US town that could decide the election
This remote county is the only town in America to have always correctly predicted the next president. Here’s who the locals think will prevail.
IN PORT ANGELES, WASHINGTON, USA
If you want to know how the nail bitingly close the US election will go, you could do worse than look to a remote part of the country’s north west made famous by the teen vampire saga Twilight.
Vampires aside, this foggy corner of Washington state is famous for three other things: the fabled sasquatch, a yeti like creature that’s said to inhabit the cedar and fir laden woods, an old ferry that chuffs across the Salish Sea to Canada, and for being the only part of the US that each election correctly votes for the person who will end up in the White House.
It’s the town – well three towns to be precise – that could predict whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins in just over a week’s time.
“I don’t want to think about it,” says Rachel, a Democrat voting social worker riding the bus which connects Sequim, a town in the east of Clallam County, to the ferry terminal for boats to Seattle.
“I still have PTSD from Hillary (Clinton) losing”.
The Republicans are more bullish.
“The vibe is that if we get out the vote, Trump will win,” Pamela Blakeman, who chairs the local Republican Party, tells news.com.au.
The US’ last bellwether
US presidential elections are organised by county. Up until the last election there were 19 counties across the US that were considered bellwethers. For decades, they had always opted for the person who became President.
And then, in 2016, 18 of these 19 counties went for Mr Trump. Only Clallam County, sandwiched on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula between misty mountains and the sea, went for Joe Biden. In the process, it became the US’ last remaining bellwether.
Since 1980, Clallam County has always picked the White House winner. Indeed from 1920, it’s only dropped the ball twice, in 1968 and 1976.
But it can be close. In 2020, Mr Biden had 50.18 per cent of Clallam’s votes.
The county of fewer than 80,000 people is centred on the bustling tourist town of Port Angeles but also includes the smaller settlements of Sequim and Forks, the latter where Stephanie Meyer’s Twilight saga was set.
As the crow flies, its 90km from Seattle and its four million residents. But the snaking waterways of the Puget Sound get in the way. Which has left Clallam a semirural region despite its proximity to the city.
There are seveal theories as to why it is a bellwether.
Clallam is poorer than average and more white than average. So in some ways it may mirror the most swing parts of the most swing states, like Pennsylvania.
But locals put it down to an eclectic population mix.
In the east, Sequim is full of Democrat voting retirees both from Seattle and further south, escaping the California heat. From here, the hubbub of Seattle is within relatively easy reach.
So-called “Microsoft millionaires,” enriched by the Seattle based IT giant, have also built homes here.
Then there are retirees from the armed forces. A significant part of America’s military – including half its nuclear laden submarines – are based nearby.
As you head west, it gets more Republican voting, particularly in distant Forks, where the much reduced timber industry is still a vital employer.
Port Angeles sits geographically and politically somewhere between the two.
‘In a corner by ourselves’
“We’ve historically been timber based economy but we’ve been in a slow transition to figure out what comes next,” says Mark Ozias, a county commissioner whose role is to ensure Clallam spends its money wisely on things like roads and health programs.
“It’s an interesting mix of Native American tribes to what would be called pioneer families – who have lived here for a long time – to new people”.
Mr Ozias, a Democrat, said the county’s remoteness has led to a level of bipartisan co-operation.
“We’re up in a corner by ourselves. We’ve got one road in and out and that engenders both a sense of independence, but also requires the community to be successful”.
“Harris is going to win,” he told news.com.au without hesitation in Port Angeles.
“I look forward to welcoming ‘Madame President’”.
‘Standard batshit conspiracy theories’
Close to the Bella Italia restaurant in Port Angeles, reportedly the eatery where in Twilight Edward and Bella first have dinner, news.com.au met Phyllis Bernard.
She is an independent voter who is herself standing for election to retain her role overseeing the region’s public utilities, like water and electricity. Hers is one of a number of local elections also taking place on November 5.
She agrees that in Clallam people of all colours work together. She adds that some people, even those registered Democrat or Republican, can switch sides.
“People aren’t as committed to strict party lines.
“I went out to Forks, which is much more Trump land, and there was a guy there who told me he’s voting for (Harris) because she has the qualifications,” said Ms Barnard.
Not that the extremes of MAGA have bypassed Clallam altogether. At the tail end of Covid, a far right wing mayor was elected in Sequim who, Ms Barnard said, was spouting “standard Trump batshit conspiracy theories”.
A local effort saw him turfed out at the next election from someone more moderate.
‘They couldn't stand Hillary’
Ms Barnard has a theory why Clallam swung to Mr Trump in 2016.
“They couldn’t stand Hillary (Clinton),” she said of Democrats who didn’t vote for their own candidate.
“They were Bernie bros,” she added, referring to left wing senator Bernie Sanders.
But Ms Barnard fears some voters are intoxicated by Mr Trump.
“People took Obama’s eight years of prosperity for granted, just as they’re taking Biden’s economic progress for granted.
“They say they want things to be more exciting. Hell no, I don’t want exciting. I want dull, steady progress”.
Ms Bernard said her campaign was backed by the Democrats and “moderate Republicans” who had broken with the party’s MAGA arm.
Commissioner Ozias agreed there was a divide in the GOP.
“Look how many people have campaign signs up for a suite of Republican candidates, but they don’t have a Trump sign up.
“This election, you see Trump signs in isolation.
“Lots of people are supporting (local) Republican candidates but whether they’ll actually vote for Trump, I guess we’ll see.
“But they certainly don’t publicly support him. There may be a number who sit this one out or maybe cross party lines.”
Republicans ‘optimistic’
Nonsense, said Lisa Millar, the fundraising manager of the local Republican Party.
“The last election, Trump signs were free and were everywhere. Now you have to buy them for 20 bucks. That’s the reasons that you don’t see the Trump signs.”
“And people steal them,” she claimed.
Democrats in Clallam County, talking to news.com.au, also claimed their signs were being stolen.
Washington is a deeply Democratic state. The local Republican Party is under no illusions that Mr Trump will prevail state wide. But they have a good chance in Clallam.
Ms Millar said the Democrat politicians that ran the state didn’t care much for the concerns of Republican voters.
“We’re running into people that say ‘I’ve always voted Democrat, but I can’t this year’”. Although, Ms Blakeman admitted, “I’m not saying that’s a ton of them”.
The economy was the main issue, she said, as well as “the social issues, and censorship”.
“People here are looking at America saying ‘are we going in the right direction?’
“The world was more stable with Mr Trump but we really could go into World War Three now,” said Ms Blakeman.
“(Mr Trump) knows the economy and foreign policy. Peace through strength”.
But, Ms Blakeman conceded, the fight had been harder since Mr Biden dropped out. Before then Mr Trump was a shoo-in.
“We’re optimistic,” she said. “But it will depend on who turns out the biggest vote”.
Is it possible Clallam could end its bellwether streak? That locals could vote for Ms Harris but the presidency goes to Mr Trump.
“Realistically, I think Trump will win (nationally) and probably larger than people are expecting,” Ms Millar said.
Ms Barnard said given Mr Trump was a “known entity,” she couldn’t understand how he could win.
“I would like to think that people know that when we tried it with him, people died (of Covid) and they had no work”.
“But I think it’s going to be as close to 50-50 as it is possible.”
Ms Barnard said some voters still count not fathom a woman as president.
If Ms Harris did win, Ms Barnard said, she worried violence might follow from some.
“They believe that their life depends upon violently standing up for their man, DJT.”
‘Gut not as strong as 2020’
Rachel, riding the bus, told news.com.au, she can “always just feel” who will prevail.
“In 2016, I had a very bad feeling. I just knew that (Ms Clinton) wasn’t going to win.
“But Harris is not Hillary, it’s 2024 not 2016 and reproductive rights, freedoms and upholding norms is important to Americans.
“But my gut is not as strong as 2020, when Biden won. It’ll be a nail biter”.
In Port Angeles’ Bella Rosa coffee shop, opposite Clallam County courthouse and a big Safeway supermarket, sits Michael Rotman, a new age author. From Philadelphia he is one of the area’s newcomers.
“People here are leaning towards Kamala Harris,” he said, and then immediately qualified that with: “but I don’t know”.
The folks in Forks, he said, were in a “financial crisis” due to the timber industry. They would likely be all in on Trump.
As for Clallam’s bellwether status he noted the large number of casinos in the county, all on Native American land.
“The people around here, they’re good gamblers”.
With elections too, it seems.
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