New population target set above national growth rate

The Territory Government has flagged new population targets after questions were raised about the old ones. Read what happened.

Before he was elected MLA for Fong Lim last year, Dr Tanzil Rahman was Investment Territory’s executive director of Human Capital, in charge of trying to grow the NT’s population.

Early in his time in the job, Dr Rahman phoned the NT News to ask about the origins of the media’s reporting of the previous government’s nominal 300,000 population target by 2030.

The call was basically an update pointing out no such population strategy actually existed on the NT Government’s books.

The reason for the misunderstanding remains unclear to this day. Was it a misinterpretation by media, or a misspeak by a government minister? The fact was, he said, the 300,000 population target did not exist.

Tanzil Rahman in the Northern Territory Parliament, will be able to contribute to his party’s push to drive up population growth beyond the national average.. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

Now on the backbench of the CLP Government, Dr Rahman will be able to contribute to his party’s push to drive population growth beyond the national average.

Rebuilding the Economy, the NT Government’s first-term economic strategy, commits to growing “consistently faster than Australia”.

“A larger economy and population will increase scale, driving cost reductions, enhanced services, and improved labour flexibility, while reducing reliance on the Australian Government,” it said.

What does success look like? “The NT population increases by at least 4000 persons per annum including net migration of at least 1300 persons per annum.”

The challenge is great, given there has been more than 15 years of population drain as measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ net interstate migration data.

According to the NT Government, in the 2024 December quarter alone, the Territory experienced a net loss of 554 people due to interstate migration.

Demographer Mark McCrindle from McCrindles

Demographer Mark McCrindle said the challenge for all governments was to deliver infrastructure projects that drew in population.

“The federal and Territory governments both recognise the Top End and Darwin in particular needs to have infrastructure to attract and retain population,” Mr McCrindle said.

“There’s more focus on that now and the extent to which infrastructure like sporting stadiums attract people to the town.

“What a city needs to thrive is a critical mass and a stable demographic, and indeed a diverse one.

“ If an area purely has young workers, young singles even young couples and if there’s a lot more renters than owners and if we don’t have those services from early childhood to providing really choice schools, then we’re not going to retain people in the family years.

“Most people will decide to earn some dollars here, then start the family elsewhere.

“The volatility of population has always been one of the challenges facing the Northern Territory.”