Population probe shows Territorians don’t feel safe

A new study has identified a key NT population target – and why it will take so long to reach it. Read the findings.

A new snapshot has painted a complex picture of population shifts in the Northern Territory, assessed the impact of crime and highlighted the economic risks of declining population growth.

Regional Development Australia’s NT social and economic update forecasts it will be at least another 20 years before the Territory’s population cracks 300,000.

Sitting at 252,529 when the data was collected at the end of financial year 2023, this was an increase of 2301 on the previous year’s figure. The report forecast the Territory’s population would hit 302,600 in 2046.

The report probed declining net interstate migration and a surge of retired Territorians leaving for Queensland.

Mining is massive in the Northern Territory.

“Net interstate migration used to hold slightly, however has been beginning to show signs of slowing,” the report outlined.

It assumed losses of about 1800 Territorians a year “looking at the age groups of migration, that’s retirees to Queensland”.

International migration to the Territory slowed during the last decade, but post-pandemic it has been increasing by 2000 people a year.

Despite getting older, the Territory remains the country’s youngest jurisdiction, with a higher proportion of Territorians from birth to 54 years compared to elsewhere in Australia.

The older we get, the smaller the population percentage compared nationally.

While two per cent of Australia’s population are aged 85 years and over, in the NT the figure is fewer than 0.3 per cent.

The report showed a decline in gross state product between 2022 and 2023 from $31.792bn to $30,123bn, the sharpest fall since 2001.

On the upside, the Territory’s GSP has doubled since 2001 when it was $15.727bn.

Nurses across the Territory are in big demand.

The Territory was the nation’s only jurisdiction to record negative GSP growth in 2023.

Regionally speaking Big Rivers including Katherine, Roper Gulf and the Vic-Daly was the NT’s best performing region since 2001 followed by Greater Darwin and Central Australia.

All three regions had suffered a decline in GSP in the 12 months to June 2023.

Mining is by far the Territory’s most profitable industry contributing 31 per cent of value added profit compared to public administration and safety with 12 per cent and health care and social services at nine per cent.

Nurses are the NT’s most sought-after profession, followed by legal and welfare professionals, occupational therapists and construction managers.

The report showed the importance of housing in reflecting economic growth.

Residential and non-residential building approvals are at their lowest level since the NT economic recession of the early 2000s.

Territorians feel less safe than elsewhere in Australia.

About 48 per cent of investment in the NT is from the public sector, with Queensland the next highest nationally with 22 per cent public sector investment.

The report showed domestic visitor numbers to the Territory plummeted from 1.7m in 2019 to 1.4m in 2023, primarily due to Covid-19.

During the same period international visitors dropped from 299,000 to 191,000.

The report said Covid jacked-up the cost of domestic and holiday accommodation in Darwin by 40 per cent, more than anywhere else in Australia.

The data showed a Territorian is more likely to commit a crime than anyone else in Australia, with offences per 10,000 population about 530, compared to next-highest Queensland with 280.

Only 28 per cent of Darwin residents say they feel safe compared to 67 per cent nationally while 31 per cent of regional Territorians feel safe compared to 67 per cent nationally.

Asked to describe how safe they feel on a scale of one-to-10, Darwin residents averaged just 2.8 and Alice Springs residents 1.8.

Litchfield residents were the NT’s safest rating 3.3 out of 10.

In greater Bendigo the figure was 7.4 out of 10.