Graph that proves NSW should calm down amid rising Covid cases

There are a lot of people concerned by what will happen in NSW today as Covid cases are likely to rise again. But we’ve had it much worse before.

There is a lot of speculation about lockdowns and rising case numbers as NSW plunges into another Groundhog Day of anticipated coronavirus chaos today.

Despite NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard saying there was “zero” truth to rumours Sydney would go into lockdown on Friday — many residents in Sydney are preparing themselves for bad news.

And, it’s easy to see why when you look at the new case numbers coming through each day.

Although they’re are relatively small in the grand scheme of things, they are increasing each day and spreading further afield.

On Wednesday coronavirus infections almost doubled for the second day in a row. There were 10 new locally acquired cases in that 24-hour period, seven of which were announced the previous day.

Cars line up for Covid-19 testing at Bondi in Sydney. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Joel Carrett

But there was also 13 new local infections confirmed after the reporting period which will be included in today’s numbers.

All-in-all, the Bondi cluster currently stands at 37 cases as of 11am yesterday, and we’ll likely see that increase this morning.

However, if you compare this outbreak to previous clusters in the state it may give you a sense of optimism.

The ABC has crunched the numbers and analysed the first eight days of three clusters: the current outbreak in Bondi, the Avalon cluster at Christmas, and the Crossroads Hotel cluster that sparked NSW’s second wave last year.

In a graph made using official figures you can see that the Avalon cluster exploded at a much faster rate than what we’re seeing this week.

That cluster was sparked by a superspreader event at the Avalon Beach RSL Club, and subsequent cases at the Avalon Bowling Club.

By this point in the outbreak, the Avalon cluster had reached 119 cases, and the Crossroads Hotel cluster was at 50 cases.

So on raw case numbers, NSW is in a better position than it was in was in those previous outbreaks.

It’s important to point out that that we a dealing with a new variant of the virus this time around — which is understood to be more infectious than previous strains.

However, it’s also important to point out that vaccines have been shown, by data in the UK, to work well against the Delta variant — which is currently spreading in Sydney — after two doses.

Despite the UK recording more than 16,000 new cases overnight, there were 16 deaths in the same period for the widely-vaccinated nation.

While the vaccine roll out here has been slow, you would hope that those most at risk in NSW have at least had the opportunity to have a jab.

Yesterday, the sharp increase in cases prompted NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian to announce a raft of new restrictions, including limits on visitors to homes and making masks mandatory at all indoor venues including workplaces and gyms.

Epidemiologist and advisor to the World Health Organisation Professor Mary-Louise McLaws said that the current restrictions should have happened sooner.

She predicted a “big spike” in today’s numbers and claimed Sydney will be “very lucky” if it does manage to avoid a lockdown.

“Normally with a Delta, you would see like they did in Melbourne – very fast rise in case numbers and then an incredibly long goodbye – a really long tail,” Prof McLaws said.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

“But we’ve seen something completely different in Sydney – a very slow increase in numbers … If we get away without a lockdown, then fantastic – I was wrong, fantastic.

“But I’m hoping that we don’t keep seeing high numbers and that we do quickly see a tail.”

Ms Berejiklian has now urged Sydney residents to “abandon non-essential activities” and not attend social gatherings unless absolutely necessary.

But she said authorities weren’t considering a lockdown at the moment as they didn’t want to burden citizens with more restrictions “unless we absolutely have to”.

“We know basically where the super spreading events have been, we know where the virus is circulating, and we don’t want to take any further action than what we have now. This relies on all of us reining in our behaviour, all of us following the health orders that are coming into place from 4pm,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“I am not ruling out any further action, but I am also confident that if we adhere to the health orders today, we will have a good chance of getting on top of this outbreak.

“I am not going to rule out further action, I am not going to rule out what happens beyond a week, because we don’t know.”

– with Hannah Paine