Where is the cyclone expected to form in Coral Sea

An unprecedented out-of-season cyclone is a ‘high’ chance of forming in the Coral Sea early next week, according to the national forecaster.

An unprecedented out-of-season cyclone is a “high” chance of forming in the Coral Sea early next week, according to the national forecaster.

All forecast models show increased storm activity from Sunday in an area of the Coral Sea 600km north of Vanuatu.

Heading into Monday a trademark circular wind formation increases in intensity.

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts a 55 per cent chance of a tropical low forming on Monday morning east of the Solomon Islands within Fiji’s area of responsibility.

The low is likely to move towards the southwest during the weekend, possibly into the northeast Coral Sea on Tuesday when at 10pm the storm has a 75 per cent chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity.

Winds reaching 120km/h have been predicted over the tiny island of Nendo.

The system is forecast to remain a long way from the Queensland coast and no direct impacts are expected.

In 50 years of Bureau records a cyclone in October has never before formed in Australian waters of the Coral Sea.

The Coral Sea cyclone season typically runs from November to April, and peaks during February and March off the Queensland coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting that an out-of-season cyclone will form in the Coral Sea next week. Picture: Windy TV

Though without precedent in Australian waters, Bureau meteorologist Kimba Wong said it was not so unusual for October cyclones to form within Fiji waters.

“Quite a lot of models are saying it will develop next week,” she said.

“It would be interesting because we have not had a tropical cyclone form in October since records began in the 1970s.

“But there have been a number of tropical cyclones in October within Fiji’s area of responsibility.”

A storm off the Far North Queensland coast has a "remarkable" chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. Picture: Tropical Cyclones Worldwide

Ms Wong said it was all hands on deck at the Bureau office to produce up to date information on the developing storm.

“We are actively monitoring it and we work very closely with Fiji and we are in close contact with them in terms of (future) track maps,” she said.

🌀#Vanuatu may have the first Tropical Cyclone of the season next week. This is next Wednesday, 6 days from now. It's starting to look more likely to form - but precise tracking definitely not locked in.

⚠️Current Risk:
Vanuatu: Moderate
Fiji: Low
NZ: None

Map: Weatherzone pic.twitter.com/EWIPMlSnT5

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) October 18, 2023

“There is strong interest from meteorologists and it would be a bit of an anomaly to see it in October.

“We increased our operations to look at that system, which has happened already, the number of staff on shift has increased and we have dedicated staff on to issue the seven day forecast.”

If the storm develops into a cyclone off the coast of the Solomon Islands the Fiji Meteorological Service will name the cyclone Lola but if the system forms in Australian waters it will be named Tropical Cyclone Jasper.

“It’s more likely that Fiji will have naming rights,” Ms Wong said.

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Originally published as Where is the cyclone expected to form in Coral Sea