Fears grow as Putin’s May 9 deadline for Ukraine victory nears

While Vladimir Putin’s dream of a quick victory in Ukraine has completely perished, this new deadline could signal a ‘destructive’ and deadlier shift in Russia’s attack.

As Russia approaches its Victory Day celebrations, time is running out for Vladimir Putin to secure a win in Ukraine. Picture: Ramil Sitdikov – Host Photo Agency via Getty Images.

If Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was for reunification and a grand show of the Russian Federation’s military might, then the country’s annual Victory Day was likely billed as the date in which the Kremlin would boast about its victory.

Just under three weeks away, the May 9 celebrations likely loom in the minds of the nation’s President and his officials.

The reality is less rosy.

The date will mark 75 days of fighting since the invasion began on February 24. It also represents an internationally condemned war that’s seen Russia hit with wide-ranging sanctions, a crushed economy and the death of an estimated 20,000 Russian troops.

Historical T-34 tanks moving through Moscow’s Red Square during the 2021 Victory Day celebrations. Picture: Dimitar Dilkoff / AFP.

What is the significance of Victory Day?

In Russia, May 9 is also known as Victory Day. The country celebrates the surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945 and the signing of the German Instrument of Surrender. While the signing officially took place on the evening of May 8 in Berlin, it occurred after midnight in Moscow.

However this year, the date holds more weight.

According to the Kyiv Independent, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports Russian troops have been told the “war must end by May 9”.

Commentators online have also shared fears and theories of how Moscow may change tactics to ensure there is something to commemorate.

Russian Defence Ministry says 11,000 military personnel have been involved in their Victory Day celebrations. Picture: Olga Maltseva/ AFP.

In Russia, preparations for the celebrations have already begun. Rehearsals from the annual parade show eight MiG-29 planes flying in a Z formation, with the letter symbolic of the insignia painted onto Russian tanks and emblazoned onto clothing and accessories worn by pro-war Russians.

A statement from the Russian Defence Ministry also declared that “11,000 military personnel, 131 units of modern weapons and military equipment, and 77 planes and helicopters” will be involved in the preparations for the parade.

Fears increase for Mariupol

In lieu of a complete victory against Ukraine, military officials believe Russia will aim to take Mariupol by the May 9 deadline.

Arabic news outlet Alarabiya reported that a European official fears the date could lead to even more civil casualties in Mariupol, as Russian forces race to achieve a victory and ‘liberate’ the city.

The official also said because the city stands between the Russian-occupied cities of Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea, Mariupol is also ”the most important objective for Moscow”.

“My fear is that it is going to be worse than Bucha,” the official said.

“At the end of the day, we do expect a complete destruction of the city and many civilian casualties in Mariupol.”

Russian soldier patrol the ruins of the Mariupol drama theatre after it was bombed by Russian troops. Picture: Alexander Nemnov / AFP.

The comparison is a bleak one. Russian soldiers in Bucha – a city outside Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv – have been accused of committing war crimes, with Ukrainian police claiming more than 900 civilians were found with fatal gunshot wounds and buried in mass graves, some with their hands tied behind their backs.

Their actions, however, earned them an honorary title from Putin, who gave the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade the title of Guards and praised them for their “mass heroism and valour, tenacity, and courage”.

Hundreds of civilians were killed in Bucha – a town near Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv. Picture: Yasuyoshi Chiba / AFP.

Putin eyes new region

While Russia’s consistent efforts in Mariupol have stalled, the military has also made a push to hit the eastern region - dubbed the “battle for Donbas”.

Strategically capturing Donbas would allow Russia to create a land bridge to Crimea, which would benefit their military and trading efforts, as well as access to the Black Sea.

Swedish economist and author Anders Åslund that Mr Putin’s self-imposed deadline of May 9 also likely influenced Russia’s new push.

“He wants the battle of the Donbas to start soon so that he can record a victory before May 9,” Mr Åslund wrote.

“I presume he will cause Ukraine to win before that date. For how long can Russia afford Putin?”

Everything suggests that the great amateur Putin is trying to decide everything himself. He wants the battle of the Donbass to start soon so that he can record a victory before May 9.
I presume he will cause Ukraine to win before that date.
For how long can Russia afford Putin?

— Anders Ã…slund (@anders_aslund) April 13, 2022

Is the war likely to end by May 9? Not really

While the pressure may be on for Russia to declare victory by May 9, experts and commentators agree that the idea of an end date is tentative.

Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, Samuel Ramani said that while there’s no “hard deadline” and an end date is “unlikely”, Mr Putin could attempt to devote more resources to the conflict.

“If anything changes on May 9 (which is certainly not guaranteed), it could be the date when Putin calls for a more sweeping mobilisation of the Russian people and resources,” Prof Ramani tweeted.

I agree, Russia's operations have no hard deadline. May 9 is very unlikely to be an end date for the war. If anything changes on May 9 (which is certainly not guaranteed), it could be the date when Putin calls for a more sweeping mobilization of the Russian people and resources. https://t.co/31sMGVpWXz

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) April 19, 2022

However, as Russia continues to plan its elaborate celebrations, the country’s future remains embedded in turmoil.

Researchers from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe Moscow’s battle of Donbas will likely “achieve limited gains”.

Low morale among troops and “continuing logistics challenges” also plague Moscow, with US officials estimating that Russia’s military has lost around 25 per cent of its combat power.

Russia’s economy is also on the brink, as sweeping economic sanctions have paralysed about half of Russia’s $US640 billion ($A865 billion) foreign money. This means the Kremlin has a 30-day grace period to make the payments before it will officially be in default on May 4.

So, while Russia may celebrate their battle wins (real or imaginary) on May 9, the war – and the many complications and repercussions that have sprung from it – is far from over.