Donald Trump’s path to victory relies on him holding one state

Trump isn’t done yet. There’s a narrow path to four more years and Trump’s campaign rally is following this exact route to lead him to victory.

ANALYSIS

President Donald Trump has an electoral path to four more years. But it’s just as rough-and-tumble as it was in 2016.

Polls – which now attract significant amounts of scepticism – suggest he is within striking distance of his Democrat opponent Joe Biden in key battleground states. These include Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. And if he adds Pennsylvania to the tally, he could keep the top job.

It’s a path to victory littered with “ifs”.

If the polls are sort-of correct; if the vigour with which Mr Trump has thrown himself into the campaign after being diagnosed with COVID pays off; if his voting base is energised enough.

This accumulation of “ifs” has given Mr Biden better betting odds than Mr Trump. But the punters have been wrong before.

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US President Donald Trump arrives for a Make America Great Again rally at Hickory Regional Airport in North Carolina on November 1, 2020. Picture: Brendan Smialowski/AFP.

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ENGINEERING VICTORY

Mr Trump has been infused with new life.

Over the weekend he’s engaged in more than two dozen rallies over seven swinging states. He’s not ruled out campaigning right up to the Tuesday deadline.

It’s an effort with the potential for rich rewards.

Mr Trump needs 260 Electoral College votes to win. Each US state has an allocation of Electoral College votes based on their population. The public vote gets divided among these representatives, who then go on to formally submit their own vote.

US election strategists have been carefully measuring public moods and actions in key states where the number of Republican and Democrat candidates are neck-and-neck.

Which way these few states tumble will determine the Presidential outcome.

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Donald Trump’s campaign vigour could see him get a narrow victory. Here he is in Montoursville, Pennsylvania. Picture: Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images/AFP.

Some say they can see a scenario unfolding where Mr Trump secures 279 Electoral College votes to give him a clear, uncontested victory.

Others say a split 259-259 score is eminently possible. Such a tie would dramatically inflame tensions already fanned by allegations of vote rigging, voter restraint and electoral fraud. And the Republicans hold the advantage of controlling more state and federal court judges than their Democrat opponents.

MARGINS OF ERROR

Opinion polls are again proving problematic. Their statistical margins of error have shown a strong tendency to tilt away from Mr Trump.

One poll focused on Wisconsin last week showed Mr Biden had extended his lead there to 17 points. Another showed it was only five.

Nationwide, all it takes is a 2 per cent margin of polling error.

States such as Florida and North Carolina are suddenly back in contention. Ohio and Georgia look more Republican. And Pennsylvania – which has the power to determine the election’s outcome – is even more important.

And indications are, that error is real.

Pollsters have been insisting Texas is turning blue (Democrat), or at the very least purple (as much blue as red). But analysis of early votes there indicate a clear majority have been cast by registered Republicans.

Democratic vice presidential nominee, Senator Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at First Saint John Cathedral on October 30, 2020 in Fort Worth, Texas. Picture: Montinique Monroe/Getty Images/AFP.

Republican campaign officials have long been rejecting the official poll figures for Florida. They say Mr Biden is in a worse position now than Hillary Clinton was in 2016.

Early polling station reports bear this out.

It’s the same story as Texas: Republicans have been turning out earlier and in greater numbers than their Democratic counterparts in Florida’s biggest county – Miami-Dade.

“I don’t have a good answer for why that might be. But that is certainly a factor at the moment that is giving Democrats a lot of worry,” Democrat data analyst Matt Isbell told local media.

Mr Trump campaign strategic adviser Steve Cortes was more upbeat: “While we take nothing for granted, we are increasingly confident.”

LINCHPIN TO VICTORY

The Republican party’s analysts were extremely successful in identifying – and then swinging – undecided communities in 2016. Evidence indicates a similar targeted strategy in 2020.

He didn’t win Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire in 2016. But Mr Trump has refocused his efforts there this year. Why? A win in Minnesota could give him the Electoral College numbers needed to sustain significant losses elsewhere.

The rust-belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are again in the balance. Mr Trump seized all three in 2016. But his popularity has – apparently – been on the wane ever since.

This may be why the Trump campaign has put enormous effort into Pennsylvania. He held four rallies there on Saturday alone. Given the enormous stack of Electoral College votes that state holds, it’s one of a very few “must win” states.

With it, Mr Trump has a viable chance.

Without it, he will struggle.

Donald Trump arriving for a rally at Williamsport Regional Airport in Montoursville, Pennsylvania. Picture: Mandel Ngan/AFP

Mr Trump has himself predicted the outcome of the election “will end up in court”.

Democrats have been broadcasting since Thursday that mailout ballots would be too late to avoid threats of being invalidated by the courts.

Now it’s all about the ballot boxes.

Both Mr Trump and Mr Biden are praying for unprecedented voter turnouts to cement their victory in electoral concrete.

Only then is there a chance of avoiding a protracted, bitter – and potentially violent – battle to secure the US Presidency.

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel