, Victoria

The Liberals were hopeful of winning McEwen after the area was hard-hit by Covid lockdowns but its candidate Richard Welch has been mired in controversy over whether he actually lives in the area.

Labor’s Rob Mitchell currently holds the seat on a 5.02 per cent margin.

Hunter, NSW

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has made several visits to the Labor-held seat of Hunter, where Joel Fitzgibbon is retiring after more than 20 years as the Labor MP.

Discontent over mining and emissions reduction policies have chipped away at Labor’s vote in the traditionally blue-collar electorate, which is currently held on a 2.98 per cent margin.

On Saturday, National Party candidate James Thomson is hoping to snatch the seat from Labor's Dan Repacholi.

Parramatta, NSW

Former economic adviser to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Andrew Charlton, is facing a battle to hang on to the seat Labor has held for 20 years.

Retiring MP Julie Owens had a buffer of 3.5 per cent but Mr Charlton, who stumbled early in the campaign after he failed to name three Parramatta restaurants, is facing a challenge from small business owner Maria Kovacic.

Neither candidate will be casting their vote in the electorate, although Ms Kovacic did grow up in the area. The Liberals believe the seat is up for grabs.

Lyons, Tasmania

Tassie seats helped get Scott Morrison across the line in 2019 and the Liberals are hoping to add another electorate to their collection this year.

Labor’s Brian Mitchell holds Lyons on a margin of 5.18 per cent with the Liberals’ Susie Bower hoping to give him a run for his money.

Lingiari, NT

The retirement of Labor’s Warren Snowdon, who has held the seat since it was created in 2001, has raised hopes it’s up for grabs.

Mr Snowdon’s replacement, Marion Scrymgour, a former state arts and environment minister, is facing competition from a number of candidates including the Country Liberal Party’s Damien Ryan, who has been the Alice Springs mayor for 13 years.

The seat is currently held on a margin of 5.46 per cent.

Eden-Monaro, NSW

Polling shows Labor’s Kristy McBain is in trouble in the seat of Eden-Monaro in the south of NSW, with the pollsters predicting Dr Jerry Nockles could pick up the seat for the Liberals.

The uComm poll suggests it’s neck and neck in the electorate, with sitting member Ms McBain behind 49:51 on a two party preferred basis.

Page, NSW

This northern NSW seat takes in the recently flood-devastated city of Lismore and is currently held by Nationals MP Kevin Hogan.

Labor candidate Patrick Deegan is hopeful of picking up the seat, with polling showing a close contest, although the sitting MP appears to be ahead 51:49.

Ryan, Qld

Labor’s Peter Cossar is poised to win the seat in Greater Brisbane, with polling suggesting he will romp it home on a two party preferred result of 55:45.

Mr Cossar lost to Liberals’ Julian Simmonds by 11,620 votes in 2019 but hopes the ballots turn in his favour this year.

Goldstein, Victoria

Polls suggest voters in the inner city Melbourne seat (previously known as Balaclava) could turf out Liberal MP Tim Wilson, who has held the seat since 2016.

Last election Mr Wilson was able to defend the fairly safe seat against Labor by a reasonable margin, winning the two-candidate vote by 15,480 votes.

But former ABC reporter Zoe Daniel, one of the teal independents being backed by Climate 200, is increasingly favoured to win.

Kooyong, Victoria

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is in trouble in his blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong, with a YouGov survey commissioned by showing “teal” independent Monique Ryan has a real chance of hobbling the Liberal MP’s ambitions.

Wentworth, NSW

Liberal MP Dave Sharma won the seat by just 2346 votes and polling suggests he could be in trouble on Saturday.

His glamorous rival Allegra Spender is the daughter of fashion designer Carla Zampatti and is one of the so-called “teal independents” backed by Climate 200.

Some polling has tipped Ms Spender, who has painted Mr Sharma as “too weak to stand up to Scott Morrison”, to win the seat.

Originally published as Live results in the key seats that will decide election