NT population boom may not eventuate, experts say

GOVERNMENT population projections which show the Territory will hit 350,000 people by 2046 will only eventuate if the NT returns to its long term growth rate, experts say

Charles Darwin University demographer Dr Andrew Taylor said the government’s population projections for 2046 may not eventuate. SUPPLIED

GOVERNMENT population projections which show the Territory will hit 350,000 people by 2046 will only eventuate if the NT returns to its long term growth rate, experts say.

Charles Darwin University’s Northern Institute demographer Andrew Taylor said the latest projections released by the Department of Treasury and Finance were based on long term averages.

“They reflect the assumption that the NT will return to its long term growth rate but we can’t know for sure that will happen,” he said.

“When it comes to predicting people’s behaviour there’s a lot of uncertainly around that.

“So if we don’t climb out of the current situation we’re in of low growth before then, we well may fall short of those projections.”

Mr Taylor is leading a CDU survey into the drivers of population change in the Northern Territory.

He said the NT had a history of going through periods of low population growth and then recovering.

“Just to name a few, we’ve seen population drops like the one now during 1985-94, 1998-2004 and 2010-12,” he said.

Australian National University Centre for Social Research and Methods demographer Liz Allen. Supplied

Australian National University demographer Liz Allen said the assumptions used to calculate government’s population projections for the NT were based on trend data and adopted a sound approach.

“The difficulty is that sometimes things occur which we may not be prepared for in life and or data,” she said.

“And unfortunately, the decline in population growth has been somewhat unexpected.

“What is important to understand is why people are leaving the Territory to live elsewhere in Australia — this is the driver of the observed population decline.”