Why experts believe Vladimir Putin’s new tactic in Ukraine may be doomed to fail

Vladimir Putin’s new war tactic in Ukraine is in full swing, but, just like his attempts to capture Kyiv, his plan may be doomed to backfire.

Vladimir Putin has launched a furious new attack on Ukraine after early setbacks forced him to change tactics, but experts have warned this new plan may be doomed to fail as well.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced late on Monday night that Russia had launched a major offensive into eastern Ukraine.

The fresh attack has been branded the “battle for Donbas”, with Russian forces raining assaults down on key military targets across the country.

However, researchers from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested it won’t be easy for Mr Putin to execute his new plan successfully.

“The Russian offensive in the east is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous Russian offensives, but Russian forces may be able to wear down Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited gains,” an assessment from the ISW stated.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new offensive could be doomed to fail. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / AFP

Mr Putin’s new military assault comes just weeks after he was forced to pull his forces out of northern parts of Ukraine after they repeatedly failed to capture the capital of Kyiv.

It was an embarrassing retreat for the Russian leader, who had been confident his military would overwhelm Ukrainian forces shortly after the invasion began on February 24.

Now Russia’s efforts have been redirected to the Donbas region, which has been partly controlled by pro-Moscow separatists since 2014.

Troops have also been focused on capturing the key port city of Mariupol, which would allow Russian forces to link up with troops already in Donbas to fight for complete control of the region and forge a land corridor to already-annexed Crimea.

ISW’s new assessment claimed that Russian forces may have not taken the “operational pause” necessary to properly reinstate previously damaged units and prepare them for this new offensive.

“As we have assessed previously, Russian forces withdrawn from around Kyiv and going back to fight in Donbas have, at best, been patched up and filled out with soldiers from other damaged units, and the Russian military has few, if any, cohesive units not previously deployed to Ukraine to funnel into new operations,” the institute noted.

“Frequent reports of disastrously low Russian morale and continuing logistics challenges indicate the effective combat power of Russian units in eastern Ukraine is a fraction of their on-paper strength in numbers of battalion tactical groups.”

A photograph taken from Novodruzhesk village, shows dark smoke rising in Rubizhne city, on April. Picture: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP

Footage from the front line in Kharkiv. Picture: D.Emery/Twitter

ISW researches did concede that Russian forces may be able to wear down Ukrainian forces in the east with a “heavy concentration of firepower and sheer weight of numbers”.

However, this would still likely come at a “high cost”.

“A sudden and dramatic Russian offensive success remains highly unlikely, however, and Ukrainian tactical losses would not spell the end of the campaign in eastern Ukraine, much less the war as a whole,” the assessment stated.

Last week, Mr Putin claimed Russia had been left with “no other choice” but to invade Ukraine.

Speaking at the Vostochny space launch facility in Russia’s far east, the Russian leader maintained that he had done the “right thing” by sending troops into Ukraine.

“This new generation of Ukrainian nationalists are especially clashing with Russia. You see how Nazi ideology became a fact of life in Ukraine, it was unavoidable,” he said.

“We are taking steps to provide security for Russia. We didn’t have any other choice.

“We did the right thing and I have no doubt that our aims will be achieved.”

US, allies to meet as conflict escalates

US President Joe Biden will convene a meeting of allies to discuss the Ukraine conflict Tuesday, the White House said.

The meeting, announced on Biden’s schedule, “is part of our regular co-ordination with allies and partners in support of Ukraine,” an official told AFP, without naming who would be included on the video call.

It will also cover “efforts to hold Russia accountable,” the White House said.

Videos and photos have begun to flood social media, showing explosions lighting up the night sky across Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden will convene a meeting of allies to discuss the Ukraine conflict. Picture: Mandel Ngan/AFP

Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv are just some of the areas where large scale assaults have been reported.

Air raid warnings are currently in place for almost all of Ukraine, with sirens blasting across dozens of cities and towns.

Journalist Alejandro Alvarez shared videos of what appeared to be weapons being fired in the direction of Mykolaiv.

Another video showed what one reporter claimed was “cluster munitions” exploding in Mykolaiv.

Whatever new offensive the Russians have been repositioning to Eastern Ukraine for seems to be getting underway tonight. Outgoing fire from occupied areas of Donetsk and Kherson; almost all of Ukraine fell under air raid alerts over the last hour. pic.twitter.com/K3JlZgb7vM

— Alejandro Alvarez (@aletweetsnews) April 18, 2022

Video from Mykolaiv, Ukraine shows what appears to be cluster munitions exploding. pic.twitter.com/uVPdCChG5n

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) April 18, 2022

Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, said attacks had been launched along almost the “entire front line”.

“This morning, an active phase of the Russian offensive set off almost along the entire front line, the occupiers tried to break through our defences. Our military is defending, we are not surrendering our territories,” he wrote on Twitter.

“The Russian military was tasked to occupy the territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by Easter, thus making a gift to their Fuhrer. However, they will not succeed!”

Mr Danilov urged Ukrainian residents living in frontline areas to evacuate if they can, warning people not to “underestimate” the enemy.

Regional governor of the eastern Lugansk region Sergiy Gaiday described the scenes as “hell”.

“It’s hell. The offensive has begun, the one we’ve been talking about for weeks. There’s constant fighting in Rubizhne and Popasna, fighting in other peaceful cities,” he said on social media.

– with AFP