Major projects don’t guarantee population growth: CDU demographer Andrew Taylor

Major projects don’t guarantee population growth. CDU demographer Andrew Taylor discloses how to get people to the NT and keep them here.

Major projects are not an automatic pathway to population growth, according to a Charles Darwin University (CDU) demographer.

Associate Professor Andrew Taylor said governments must plan to maximise the benefits of major projects to offset some of the negatives that could result from a surge in economic activity.

While major projects generate short and long-term jobs and billions in investment dollars, they can also bring potential downsides if they’re not properly managed.

Professor Taylor, a demographer with the Northern Institute at CDU, said the question about the population impacts of major projects was “complex”.

Demographer Andrew Taylor.

“Major projects are an important part of the economic mix for a place like the Territory,” he said.

“They generate jobs, investment and possibly population growth. Ensuring jobs go to locals is the critical pathway to maximising economic and social dividends.”

Prof Tayor said as well as the economic impact, major projects could deliver important legacies, such as the worker accommodation facility at Howard Springs or the CDU oil and gas research centre bequeathed to the Territory by Inpex.

Prof Taylor said research showed there may be mixed impacts from major projects on population growth.

“There is the potential boom and bust cycle common to resource-based projects in particular,” he said.

Population: Northern Territory net interstate migration

“Some literature suggests places can become ‘locked-in’ economically and demographically to major projects and that this constrains their opportunities to grow in other ways, both economically and demographically.

“Large projects in relatively small places like Darwin can also push up prices for housing, goods and services and create negative amenity effects for individuals who may not like the environmental, visual or social effects from the construction of a large project.”

Prof Taylor said large projects tended to attract an influx of young men into a community for the construction phase, which may contribute to decisions about staying or leaving for existing residents.

He said to leverage the most out of major projects, long-term legacy projects with “demonstrable local positive effects” for the community could be preferenced to extend the benefits from the project once economic benefits subside.

Outside of major projects, CDU has conducted a number of population studies in recent years aiming to better understand the drivers for migration to the Territory.

The 2019 Territory and Me Survey showed that the desire for people who have migrated to the Territory to leave drops off substantially after two years and even further after five.

“While some people will always view the Territory as a short-term part of their life plans, if some who might otherwise have left can be convinced to stay the effects become obvious,” Prof Taylor said.

Key pull factors retaining people in the Territory are the natural environment, culture and multi-cultural richness and access to employment.

Conversely, people are more likely to leave after the birth of a child, although sometimes childbirth can attract family members to migrate to the Territory.

The key determinant of Territory population growth is net interstate migration, which has recorded a negative figure in the Territory since 2008.

Fourteen years of net-immigration shortfalls can be addressed by targeting overseas migration.

Population: Northern Territory-Australia 40-year population figures

“The Territory has attracted and has seen large growth in people born overseas from places that previously did not provide so many for our population,” Prof Taylor said.

“These include the Philippines, India, Nepal and Chana, as well as a collection of African nations.”

In contrast, numbers of overseas born Territorians from traditional source countries like the UK are declining.

“In research we have conducted with overseas immigrants, we were told that feeling integrated and welcome early on arrival is vital, as well as a match between skills, education and employment,” Prof Taylor said.

“Some are also hoping to see a livelier and scaled-up retail sector and options for night activities.

“Like grandparents, overseas born Territorians can attract new residents from their home countries through word of mouth.

“This is known as chain migration in the demographic literature.”

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