‘Trend line against her’: Leading pollster’s Harris observation
Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck, but a famous pollster says there’s one key metric pundits are ignoring, and it’s not good for one candidate.
IN THE US
A renowned pollster claims the “trend line” is going against Kamala Harris in the final days of a nerve-shreddingly close US election campaign.
That has increased the chances of Donald Trump getting the keys to the White House.
The polls, however, show that when it comes to Tuesday’s vote, everything is still to play for.
Of the various national polls of polls, Real Clear Politics has Trump 0.3 points ahead of Harris. ABC News’ 538 website has Harris 1.2 points ahead of Trump, and The New York Times has Harris up by 1 point.
In the crucial swing states, either candidate mostly leads by one or sometimes two points.
It’s all very much within the margin of error. And just some disaffected voters in one state could decide the outcome.
It could be Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, furious at comments made at a Donald Trump rally that their island is “garbage”. Or Arab American Michiganians angry at the Biden-Harris administration for failing to rein in Israel in its wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
‘They’re lying’
“Anybody who says that they know what’s going to happen really is lying. This race is tied,” John Zogby, founder of John Zogby Strategies, told the US Department of State’s Foreign Press Centre in Washington DC on Wednesday.
“If you look at the last three or four polls that have come out, Trump may lead by one, Harris may lead by one. That is immaterial.
“If you look at the seven battleground states, leads are anywhere from 0.3 per cent to 1.4 per cent.
“Those are not leads, those are ties. The reality is neither candidate is leading in any of the states.”
Nonetheless, Mr Zogby said there were still indicators that could be gleaned from the polls. At least at this point.
One was the Harris campaign’s focus on abortion and claims it would be wound back under a future President Trump.
Nationally, abortion is significant, but by no means a top issue. Trump has tried to neutralise it.
“However, it is number two among women in general and it is tied for first or certainly in a strong second place among young women,” said Mr Zogby.
And that is a crucial demographic that is opting strongly for Harris.
Trump ‘doing guy things’
As for Trump and his running mate JD Vance, “the only way to describe them, they’re doing guy things out there,” said Mr Zogby.
“When Donald Trump says to women, ‘you’re not going to have to worry your pretty little heads’, he’s not talking to women.
“The bells and whistles are as clear as you can get. And that’s because they know that the red MAGA hat is the young guy thing. And that is who their rhetoric is trained at. This is where their votes are.”
Mr Zogby said there was “no mistake” that “this is not just (a) political campaign, this is really a culture war that’s taking place”.
Poll trajectory
To work out what might happen after Tuesday, it would be useful, the pollster said, to look at the trajectory of previous elections. Specifically what he called the “trend line”.
“10 days before the election of 2016, Hillary Clinton in the battleground states was leading by nine, 10, 11 percentage points,” he said.
“Then the FBI director issued a memo saying they were reopening a criminal investigation into Clinton’s email server.”
Following that bombshell, Clinton’s lead began to creep downwards in those crucial states.
“In Pennsylvania and Michigan, from a nine, 10-point Hillary lead to a three-point Hillary lead,” he said.
“In Wisconsin, from a 10-point lead to a tie.
“When pundits were looking at the polls, they were saying, ‘oh, the final number has Hillary leading by three’, ‘the final number has Hillary leading by one’.
“The reality is they didn’t look at the trajectory, the trend line, and that’s what’s really important.
“Watch the trend line – much more important than who is leading the day before (the election).”
And the trend line, although in no way as dramatic as in 2016, has seen Harris’ vote slip.
In August and September, The New York Times poll had her ahead by three points. Now it’s one.
In September, Real Clear Politics had the Democrat leading by two points, now she’s a whisker behind her rival.
Even if Harris does win the national vote, many election watchers have said the quirks of the Electoral College means the Democrats need to be three or more points ahead nationally to be confident of winning the presidency.
‘Trend line going against her’
With a race so tight, Michigan, with its large Arab American population, was a problem for Harris, said Mr Zogby.
“Michigan is razor thin right now. Anything that can shift a few hundred or a thousand votes one way or another takes on even greater significance.”
Arab Americans make up to 4 per cent of the Michigan vote and for two decades, they were all in for the Democrats, the pollster added.
“Gaza for Arab Americans is an extremely important and highly intense driver of their votes,” he said.
“What we’re seeing is that Trump has slightly pulled ahead among Arab Americans nationally and in Michigan.”
During the Michigan primary in February, when Joe Biden was still in the race, a significant 13 per cent of Democrats were “uncommitted” – that is, for no candidate.
“The big thing that Kamala Harris needs to worry about are those uncommitted Michigan Democrats not turning out to vote,” Mr Zogby said.
“A low voter turnout, (as well as) the trend line going against her, could have a deleterious effect.”
On Friday, Trump, sensing the Democrats’ troubles in Michigan, met Arab Americans in the state’s largest city of Detroit.
Yet other trends might be in Harris’ favour, Mr Zogby said.
Better news for Harris
One poll has stated that undecided voters were breaking to the Democrat by 62 per cent.
“If that trend continues, it looks good for Kamala Harris,” he said.
“But I don’t know if that trend will continue. I think this is very volatile.”
Mr Zogby also pointed out that some pollsters backed certain parties and so their conclusions should be treated as such.
“Whenever a Democrat candidate seems to be picking up in the polls, bam, all of a sudden, you get three or four polls that actually have R after their name in parentheses – Republican – and they’re all saying the Republican is doing better than the Democrat,” he explained.
“And I have a problem with that.”
There are concerns that these polls may be more about laying the groundwork for challenges to electoral results should Trump lose.
Indeed, different aggregate polls may well downgrade research which it is assumed comes with a political bent.
Overall, Mr Zogby said there was still no clear view of how the election would go. Harris could still prevail.
But the tightening numbers will be keeping Team Harris awake at night.
There will be a fear that her campaign could be headed for defeat as that “trend line” heads south.
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