Housing Industry Association Northern Territory wants housing boost amid 30-year lows

Construction on new homes in the Territory has reached the lowest levels seen in thirty years, a local housing body has shared. Find out what they’re forecasting.

The Territory’s peak housing body said dwelling commencements in the second-half of 2023 fell to their lowest level in 30 years, with Treasury pouring cold water on a private sector-led housing recovery.

NT Housing Industry Association (HIA) executive director Luis Espinoza said dwelling commencements were “very weak” in the second-half of 2023, with quarterly commencements falling below 100 for the first time in more than three decades.

“Total housing commencements are remarkably low at these levels, primarily driven by higher interest rates,” Mr Espinoza said.

Housing Industry Association executive director Luis Espinoza. Picture Julianne Osborne

“A slightly stronger recovery is expected in the second half of 2024, on the back of improving economic conditions and government support, as the Territory’s election time in August nears.

“A long-term recovery in home building requires a return of market confidence, growth in employment and population.

“Promises of infrastructure and mining projects can help improve the current state of the economy. There have been a couple of announcements in the last few weeks which might see some movement in the second half of 2024.”

Mr Espinoza also said that residential development at Greater Holtze would “go some of the way” to increasing housing supply.

“HIA welcomes the announcement by the Chief Minister Eva Lawler of hundreds of lots ready with titles by the end of 2025.

“Building the Northern Territory’s share of the Australian government’s 1.2m homes target will require government action and an improvement in broader economic conditions,” he said.

HIA forecasted 450 detached homes will commence construction in 2023-24, down by 12.8 per cent compared to the previous year, and more than a third compared to the 2020/21 peak.

This is expected to recover to 730 in 2024/25, 920 in 2025/26, and 990 in 2026/27, which would be the decade peak.

It said overall dwelling commencements are expected to rise by “a modest” 7.6 per cent in 2023-24, before recovering in subsequent years. Dwelling commencements are expected to reach over 1,600 in 2026/27.

Treasury forecasts show private dwelling investment across the Territory will be $575m in 2024-25, declining from $611m this financial year.

The projected 2027-28 dwelling investment total of $657m is almost identical to private dwelling investment in 2018-19, which was just$656m.