Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers says even if this week’s economic growth numbers prove to be positive, there is little doubt Australia is in a recession that has ended 29 consecutive years of expansion.
The national accounts for the March quarter are released on Wednesday, which will take into account the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.
Economists’ forecasts centre on a 0.3 per cent economic contraction in the quarter, which will drag annual growth down to just 1.4 per cent.
The annual growth rate at 2.2 per cent as of the December quarter was already well below its long-running average of 2.8 per cent.
Forecasts range for a decline of a much as 0.7 per cent in the quarter. “Even if the March quarter was not negative, the idea that we’re not in a recession right now is fanciful,” Dr Chalmers told Sky News’ Sunday Agenda program.
“Most economists, the government, the Reserve Bank, and certainly Labor expect that the June quarter will be much worse than the March quarter.”
Treasury has forecast a contraction of 10 per cent in the June quarter to be reported in September.
A technical recession is commonly measured by two consecutive months of economic contraction.
AAP