‘External interference’: Preliminary report releases initial findings for Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash

Azerbaijan Airlines has released its preliminary report on a plane crash that killed 38 people and which Moscow is increasingly being blamed for.

As mystery still swirls about how an aeroplane crashed in Kazakhstan killing over half the passengers, the airline involved has given the clearest indication yet of what the cause may have been.

It comes as those on the plane have spoken of an “external strike” as the plane flew over Russia which led to injuries on-board. The jet then began lurching “as if it were drunk,” and people began praying.

A preliminary investigation by Azerbaijan Airlines has stated that, “physical and technical external interference,” likely brought down the jet in which 38 of the 69 passengers perished.

While unofficial leaks from Azerbaijani authorities have pointed the finger at Moscow for the plane’s downing, the report is the first official comment on the cause of the crash.

The Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet near the western Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25, 2024. (Photo by Issa Tazhenbayev / AFP)

The report doesn’t directly blame Russia but it adds credence to the theory that a missile from an air defence system hit the jet in error while it tried to land in the southern Russian city of Grozny.

Immediately after the Christmas Day crash, Russia cited a bird strike as the possible cause, and then on Thursday The Kremlin urged people to steer clear of “hypotheses,” until an investigation was completed.

But in a sign Moscow may inch towards some kind of acknowledgment of its involvement, the head of Russia’s aviation regulator said the situation around Grozny was “very complicated” at the time.

The jet’s erratic journey from Baku to Grozny and then across the Caspian Sea to Aktau. Picture: FlightRadar24.

Crash

Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8342 left the Azerbaijani capital of Baku for Grozny, in Russia’s Chechnya region, on Wednesday morning.

While the plane was mostly carrying Azerbaijani passengers, 16 on board were Russian citizens.

The Embraer E190 encountered heavy fog. Unable to land at Grozny or any other Russian airport, it diverted from its route and flew away from Russia across the Caspian Sea.

Russian GPS jamming compromised its navigation and meant the jet vanished from flight tracking systems.

It attempted to land in Aktau, in Kazakhstan’s southwest, but broke apart and erupted in flames.

Most of the 29 survivors were in the less damaged rear of the plane.

Embraer jets have a good safety record. Azerbaijan Airlines is a well-respected central Asian airline.

Azerbaijan believes Russian air defence system led to jet crash – reports

‘External interference’

The airline has not specific what exactly the “external interference” it referred to in the report was.

On Thursday, various news outlets reported Azerbaijani government officials as saying the plane was unintentionally fired upon in Russia by air defence systems. There were reports that earlier in the day, Ukraine had sent drones towards Chechnya and neighbouring areas.

Damage to the plane’s fuselage, which is lying a few meters from the Caspian Sea coast, show punctures to the metal skin that aviation experts have interpreted as possible shrapnel damage from a missile.

Citizens lay flowers in memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 at the Heydar Aliyev International Airport on December 26, 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan. (Photo by Aziz Karimov/Getty Images)

Passengers’ speak

According to the BBC, flight attendant Zulfuqar Asadov told local media that the plane was “hit by some kind of external strike”.

“The impact of it caused panic inside. We tried to calm them down, to get them seated. At that moment, there was another strike, and my arm was injured.”

Subhonkul Rakhimov, a passenger, told news agency Reuters that he began to pray and “prepare for the end,” after he heard a loud bang.

“It was obvious that the plane had been damaged in some way,” he said.

“I thought the plane was going to fall apart. It was as if it was drunk – not the same plane anymore.”

Azerbaijan Airlines has now suspended flights to seven cities in Russia for “security reasons”.

Russia has closed air space and airports to civilian planes close to Ukraine’s borders. But Ukraine’s drones have regularly been able to make it deeper inside Russia. Israel’s El Al has also suspended flights to Russia.

‘Complicated’: Russia

A large number of airlines now avoid – or are banned from – Russian air space altogether.

Moscow has said any Judgement on the crash should wit until the investigation is complete.

Azerbaijani media has said that Russia and Kazakhstan proposed that grouping of former Soviet states investigate the crash. They, as well as Azerbaijan, were all once part of the USSR and controlled from Moscow.

But Azerbaijan has said no and stated it wants an international inquiry whose members go beyond ex-Soviet countries.

The Head of Russia’s aviation agency Rosaviatsia said on Friday that conditions around Grozny were “very complicated” on the day of the crash and that a “closed-skies protocol” was enacted.

“Ukrainian combat drones were launching terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure in the cities of Grozny and Vladikavkaz,” Dmitry Yadrov said.

“In addition, there was dense fog in the area of Grozny airport.”

However questions remain as to how a civilian airliner could have strayed into an area where air defence systems were actively in use. And why the Azerbaijan Airlines plane was not given permission to land in Russia given the emergency and instead flew out to sea.