Treasurer Josh Frydenberg set to lose Kooyong seat: poll

Josh Frydenberg is facing the very likely prospect of losing his seat leaving the man touted as a possible future PM out of politics.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is fighting for his political life and could lose the blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong in Melbourne to an Independent in a shock result that has big implications for the future of the Liberal Party.

The heir apparent if Scott Morrison loses the election – a likely prospect according to recent opinion polls – risks being turfed out of politics.

That would leave the way clear for Peter Dutton to take over the Liberal leadership after he tried and failed in 2018, unless the Treasurer can stage a fightback.

Josh Frydenberg visits the pre-polling booth in Hawthorn, Melbourne, with former Premier of Victoria Ted Baillieu. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Nicki Connolly

According to a new YouGov poll commissioned by News Corp, Mr Frydenberg is trailing Independent candidate Monique Ryan by 53-47 on a two-party-preferred basis.

The numbers are based on a YouGov survey of 18,923 voters nationwide between April 14 and May 7.

The poll suggests the primary vote for Mr Frydenberg has fallen to 38 per cent and 28 per cent for Dr Ryan, with Labor polling 20 per cent and the Greens on 11 per cent.

However, when Labor’s preferences are distributed that leaves Dr Ryan in poll position to win the seat.

But predictions of a dramatic sweep of ‘teal’ independents is overblown with the pollsters predicting just two new independents are set to join the crossbench.

Both are in Victoria but the potential loss of Kooyong and the end of Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat could have massive implications for the future direction of the Liberal Party.

Mr Frydenberg’s seat is regarded as the jewel in the Victorian Liberal crown and was formerly held by Sir Robert Menzies.

Candidate for Kooyong Monique Ryan could beat Josh Frydenberg. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw

Victorian Liberal Tim Wilson is the other electorate that could fall to independent Zoe Daniel according to the poll in the bayside electorate of Goldstein.

Billed as the most comprehensive poll conducted in Australia measuring voter intention across every seat in the country, the poll predicts there is some good news for the Coalition.

It predicts the Liberals will retain the three inner-city Sydney seats of Wentworth, North Sydney and McKellar, which are also under threat from high profile independents.

There are currently four independents – Zali Steggall who holds the seat of Warringah, Helen Haines, Andrew Wilkie and Rebekha Sharkie.

Ms Stegall is fighting off a challenge from Liberal Katherine Deves who made the 6pm news again this week after suggesting that calling trans teenagers “surgically mutilated” was the correct terminology.

Asked if he stood by her, the Prime Minister said “Yes, I do.”

The YouGov poll suggests however that the four independents are likely to be re-elected.

United Australia Party MP Craig Kelly is expected to lose his seat which means the net gain to the crossbench would only be one seat.

The Greens leader Adam Bandt is expected to retain his Victorian seat and Queenslander Bob Katter is expected to be returned, taking the crossbench to eight MPs.

Liberal MP Dave Sharma looks set to fend off Independent Allegra Spender scoring 56-44 on a two-party-preferred basis in the seat of Wentworth.

Moderate Liberal Trent Zimmerman is also predicted to hold on in the seat of North Sydney, where YouGov predicts Kylea Tink is behind 53-47.

In the neighbouring seat of McKellar, Liberal MP Jason Falinski faces a swing but will also hang on, according to the poll at least.