Prediction Sydney will see ‘big spike’ in numbers as experts say lockdown needed

Experts are predicting a “big spike” in new covid infections amid growing concern a lockdown is needed as authorities scramble to stay on top of cases.

Experts have repeated calls for Sydney to go into a “short, sharp” lockdown amid predictions the state will record a “big spike” in cases of the highly infectious Delta strain on Thursday.

It comes despite NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard saying there was “zero” truth to rumours Sydney would go into lockdown on Friday.

On Wednesday coronavirus infections almost doubled for the second day in a row after 16 new locally acquired cases lifted the Bondi cluster to 37.

There were 10 new locally acquired cases in the 24 hours to 8pm Tuesday night, seven of which were announced yesterday.

But there was also 13 new local infections confirmed after the reporting period which will be included in Wednesday’s numbers, which will be announced Thursday.

Of those 16 new cases, four of those are mystery cases, meaning officials don’t know where those people caught covid and are of most concern to authorities.

Positive cases also seem to have spread across Sydney despite the focus on Bondi Westfield earlier in the outbreak. The most recent exposure sites included suburbs stretching from Darlinghurt, Bondi, Mascot, Narellan and Meadowbank.

There has also been one superspreader event at a birthday party at West Hoxton where 10 people were infected.

RELATED: NSW records 16 new cases as new restrictions announced

There have been constant queues at Sydney’s Bondi Beach coronavirus testing centre all week. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Flavio Brancaleone

The sharp increase in cases prompted NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian to announce a raft of new restrictions, including limits on visitors to homes and making masks mandatory at all indoor venues including workplaces and gyms.

Physician and ABC reporter Dr Norman Swan said he believes current restrictions “probably won’t” work in slowing the outbreak’s spread.

“You see the numbers. I think the numbers are going to be double digit tomorrow from what I can gather,” he told The Project.

“And that’s getting uncomfortably large, uncomfortably large in terms of the contact tracers being able to tie it down and we may well regret not going to a short, sharp lockdown … They don’t like using the word, ‘lockdown’ in New South Wales, but it is pretty close to that now.

Epidemiologist and advisor to the World Health Organisation Professor Mary-Louise McLaws said that the current restrictions should have happened sooner.

She predicted a “big spike” in tomorrow’s numbers and claimed Sydney will be “very lucky” if it does manage to avoid a lockdown.

“Normally with a Delta, you would see like they did in Melbourne – very fast rise in case numbers and then an incredibly long goodbye – a really long tail,” Prof McLaws said.

“But we’ve seen something completely different in Sydney – a very slow increase in numbers … If we get away without a lockdown, then fantastic – I was wrong, fantastic.

“But I’m hoping that we don’t keep seeing high numbers and that we do quickly see a tail.”

Sydney residents must ‘abandon non-essential activities’

Ms Berejiklian has now urged Sydney residents to “abandon non-essential activities” and not attend social gatherings unless absolutely necessary.

But she said authorities weren’t considering a lockdown at the moment as they didn’t want to burden citizens with more restrictions “unless we absolutely have to”.

“We know basically where the super spreading events have been, we know where the virus is circulating, and we don’t want to take any further action than what we have now. This relies on all of us reining in our behaviour, all of us following the health orders that are coming into place from 4pm,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“I am not ruling out any further action, but I am also confident that if we adhere to the health orders today, we will have a good chance of getting on top of this outbreak.

“I am not going to rule out further action, I am not going to rule out what happens beyond a week, because we don’t know.”

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

States slam shut to Sydney

Other states have reacted swiftly against the outbreak, with South Australia and Western Australia shutting their borders completely to NSW.

Queensland has now closed its border to Greater Sydney, the Central Coast, Blue Mountains, Wollongong and Shellharbour.

Victoria and Tasmania have barred entry to residents from the City of Sydney, Randwick, Inner West, Woollahra, Waverley, Canada Bay and Bayside.

ACT have issued state-at-home orders for anyone entering the region from those seven LGAs while the Northern Territory has declared Greater Metropolitan Sydney, as well as the Blue Mountains and Wollongong local government areas as hot spots.

South Australia has now closed its border to NSW after increase Covid-19 cluster. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Kelly Barnes

Masks at all indoor venues and no travel outside Sydney

The new restrictions apply to the seven LGAs, which came into effect at 4pm on Wednesday, lasting for one week:

• Household visitors will be limited to five guests, including children

• Masks will be compulsory in all indoor non-residential settings, including workplaces, and at organised outdoor events

• Drinking while standing at indoor venues will not be allowed

• Singing by audiences at indoor shows or by congregants at indoor places of worship will not be allowed

• Dancing will not be allowed at indoor hospitality venues or nightclubs however, dancing is allowed at weddings for the bridal party only (no more than 20 people)

• Dance and gym classes limited to 20 per class (masks must be worn)

• The one person per four square metre rule will be reintroduced for all indoor and outdoor settings, including weddings and funerals

• Outdoor seated events will be limited to 50 per cent seated capacity

• Previous public transport capacity limits, represented by green dots, will be reintroduced

• If you live or work in the City of Sydney, Waverley, Randwick, Canada Bay, Inner West, Bayside, and Woollahra local government areas, you cannot travel outside metropolitan Sydney for non-essential travel

– With Ally Foster