Energy transition hit by slow onshore wind projects, Origin CEO says
Origin Energy's boss has warned Australia's shift from coal faces a critical gap in onshore wind development that threatens the nation's renewable energy targets.
Australia’s shift away from coal is increasingly being held back by a stubborn gap in onshore wind development, warns Origin Energy chief executive Frank Calabria.
Mr Calabria says the energy sector is struggling to match the blistering pace of rooftop solar uptake and battery installations.
The transition risks becoming imbalanced, with households investing heavily in behind-the-meter technologies while large-scale renewables face rising costs and long delays securing critical transmission infrastructure, he said.
The shortfall in new onshore wind capacity — once considered the simplest form of large-scale clean generation — is increasingly difficult amid a surge in construction costs and delays in building the transmission lines that connect wind turbines to the grid.
“Over the last six months, the adoption of behind-the-meter storage has probably exploded, and that probably looks like the next technological trend, just like you thought about rooftop solar,” he said at an event organised by Commonwealth Bank.
“But the grid-scale end is actually a much heavier lift right now because of the cost of construction, the build-out that’s required for the energy system. That’s happening and there’s progress, but that’s the one that’s actually proving to be most challenging.”
Onshore wind has become a glaring weak spot. Developers have warned that the shortfall in new capacity is deepening at the very moment Australia needs wind the most. The technology’s generation profile, which typically peaks after sunset, means it is essential for balancing the nation’s growing fleet of solar panels.
Energy market analysts have repeatedly cautioned that without a major acceleration in wind, Labor’s target of lifting renewable generation to 82 per cent by 2030 will slip out of reach. No onshore wind project in Australia has reached a final investment decision this year — a striking absence that has cast doubt over Anthony Albanese’s climate ambitions.
Labor insists the target remains achievable and has leaned heavily on the Capacity Investment Scheme to push projects forward. In October, the government underwrote almost 3 gigawatts of new wind generation in its most recent tender — the largest single allocation since the scheme began in 2023.
The CIS acts as a taxpayer-backed safety net for developers. It guarantees a minimum floor price for power, with the Commonwealth covering any shortfall if wholesale prices fall. If prices exceed an agreed cap, developers pay the excess back. While industry groups say the mechanism has helped stabilise revenues, they argue that financing certainty alone cannot overcome the inflationary pressures and supply-chain disruptions now shaping the global wind sector.
Developers have reported construction cost blowouts of up to 40 per cent across some projects, driven by materials inflation, higher interest rates and a global turbine shortage that has forced some proponents to re-tender entire projects. Uneven planning processes and growing community opposition have added further delays.
To accelerate approvals, state and federal governments have moved to streamline planning pathways and restrict the scope for objectors to block projects. But senior industry figures say the most intractable challenge — construction cost escalation — remains largely beyond the control of policymakers.
Another bottleneck is the slow expansion of transmission infrastructure, which is essential to connect remote wind resources to demand centres. Large power line projects across Victoria, NSW and Queensland have become flashpoints, with community opposition forcing design changes, route adjustments and extended consultation periods despite increasingly generous compensation packages.
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Originally published as Energy transition hit by slow onshore wind projects, Origin CEO says
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