Experts warn coronavirus has ‘pandemic potential’, but it’s still too soon to declare

The World Health Organisation has warned that the world must prepare for a possible coronavirus pandemic.

The World Health Organisation has warned the world is not ready for another major coronavirus outbreak.

But while the rising infection rate is stoking global fears, experts say it’s still too soon to declare Covid-19 a pandemic.

A pandemic refers to an infectious disease that threatens lots of people all over the world simultaneously. A recent example was the 2009 swine flu pandemic, which killed thousands of people across different world regions.

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The WHO no longer officially labels such outbreaks as “pandemics”, but has acknowledged the coronavirus outbreak remains a global emergency.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters yesterday that the number of new cases in recent days outside of mainland China was “deeply concerning”.

But he said while the disease has the “potential” to be a pandemic, it wasn’t there yet.

“For the moment we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus and we are not witnessing large scale severe disease or deaths,” he said. “Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely, it has. Are we there yet? From our assessment, not yet.”

The World Health Organisation has warned the world is not ready for another major coronavirus outbreak. Picture: NIAID-RML via AP

University of Sydney associate professor Adam Kamradt-Scott, who has worked in pandemic preparedness, stressed that the vast majority of cases are still contained to China.

“It really is too early to call this a pandemic,” he told news.com.au. “What we have at the moment is a series of outbreaks in countries other than China, which is certainly alarming. We need more information, particularly about the outbreaks in Italy and Iran.

“In the event it is determined that there is widespread local community transmission then this would indicate that the virus has slipped containment efforts and we are more likely to see the WHO declare a pandemic.”

This mirrors the WHO’s statement that, while it remains too early to call the outbreak a pandemic, countries should be “in a phase of preparedness”.

Prof Kamradt-Scott said this refers to certain countries that haven’t taken warnings about the virus and prepared accordingly.

He noted that, even if the WHO was to declare a pandemic, it would be unlikely to change the international response at this time.

There are still growing concerns that the virus is on the cusp of a pandemic. Picture: Ariel Schalit/AP

However, there are still growing concerns that the virus is on the cusp of a pandemic.

Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Brendan Murphy, told Nine newspapers there was “a strong possibility of a pandemic” based on developments over the past few days.

Australia’s plan to tackle the coronavirus draws from the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza, based on a hypothetical disease from which the nation would have little immunity.

Prof Kamradt-Scott said Canberra had a comprehensive plan to tackle such outbreaks, noting that the government had monitored and raised its levels as the virus continued to grow.

The coronavirus has killed almost 2600 people in China, and infected 77,150, but the number has been steadily dropping over the past few days.

However, more cases of the virus were occurring around the world, including more than 150 in Italy, 833 in South Korea and at least 12 deaths in Iran of 43 cases, suggesting travel bans were not working.

Prof Kamradt-Scott noted the WHO had advised against imposing travel restrictions.

“What the revelation of further cases and what appears to be outbreaks in at least three countries other than China suggests is that travel bans against China are going to be less effective in preventing the spread of the virus,” he said. “While governments may be tempted to increase travel bans, it’s pointless as the virus continues to spread.”

The WHO no longer officially labels such outbreaks as ‘pandemics’, but has acknowledged the coronavirus outbreak remains a global emergency. Picture: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Australia has updated its official travel advice for Japan and South Korea due to concerns about the spread of the virus, with travellers being told to exercise a “high degree of caution”.

“Monitor your health closely and follow the advice of local authorities,” the Department of Foreign Affairs said.

Stock markets have plunged in Asia, Europe and North America with investors fearing the economic disruption the outbreak has caused in China could have a wider global impact.

“The virus is alarming because it’s a new virus and we don’t know how it will continue to evolve,” said Prof Kamradt-Scott.

He added: “But it’s important to emphasise that the vast majority of people exhibit mild symptoms, and the fatality rate is around 2 per cent based on official figures. Most of the people exposed to this are recovering.”