Election 2022: Polling shows Coalition face election defeat with loss of high profile Liberal seat to independents

Scott Morrison is staring down the prospect of electoral defeat startling new polling shows with one politician dragging down the whole Coalition.

EXCLUSIVE

Scott Morrison is staring down the prospect of election defeat and the loss of the blue-ribbon seat of Goldstein in Victoria to independent Zoe Daniel.

That’s the grim message for the Coalition in new polls that also suggests Liberal voters in inner city seats believe that Barnaby Joyce wields too much influence on climate change policy.

As Treasurer Josh Frydenberg fights for survival in the seat of Kooyong in Victoria, the fate of the moderate faction hangs in the balance with seats tipped to topple to cashed-up climate change independents.

If Goldstein falls to an independent it will be the first time the Liberal Party has not held the seat, or its predecessor Balaclava, since 1901.

The uComms poll of 831 Goldstein residents predicts that former ABC journalist Zoe Daniels will defeat Liberal MP Tim Wilson on May 21.

Scott Morrison has promised to change the way he runs the country. Picture: Jason Edwards

Blue ribbon seat lost to independents

A who’s who of powerful and influential Victorian Liberals have held the seat including Ian Macphee, former Education Minister David Kemp, Andrew Robb and now Tim Wilson.

Mr Wilson, who has campaigned for gay marriage since his election in 2016, has lashed the “teal” independents for only targeting progressive Liberals.

“There’s an unholy alliance of the left forces and their candidates wearing teal masks coming up,’’ he said.

“The Liberal Party is at its best when it’s taking the whole of the nation forward together, representing the cities, the suburbs and rural and regional Australia. What it means is that the cities will be dealing themselves out of a voice in government.”

Commissioned by GetUp! the new poll also claims that Goldstein voters expressed concern that Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce wielded too much influence over the Morrison Government’s climate policy.

– 70.1 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement: “Action on climate change is important for me in deciding how to vote this election,” including 50.4 per cent of respondents who strongly agreed.

– 63.2 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement: “Barnaby Joyce has too much influence over Australia’s climate policy”, including 48.3 per cent of respondents who strongly agreed.

– 68 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement: “The Australian Government should prioritise quickly scaling up clean, renewable energy, and end public subsidies for coal, oil and gas corporations”. Only 26.7 per cent of respondents disagreed.

– 62.4 per cent of respondents opposed new methane gas fracking projects in the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin. Only 25.8 per cent of respondents expressed support.

– 59.7 per cent of respondents disagreed with the statement: “Tim Wilson, Scott Morrison and the Liberal-National Coalition have a plan to take strong action on climate change.” 40.9 per cent of respondents strongly disagreed.

Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is losing the Coalition inner city votes. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Andrew Taylor

Barnaby a ‘huge turn off’

GetUp Climate Justice Campaign Director Kathryn McCallum said the message from voters was clear.

“The results are in: Barnaby Joyce is a huge turn-off for voters in Goldstein,’’ she said.

“When rogue Nationals proclaim ‘net zero is dead’ and the distant 2050 target has ‘wiggle room’, it’s no wonder Goldstein voters are suspicious.

“Goldstein voters care deeply about climate change, and badly want a parliament that steps up and takes real action – but they don’t have faith in the Morrison Government, or Tim Wilson, to do it.”

Independent candidate for Goldstein Zoe Daniel. Picture: NCA NewsWire /Brendan Beckett

An exclusive Newspoll conducted ahead of Scott Morrison’s campaign launch on Sunday confirms Labor is maintaining a two-party-preferred lead of 54 to 46.

The Coalition’s primary vote is a low 35 per cent. However, Labor’s is only 38 per cent.

Scott Morrison has promised to change the way he runs the country as fears mount within the Coalition of a Labor victory.

Speaking ahead of the campaign launch in Brisbane on Sunday, the Prime Minister said if re-elected he would listen to voter concerns.

“It’s very important to be listening to Australians and I’ve done that all across my political career,” he said.

“And you know, over the last three years … what Australians have needed from me, going through this pandemic, has been strength and resilience.

“Now, I admit, that hasn’t ­enabled Australians to see a lot of other gears in the way I work. And I know Australians know that I can be a bit of a bulldozer when it comes to issues.

“As we go into this next period on the other side of this election, I know there are things that are going to have to change with the way I do things, because we’re moving into a different time.”

A GetUp survey of 831 residents of Goldstein.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese vowed to be a “builder, not a bulldozer”, as he announced a $1 billion injection to Medicare on Saturday to boost GP practices.

“A bulldozer knocks things over. I’m a builder, that’s what I am. And if I’m elected prime minister, I’ll build things in this country,” Mr Albanese said.

“I find it quite extraordinary that this government have been there for almost a decade, this Prime Minister has four years in office and what he’s saying is ‘if you vote for Scott Morrison, I’ll change’. That’s what he’s saying: ‘Vote for me, and I’ll change’. If you want change, change the government.”