New polling shows Kamala Harris ‘wiping out’ Donald Trump’s lead in key swing states

New polling from the key swing states that will decide America’s election show a drastic change since Joe Biden stepped down.

New polling across seven of America’s key swing states shows Donald Trump’s lead has been almost completely “wiped out”, changing the presidential race from a potential landslide in his favour to a toss-up.

Before he withdrew from the contest, President Joe Biden was losing to Mr Trump in every swing state, and had trailed in the national polling average all year.

Mr Biden announced his exit a week-and-a-half ago and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democrats’ new nominee. The party swiftly coalesced around her, and has seen its standing in the polls improve – though Mr Trump remains the favourite.

Joe Biden addressing Americans from the Oval Office, explaining his decision to withdraw, last week. Picture: Evan Vucci/AFP

Vice President Kamala Harris arriving in Atlanta, Georgia for a rally today. Picture: Megan Varner. Getty Images via AFP

Three new national polls have been released today. Two of them give a narrow lead to Ms Harris, the other a slightly chunkier advantage to the former president. Reuters/Ipsos has Ms Harris leading 43-42 among registered voters; Harvard/Harris has Mr Trump up 52-48.

Ultimately though, American presidential elections come down to a small number of states that don’t lean heavily towards either party. Each state carries a certain number of electoral votes, calculated based on its population; the winning candidate is the one who manages to pass 270 electoral votes.

Which brings us to the most significant of those three polls. Conducted by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult, it is based off a large sample of 11,538 voters, across seven key states.

The topline, national figure has Ms Harris leading Mr Trump with 47 per cent of the vote to his 46. But the state-by-state figures matter more.

Kamala Harris wipes out Trump’s swing-state lead in new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll that also shows the VP riding a wave of enthusiasm among young, Black & Hispanic voters. pic.twitter.com/ftk9cUevV3

— Jon Levi (@JonLevi) July 30, 2024

They show Ms Harris leading in Michigan (53-42), Wisconsin (49-47), Arizona (49-47) and Nevada (47-45). She is tied with Mr Trump in Georgia (47-47). And the Republican nominee leads in North Carolina (48-46) and Pennsylvania (50-46).

The Democrats’ vote share has increased in all seven of those states.

“Kamala Harris wipes out Trump’s swing state lead,” Bloomberg reporter Jon Levi said, noting the data showed Ms Harris “riding a wave of enthusiasm among young, black and Hispanic voters”.

“Harris has wiped out Trump’s lead,” echoed fellow Bloomberg reporter Josh Wingrove.

“The poll found a big Democrat lead in Michigan, a more modest Trump lead in Pennsylvania and close contests everywhere else. Dead heat.”

Project these poll results onto the electoral map and you get a razor, razor thin margin, with Ms Harris on 268 electoral votes and Mr Trump on 254. Georgia, as the one tied state, would determine the winner.

What the American electoral map would look like, according to the Morning Consult survey. Image: 270toWin

Coincidentally, Ms Harris travelled to that state’s capital, Atlanta, for a rally today. Mr Trump will hold his own event, at the very same venue, on Saturday.

“The momentum in this race is shifting. And there are signs that Donald Trump is feeling it,” she told a crowd of her supporters.

“We are the underdogs in this race. We are. But we are a people power campaign.”

Ms Harris brought up Mr Trump’s decision, as it stands, to withdraw from the presidential debate that had been scheduled for mid-September. He agreed to that debate when Mr Biden was still the Democratic nominee.

Mr Trump’s campaign now says there is no point in agreeing to a debate until the Democrats have settled on a candidate. The Vice President has secured pledges from enough delegates to become her party’s nominee, but the Democratic convention isn’t until mid-August.

“Last week, you may have seen, he pulled out of the debate in September he had previously agreed to,” Ms Harris said.

“He won’t debate. But he and his running mate sure seem to have a lot to say about me. And by the way, don’t you find some of their stuff to just be plain weird?

“Well, Donald. I do hope you’ll reconsider meeting me on the debate stage. Because as the saying goes, if you got something to say, say it to my face.”

Kamala Harris. Picture: Stephanie Carbrough/AFP

As we’ve previously written, that line about Mr Trump and his vice presidential pick, J.D. Vance, being “weird” has become a dominant message from the Harris campaign, since she took over the candidacy.

Speaking to Fox News host Laura Ingraham, Mr Trump attempted to turn the attack back onto the Democrats.

“I hit a nice 7-iron right next to the pin. Biden wouldn’t do that. He couldn’t hit the ball 15 yards,” Mr Trump said, before pivoting into the “weird” issue.

“‘Just plain weird.’ You know who’s plain weird? She’s plain weird. She’s a weird person,” said the former president.

“Look at her past. Look at what she does. And look at what she used to say about herself. And I won’t get into it. But what she used to say, and who she was, compared to what she said starting in about 2016.”

Ms Harris, who was previously district-attorney of San Francisco and attorney-general of California, launched her campaign to become a US senator in that year. She served one term in the Senate before running for president, losing the nomination to Mr Biden, and then agreeing to become his vice presidential nominee.