Tropical Cyclone Jasper expected to impact NT at Christmas time

Experts remain uncertain what Cyclone Jasper will do once it hits the Gulf of Carpentaria. Read what could happen.

It could be several days before it becomes clear whether Tropical Cyclone Jasper will impact the Northern Territory.

The Category 2 cyclone, currently hovering around the north Queensland coast near Port Douglas, could take a number of directions in coming days according to Sky Weather meteorologist Rob Clarke.

Jasper is expected to lose strength as it moves across the Queensland mainland into the Gulf of Carpentaria late Friday or on Saturday, and there is potential for the system to reform into a tropical low when it hits the gulf.

Sky News Meteorologist Rob Sharpe

Mr Sharpe said the two main options once Jasper hits the gulf is for it to park there or to continue west.

He said the Gulf of Carpentaria is “one of the trickiest” regions to forecast because it’s rarely influenced by other events.

“After Jasper hits the gulf, there’s a lot more uncertainty about what it’s going to do,” Mr Sharpe said.

“Most forecast models have it heading across the NT Top End next week, so rain potential in Darwin increases dramatically. We’ll have to wait and see how intense it gets.

“Otherwise, it could hang around the gulf for a couple of days, but it’s more likely it will head across into the Top End. If it moved into the Top End or just north it could really increase rainfall in and around Darwin in a significant way.

A large high tide and strong winds combined with the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Jasper in Far North Queensland to flood Williams Esplanade at Palm Cove, Cairns. Picture: Bronwyn Farr

“The heaviest rain at this stage will most likely hang around the northern Top End coast.

“If it stays in the gulf, there’s potential for showers and thunderstorms but not the consistent rain you would get if it moves across the Top End.

“No matter where it goes it’s looking quite wet. In Darwin the shower and storm potential will increase and we could to see extra rain if the system moves across the Top End.

“Whatever, this system will stay in the tropics until Christmas and the remnants of Jasper will remain around the tropics until Christmas.”

Weather website windy.com, which has four potential forecast models, is forecasting rainfall of more than 500mm if Jasper tracks over the Top End in the coming 10 days.

The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting downpours of up to 40mm on Monday and Tuesday.